Month: June 2017

TROPICAL WAVE AFFECTING MONTSERRAT -BRIEF THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE

by Shirlian Queeley

HERE'S A LOOK AT THE WEATHER IN MONTSERRAT TODAY VALID UP TO 8 AM FRIDAY JUNE 30TH, 2017

SYNOPSIS: Moisture and instability associated with a tropical wave will linger over the Leewards today and tonight and will maintain above normal cloudy condition over these islands.

WEATHER: TODAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered morning showers and a chance of a brief thunderstorm. A reduction in shower activity is expected by this afternoon

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy in the evening with decreasing clouds overnight and a chance of brief widely scattered overnight showers

SPECIAL WARNING: A caution remains in effect for small craft operators against marginally safe seas.

WINDS: East to east-southeast at an average between 11-14 knots or 20-26 km/h.

SEAS: Moderate: Heights between 1.5-1.8m or 5-6ft; A caution remains in effect for small craft operators against marginally safe seas.

MONTSERRAT VOLCANO OBSERVATORY (MVO) WEEKLY REPORT FOR THE PERIOD JUNE 16 TO 23RD, 2017

by Shirlian Queeley

Activity at the Soufrière Hills Volcano remains low.

The seismic network recorded two volcano-tectonic earthquakes this week.

No measurements of the SO2 flux are available since 13 June. Pyroclastic flows can occur at any time without warning on any side of the volcano, including Gages from where they can travel rapidly into Plymouth. Tracks across the Belham Valley can be destroyed or heavily modified by flash flooding or lahars, and caution should be exercised crossing the valley during and after rainfall. The Hazard Level is 1. There is no public access to Zone V, including Plymouth. Maritime Zones E and W are daytime transit only between sunrise and sunset (boats may sail through the zone but must not stop). Anyone who ignores these restrictions is liable to be prosecuted.

TODAY’S LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST FOR MONTSERRAT VALID UP TO SATURDAY JUNE 24TH, 2017

by Shirlian Queeley

SYNOPSIS: A weak low to mid-level trough will move over the Leewards today and tonight but because of marginal moisture levels, rainfall activity will be restricted

WEATHER: Today: Partly cloudy to sometimes locally cloudy with a chance of brief passing showers

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to sometimes locally cloudy with a chance of brief passing showers

WINDS: Generally easterly at average speeds between 10-12knots or 19-22km/h over land 12 -14knots or 22-26km/h over coastal waters.

SEAS: Moderate with heights not exceeding 1.5m or 5ft.

TODAY’S LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST FOR MONTSERRAT VALID UP TO FRIDAY JUNE 23RD, 2017

by Shirlian Queeley

SYNOPSIS: A slight increase in moisture and instability will increase the chances for cloudiness and brief showers today.

WEATHER: Skies will be partly cloudy to cloudy with scattered brief showers this morning with a gradual improvement throughout the course of the day. Tonight will be partly cloudy with isolated brief showers.

WINDS: ENE-E at 8-15 kt, 15-28 km/h.

SEAS: Moderate with waves 1.5m/5ft.

TODAY’S LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST FOR MONTSERRAT VALID UP TO THURSDAY JUNE 22ND, 2017

by Shirlian Queeley

SYNOPSIS: A strong area of high pressure along with a settled and an atmosphere low on moisture will dominate the Northeast Caribbean.

WEATHER:

TODAY: Partly sunny and hazy with the chance of a brief and light shower.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with the chance of a couple of brief passing showers.

SPECIAL WARNINGS: A small craft warning remains in effect especially for the coastal waters east and north of the islands. Sea bathers should also exercise caution.

WINDS: Easterly at 19-30 km/h or 10-16kts over land and increasing to near 33 km/h or 18kts over coastal waters.

SEAS: Moderate to locally rough waves 1.5-2.1m or 5-7ft. A small craft warning remains in effect especially for the coastal waters east and north of the islands. Sea bathers should also exercise caution.

TROPICAL STORM BRET BECOMES EARLIEST NAMED STORM SO FAR SOUTH IN THE ATLANTIC – MONTSERRAT CAN EXPECT SHOWERS AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY

by Shirlian Queeley

An unusually strong system for June will pass through the southern part of the Windward Islands with tropical storm conditions through Tuesday.

The system strengthened into Tropical Storm Bret on Monday afternoon. Since Bret formed prior to June 22, it has become the earliest named storm to form in this part of the Atlantic since official records were kept in 1851.

Because of the compact nature of the storm, adverse conditions are likely to hug the coast of Venezuela, while moving on a westward path through the southern part of the Windward Islands and a portion of the Leeward Antilles.

People on the islands from Trinidad and Tobago to Grenada, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, St. Lucia, Margarita and Tortuga can expect showers and gusty thunderstorms through Tuesday.

Bathers and boaters should heed all advisories as seas and surf will be dangerous.

Rain is generally needed on these islands since they receive little rain on an annual basis. However, too much rain can fall too fast and lead to flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall will average 2-4 inches with locally higher amounts possible.

MONTSERRAT VOLCANO OBSERVATORY (MVO) WEEKLY REPORT FOR THE PERIOD JUNE 9 TO 16TH, 2017

by Shirlian Queeley

Activity at the Soufrière Hills Volcano remains low.

The seismic network recorded three volcano-tectonic earthquakes this week.

Measurements of the SO2 flux were made using the helicopter on 13 June. A total of nine traverses beneath the plume were carried out, with an average SO2 flux of 161 tonnes per day. Pyroclastic flows can occur at any time without warning on any side of the volcano, including Gages from where they can travel rapidly into Plymouth. Tracks across the Belham Valley can be destroyed or heavily modified by flash flooding or lahars, and caution should be exercised crossing the valley during and after rainfall.

The Hazard Level is 1. There is no public access to Zone V, including Plymouth. Maritime Zones E and W are daytime transit only between sunrise and sunset (boats may sail through the zone but must not stop). Anyone who ignores these restrictions is liable to be prosecuted.

TODAY’S LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST FOR MONTSERRAT VALID UP TO WEDNESDAY JUNE 20TH, 2017

by Shirlian Queeley

SYNOPSIS: A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERATE A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS ACTIVITIES, FEW PASSING SHOWERS COULD ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

WEATHER: TODAY: PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY, WITH A CHANCE OF FEW PASSING SHOWERS. TONIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY.

SPECIAL WARNINGS: AN ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS AND SEA BATHERS MAINLY ON THE NORTHERN SIDES OF THE ISLANDS.

WINDS: E 12-18 KTS OR 22-33KM/H AND REACHING UP TO 22KTS OR 41 KM/H OVER COASTAL WATERS.

SEAS: MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH WAVES 1.5 TO 2.1M OR 5 TO 7 FT. AN ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS AND SEA BATHERS MAINLY ON THE NORTHERN SIDES OF THE ISLANDS.

TWO DISTURBANCES ALREADY IN THE ATLANTIC BASIC FOR JUNE

by Shirlian Queeley

On this Friday morning, the National Hurricane Centre (NHC) is monitoring two areas over the Atlantic basin. One is a tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. The associated cloudiness and showers have become better organized since yesterday, and additional slow development is possible during the next few days while the wave moves westward at 15-20 mph over the tropical Atlantic.

The second area is the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan peninsula, where a broad area of low pressure is expected to form during the next day or two. Conditions appear to be favourable for the gradual development of this system while it moves slowly northwestward into the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week.

“HURRICANE WATCH” – WHAT TO DO

by Shirlian Queeley

When a Hurricane Watch is issued, it means that the hurricane is a threat but there is no certainty that it will hit the island. You must start preparing necessary supplies and securing your home. At this time, you should also:

* Fill your car with petrol and check your battery, water and oil.

* Check your flashlights, candles and lamps (have spare batteries, bulbs and matches).

* Listen to your Radio and TV constantly for weather reports.

* Locate your containers for storing drinking water and label them.

* Pack a survival kit.

* Make sure you have an adequate supply of any prescription medication you may be using.

* Organize your family. Ensure everyone knows the plan.

* Secure canned and non-perishable food.

* Make arrangements to have your pets cared for. If you plan to evacuate.