Month: April 2017

PUBLIC INFORMATION RADIO PROGRAM: FCO DISASTER MANAGEMENT ADVISER VISITS MONTSERRAT

by Shirlian Queeley

In this edition of the Disaster Management Coordination Agency's (DMCA) radio programme: “PREPARE AND PREVENT”, we bring to you an interview with the new Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) Disaster Management Adviser for the Caribbean Overseas Territories and Bermuda Jon Snell.

While, on Montserrat, Mr Snell met with Tony Bates, the UK Policy Adviser to the Governor of Montserrat and Head of the Governor's office on behalf of Her Excellency, the Governor Elizabeth Carrier and Director of the Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA Billy Darroux.

He also visited emergency support facilities at the DMCA, critical infrastructure sites and was fully briefed by the Disaster Management.

Speaking on Prepare and Prevent, Mr Snell says he plans to develop a five-year strategic plan to strengthen the Caribbean Overseas Territories and Bermuda capacity to prepare and respond effectively to natural disasters and emergencies to minimize loss of life and property, economic dislocation, and disruption of community life.

Click below to hear the full interview…

TODAY’S LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST FOR MONTSERRAT VALID UP TO WEDNESDAY APRIL 26TH, 2017 8 AM

by Shirlian Queeley

SYNOPSIS: Weak instability currently over the Leewards is forecast to decrease today and cause a more stable environment to prevail over these islands and this will keep rainfall activity minimal

WEATHER: Today: Mostly cloudy with a chance of light showers in the morning become partly sunny by this afternoon

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of a brief shower

WINDS: East to east-southeast at 8-16knots or 15-30km/h.

SEAS: Moderate: heights 1.5m or 5ft.

TODAY’S LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST FOR MONTSERRAT VALID UP TO WEDNESDAY APRIL 26TH, 2017 8 AM

by Shirlian Queeley

SYNOPSIS: Weak instability currently over the Leewards is forecast to decrease today and cause a more stable environment to prevail over these islands and this will keep rainfall activity minimal

WEATHER: Today: Mostly cloudy with a chance of light showers in the morning become partly sunny by this afternoon

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of a brief shower

WINDS: East to east-southeast at 8-16knots or 15-30km/h.

SEAS: Moderate: heights 1.5m or 5ft.

MONTSERRAT VOLCANO OBSERVATORY (MVO) WEEKLY REPORT FOR PERIOD APRIL 14TH -21ST, 2017

by Shirlian Queeley

Activity at the Soufrière Hills Volcano remains low.

The seismic network recorded one rockfall and four volcano-tectonic earthquakes this week.

No measurements of the SO2 flux have been possible since January 21 2017.

Pyroclastic flows can occur at any time without warning on any side of the volcano, including Gages from where they can travel rapidly into Plymouth. Tracks across the Belham Valley can be destroyed or heavily modified by flash flooding or lahars, and caution should be exercised crossing the valley during and after rainfall.

The Hazard Level is 1. There is no public access to Zone V, including Plymouth. Maritime Zones E and W are daytime transit only between sunrise and sunset (boats may sail through the zone but must not stop). Anyone who ignores these restrictions is liable to be prosecuted.

TODAY’S LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST FOR MONTSERRAT VALID UP TO TUESDAY APRIL 25TH, 2017 8 AM

by Shirlian Queeley

SYNOPSIS: Cloudiness, instability and marginal atmospheric moisture ahead of a low pressure system to the west of the area will continue to linger over and around the islands today and tonight, thus maintaining a moderate chance for shower activity during that time.

WEATHER: Mostly cloudy skies today and tonight with a moderate chance for a couple of brief passing showers today and a higher chance for some widely scattered showers tonight into tomorrow.

SPECIAL WARNINGS: Small craft operators and sea bathers should continue to exercise caution.

Winds: ESE at 26-37km/h or 14-20kts.

Seas: Moderate to locally rough, swells 1.2-1.8m or 4-6ft. Small craft operators and sea bathers should continue to exercise caution.

TODAY’S LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST FOR MONTSERRAT VALID UP TO SATURDAY APRIL 22ND, 2017 8 AM

by Shirlian Queeley

SYNOPSIS: A LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS AS A RESULT OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE AREA.

WEATHER: TODAY: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF FEW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TONIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY.

WINDS: ENE - E 10-15KTS 0R 19 TO 28 KM/H.

SEAS: SLIGHT TO MODERATE WAVES 1.2 TO 1.5M OR 4 TO 5 FT.

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE NO THREAT TO LAND: FIRST APRIL SYSTEM IN ATLANTIC SINCE 2003

by Shirlian Queeley

Subtropical Depression One, the first system of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, formed Wednesday, becoming the first subtropical or tropical cyclone to roam the Atlantic basin in April since Ana in 2003.

It's also the third straight year a system has formed in the Atlantic before the official June 1 start of the hurricane season.

Subtropical Depression One was centered over 700 miles west-southwest of The Azores in the central Atlantic Ocean, with maximum sustained winds estimated at 35 mph.

A small increase in winds to 40 mph would allow this system to be upgraded to Subtropical Storm Arlene, but that is currently not expected to happen, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) says. Little change in strength is expected, and the depression will have no direct impact on any land areas.

Subtropical Depression One will not have a long existence. Another non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to absorb the depression by early Friday.

TODAY’S LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST FOR MONTSERRAT VALID UP TO FRIDAY APRIL 21ST, 2017 8 AM

by Shirlian Queeley

SYNOPSIS: Average to low moisture levels will continue to inhibit shower activity. Possible rainfall accumulation is 0 to 1 mm (0 to 0.04 inch).

WEATHER TODAY: Mostly sunny.

WEATHER TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with a 10% (slight) chance of showers.

WINDS: East-northeast at 9 to 19 km/h or 5 to 10 knots.

SEAS: Moderate not exceeding 1.5 metres or 5 feet.

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC… CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO

by Shirlian Queeley

A non-tropical low pressure system is located over the central Atlantic a little more than 700 miles southwest of the Azores.

There has been a small increase in organization during the past few hours, and a subtropical depression is likely to form later today before the system becomes absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone on Thursday.

Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent

Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

If this subtropical depression or storm develops this week in the Atlantic, it would be rare for April.

Ana in 2003 was the last April named storm to roam the Atlantic Basin. Ana started out as a subtropical storm on April 20, 2003, and soon gained full tropical characteristics. That made Ana the only tropical storm on record to form in the Atlantic Basin in April.

There have been numerous seasons that started early. On a long-term average, a tropical system forms prior to June about once every 10 years, and these storms tend to be relatively weak, due in part to cooler sea-surface temperatures.

TODAY’S LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST FOR MONTSERRAT VALID UP TO THURSDAY APRIL 19TH, 2017 8 AM

by Shirlian Queeley

SYNOPSIS: Stable atmospheric conditions will dominate weather conditions over the Leewards and BVI today and tonight.

WEATHER: Today: Partly cloudy in the morning with sunnier periods this afternoon; any shower will be brief and isolated.

TONIGHT: Fair to partly cloudy with a slight chance of a brief early morning shower.

SPECIAL WARNINGS: Warnings remain in place mainly for sea bathers along the eastern coastal area of the Leewards.

WINDS: East- northeast at 8-16knots or 15-28km/h with lighter spells overnight.

SEAS: Moderate to rough: heights between 1.8-2.4m or 6-8ft today decreasing to 1.5m or 5ft by tomorrow. Warnings remain in place mainly for sea bathers along the eastern coastal area of the Leewards.