Be Prepared and stay prepared!!!!!
The 2011 Atlantic Hurricane season is expected to see comparableactivity to a number of active seasons since 1995, due to the expected continuation of above-average sea surface temperatures in the Tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, which are conducive to a more active season. To date we have seen nine named storms so far.The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season was significantly more active than the normal season. 19 tropical storms developed, tying with 1995 for the third highest number of storms on record, 12 of the storms became hurricanes – five of which were major hurricanes at category three or higher. The active 2010 season was credited to the warm sea surface temperatures. Weather experts have updated their 2011 Atlantic hurricane season outlook by raising the number of expected named storms from its pre-season outlook issued in May. Forecasters also increased their confidence that 2011 will be an active Atlantic hurricane season. “The atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean are primed for high hurricane activity during August through October,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center. “Storms through October will form more frequently and become more intense than we’ve seen so far this season.” Key climate factors predicted in May continue to support an active season. These include: exceptionally warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures (the third warmest on record); reduced vertical wind shear and lower air pressure across the tropical Atlantic also favor an active season. Based on these conditions and on climate model forecasts, the confidence for an above-normal season has increased from 65 percent in May to 85 percent. Also, the expected number of named storms has increased from 12-18 in May to 14-19, and the expected number of hurricanes has increased from 6-10 in May to 7-10. Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the whole season – June 1 to November 30 – the updated seasonal outlook projects, with a 70 percent probability, a total of:
- 14 to 19 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
- 7 to 10 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
- 3 to 5 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)