Month: August 2016

THIS IS MONTSERRAT'S PUBLIC WEATHER FORECAST FOR TODAY AND AND UP TO 8AM THURSDAY 1ST SEPTEMBER 2016  .

GENERAL SITUATION: Ridge of high pressure dominating the atmosphere will continue to restrict significant shower activity across the the Islands. However, by tomorrow a westward moving tropical wave entering the area will increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms.

A weak area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is located over the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands.

Meteorologist/Climatologist Dale Destin for the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service Climate Section says a weather disturbance coming off West Africa will likely cause a scare to residents of the northeast Caribbean early next week.

He says two of the more reliable weather models are forecasting this disturbance to become tropical storm or hurricane later this week and track in the direction of the islands.

The preliminary forecast track has it moving on a westerly path, in line with the Leeward Islands, which includes Antigua and Barbuda. However, just before reaching the islands, it’s forecast to turn right or north away from the islands, which should spare us its wrath.

Twenty-one years ago from September 5, 2016, Antigua and Barbuda experienced one of the most powerful hurricanes in its history – Category 4 Hurricane Luis. It brought death and major destruction to the islands. It left in its wake three dead and around US$350 million dollars in damage. It is easily our costliest hurricane in history.

The system that could cause us some stress is not being forecast to be a Luis, God forbid! However, its potential path and timing are reminiscent of Luis. It could be nearest us around September 5, just that this time, it should turn away sooner than Luis did and spare us this time.

Monday's Temps Partly Cloudy High 31°C 88°F Low 27°C 81°F
Synopsis:  Ridge of high pressure over the Northeast Caribbean will continue to cause dry and stable atmospheric conditions to over the islands restricting shower activity to a minimum. Weather:  Today: Partly sunny with the chance of isolated showers. Tonight: Partly cloudy with the chance of isolated showers. Winds:  ESE at 06-12kts/(11-22km/h) over land and peaking to near 13kts/(24km/h) over coastal waters... Seas:  Slight to moderate with heights 0.9-1.5m or 3-5ft. Continue reading

Today’s programme features an interview with Director of the Montserrat Disaster Managment Coordination Agency (DMCA) Billy Darroux. In this edition, he explains some of the common terms or phrases used during the annual Hurricane season and also highlights the importance of being prepared in the event of a storm or a hurricane. Click the orange play button below to hear the full programme…

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA) is warning residents not to attempt crossing the Belham Valley.

Director of the DMCA Billy Darroux said overnight rains from a tropical wave with an associated broad area of low pressure generated a large mudflow in the valley.

Mr Darroux added as result there was significant erosion to the paths used to access Isle Bay Hill and Cork Hill from the Old Gulf Course and the road from Happy Hill and Dr Woods to travel to Corkhill.

He also confirmed that sharp drop-offs of the eroded area in the valley posed a serious danger to persons walking or standing close to the edge of the valley.

The DMCA is also discouraging persons from sightseeing in the Belham Valley and not to drive down the Happy Hill road which is severely damaged.

According to Mr Darroux, there’s still potential for rain which can further impact the Belham Valley resulting in lahars with little or no warning, making the area more dangerous.

John A Osborne Airport confirmed that 49.1 milimetres of rain fell from 2 pm August 23^rd, 2016 to 8 am August 24, 2016.

Satellite images, surface observations, and radar data indicate that a broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is located over the northern Leeward Islands.

Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated overnight and are showing signs of organization, but the system still appears to lack a well-defined circulation.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Fiona, located several hundred miles north of the Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 450 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands is associated with a tropical wave.

Environmental conditions are somewhat conducive for development of this system during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph near the northern Leeward Island and the Greater Antilles. Large-scale conditions could become more conducive later this week while the system moves near Hispaniola and then the Southeastern and Central Bahamas.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this disturbance later this morning. Interests from the islands of the northeastern Caribbean Sea to the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Gusty winds, heavy rains, and possible flash floods and mud slides could occur over these areas regardless of tropical cyclone formation.

Two tropical disturbances in the Atlantic Ocean may become a tropical depression or storm.

One system poses a Caribbean heavy rain threat no matter whether it develops or not.

Today's programme features an interview with Operations and Logistics Officer Kelvin White at the Disaster Managment Coordination Agency (DMCA)

In this edition, Mr White speaks about the role of the District Disaster Chairpersons in a disaster or an emergency situation on Montserrat and moving to a hurricane or emergency shelter during or after hazardous events.

Click the orange play button below to hear the full programme…