Month: August 2016

PUBLIC NOTICE: 31ST AUGUST, 2016

by Shirlian Queeley

THIS IS MONTSERRAT'S PUBLIC WEATHER FORECAST FOR TODAY AND AND UP TO 8AM THURSDAY 1ST SEPTEMBER 2016  .

GENERAL SITUATION: Ridge of high pressure dominating the atmosphere will continue to restrict significant shower activity across the the Islands. However, by tomorrow a westward moving tropical wave entering the area will increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms.

WEATHER:   TODAY: Sunny to partly cloudy with the chance of some light and brief passing showers...    TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with the chance of some brief and light passing showers.

WINDS: ENE-E at 12-18kts/(22-33km/h) over land and peaking to near 20kts/(37km/h) over coastal waters..

SEAS: Moderate to locally rough waves/swells 1.5-2.1m or 5-7ft. A small craft advisory is in effect for the coastal waters east and north of the islands..

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE: Above normal.

DMCA KEEPING AN EYE ON INVEST 92L NEAR COAST OF AFRICA THAT COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM

by Shirlian Queeley

A weak area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is located over the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands.

Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more favorable for some gradual development of this system late this week while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic.

Details on potential land impacts, if any, in the Caribbean or elsewhere are far too early to call.

It's far too early to know whether this system will eventually threaten any land in a significant way. This, of course, assumes it will develop in the first place as computer model forecast guidance had suggested for the last few days.

The atmospheric pattern this week will feature the Bermuda-Azores high becoming stronger and building westward across the Atlantic Ocean.

This will steer 92L toward the west or west-northwest on the southern periphery of the aforementioned central Atlantic high.

Essentially, there is no escape route for this system to move northwest and then north into the central Atlantic, as occurred with Hurricane Gaston.

High pressure will be locked in place across the Atlantic, forcing this new system westward later in the week.

Therefore, interests in the eastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of this potential system throughout the week ahead. Any potential impact would not arrive in parts of the Lesser Antilles until late this weekend or early next week.

POTENTIAL HURRICANE SCARE EARLY NEXT WEEK

by Shirlian Queeley

Meteorologist/Climatologist Dale Destin for the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service Climate Section says a weather disturbance coming off West Africa will likely cause a scare to residents of the northeast Caribbean early next week.

He says two of the more reliable weather models are forecasting this disturbance to become tropical storm or hurricane later this week and track in the direction of the islands.

The preliminary forecast track has it moving on a westerly path, in line with the Leeward Islands, which includes Antigua and Barbuda. However, just before reaching the islands, it’s forecast to turn right or north away from the islands, which should spare us its wrath.

Twenty-one years ago from September 5, 2016, Antigua and Barbuda experienced one of the most powerful hurricanes in its history – Category 4 Hurricane Luis. It brought death and major destruction to the islands. It left in its wake three dead and around US$350 million dollars in damage. It is easily our costliest hurricane in history.

The system that could cause us some stress is not being forecast to be a Luis, God forbid! However, its potential path and timing are reminiscent of Luis. It could be nearest us around September 5, just that this time, it should turn away sooner than Luis did and spare us this time.

Local Weather Forecast for Montserrat Valid up to 8 am tomorrow Tuesday 30th August 2016

by Shirlian Queeley
Monday's Temps Partly Cloudy
High 31°C 88°F
Low 27°C 81°F

Synopsis:  Ridge of high pressure over the Northeast Caribbean will continue to cause dry and stable atmospheric conditions to over the islands restricting shower activity to a minimum.

Weather:  Today: Partly sunny with the chance of isolated showers.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with the chance of isolated showers.

Winds:  ESE at 06-12kts/(11-22km/h) over land and peaking to near 13kts/(24km/h) over coastal waters...

Seas:  Slight to moderate with heights 0.9-1.5m or 3-5ft.

Prepare and Prevent – DMCA’s Weekly Radio Programme

by Shirlian Queeley
Today’s programme features an interview with Director of the Montserrat Disaster Managment Coordination Agency (DMCA) Billy Darroux. In this edition, he explains some of the common terms or phrases used during the annual Hurricane season and also highlights the importance of being prepared in the event of a storm or a hurricane. Click the orange play button below to hear the full programme…

Residents cautioned against crossing Belham Valley

by Shirlian Queeley

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA) is warning residents not to attempt crossing the Belham Valley.

Director of the DMCA Billy Darroux said overnight rains from a tropical wave with an associated broad area of low pressure generated a large mudflow in the valley.

Mr Darroux added as result there was significant erosion to the paths used to access Isle Bay Hill and Cork Hill from the Old Gulf Course and the road from Happy Hill and Dr Woods to travel to Corkhill.

He also confirmed that sharp drop-offs of the eroded area in the valley posed a serious danger to persons walking or standing close to the edge of the valley.

The DMCA is also discouraging persons from sightseeing in the Belham Valley and not to drive down the Happy Hill road which is severely damaged.

According to Mr Darroux, there’s still potential for rain which can further impact the Belham Valley resulting in lahars with little or no warning, making the area more dangerous.

John A Osborne Airport confirmed that 49.1 milimetres of rain fell from 2 pm August 23rd, 2016 to 8 am August 24, 2016.

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES MAY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM

by Shirlian Queeley

Satellite images, surface observations, and radar data indicate that a broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is located over the northern Leeward Islands.

Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated overnight and are showing signs of organization, but the system still appears to lack a well-defined circulation.

Although environmental conditions are currently only marginally conducive for additional development, this system could become a tropical depression at any time during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph across the northern Leeward Islands, near or over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Bahamas.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance late this morning. Gusty winds, heavy rains, and possible flash floods and mudslides are expected to occur over portions of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern and Central Bahamas.

8 AM ADVISORIES FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA AND TROPICAL STORM GASTON

by Shirlian Queeley

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Fiona, located several hundred miles north of the Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 450 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands is associated with a tropical wave.

Environmental conditions are somewhat conducive for development of this system during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph near the northern Leeward Island and the Greater Antilles. Large-scale conditions could become more conducive later this week while the system moves near Hispaniola and then the Southeastern and Central Bahamas.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this disturbance later this morning. Interests from the islands of the northeastern Caribbean Sea to the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Gusty winds, heavy rains, and possible flash floods and mud slides could occur over these areas regardless of tropical cyclone formation.

ONE OF TWO TROPICAL DISTURBANCES IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM AS EARLY AS MONDAY

by Shirlian Queeley

Two tropical disturbances in the Atlantic Ocean may become a tropical depression or storm.

One system poses a Caribbean heavy rain threat no matter whether it develops or not.

Two disturbances in the central and Eastern Atlantic Ocean, Invest 99-L and Invest 90-L, are being monitored for potential development into the next tropical depression or tropical storm over the next few days.

“Invest 99-L” is currently a tropical wave -- an area of low pressure without a closed, counterclockwise surface circulation -- located about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

The National Hurricane Center says this system has a medium chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next five days.

For now, a tight consensus of our guidance suggests the disturbance should continue in a general west or west-northwest trajectory the next several days. It should reach the Lesser Antilles by late Tuesday or early Wednesday and then spread through the northeast Caribbean Islands into Thursday.

“Invest 90-L” may have some dry air to fend off the next day or so, due to another Saharan Air layer.

However, the majority of the National Hurricane Center forecast guidance is suggesting 90-L is likely to develop into a tropical storm, perhaps as early as Monday.

In general, the atmospheric steering pattern in the Atlantic Ocean late this week suggests 90-L would eventually get drawn northwest into the central Atlantic Ocean, roughly analogous to Fiona, potentially becoming a hurricane.

Prepare and Prevent – DMCA’s Weekly Radio Programme

by Shirlian Queeley

Today's programme features an interview with Operations and Logistics Officer Kelvin White at the Disaster Managment Coordination Agency (DMCA)

In this edition, Mr White speaks about the role of the District Disaster Chairpersons in a disaster or an emergency situation on Montserrat and moving to a hurricane or emergency shelter during or after hazardous events.

Click the orange play button below to hear the full programme…