Month: August 2017

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY  ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA MET SERVICES

by Shirlian Queeley

THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES IS FOLLOWING THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE IRMA LOCATED ABOUT 1845 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARDS ISLANDS. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST THROUGH TO EARLY FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE IRMA POSES NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. HOWEVER, THERE IS EVERY INDICATION THAT THE SYSTEM IS POISED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AND SOME PREDICTIONS ARE PLACING IT IN OUR AREA BY LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

RESIDENTS SHOULD BE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM AND IN ADDITION, TO CLOSE MONITORING, SHOULD START REVIEWING THEIR DISASTER PLANS IN THE EVENT THEY ARE REQUIRED.

DMCA CLOSELY MONITORS TROPICAL STORM IRMA, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY

by Shirlian Queeley

Irma is centered over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean as of 5 a.m. AST/EDT about 590 miles (950 km) west of the Cabo Verde Islands.

A west-northwestward motion is expected today and tonight, followed by a generally westward motion on Friday.

Irma is not an immediate threat to land.

The next advisory will be issued at 11 am.

TODAY’S LOCAL WEATHER FOR MONTSERRAT VALID UP TO 8 AM TOMORROW FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 1ST, 2017

by Shirlian Queeley

SYNOPSIS: A dry and stable atmosphere associated with a dominant ridge will keep shower activity low across the islands.

WEATHER:

TODAY: Sunny to partly sunny with a low chance of showers.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with the chance of showers remaining low.

WINDS: ENE at 15-24 km/h or 8-13kts over land and increasing to near 28 km/h or 15kts over coastal waters.

SEAS: Slight to moderate waves 1.2-1.5m or 4-5ft.

DMCA CLOSELY WATCHING A TROPICAL WAVE JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF WESTERN AFRICA – 70 % CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION IN 5 DAYS

by Shirlian Queeley
A tropical wave and associated low pressure area located just offshore of the coast of western Africa, producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This system has become better organized since yesterday, and a tropical depression could form in a few days over the eastern Atlantic. The low is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic during the next several days. Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible in portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. SOURCE: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Hurricane Center

MONTSERRAT VOLCANO OBSERVATORY WEEKLY REPORT FOR THE PERIOD AUGUST 18TH TO 25TH 2017

by Shirlian Queeley

Activity at the Soufrière Hills Volcano remains low.

The seismic network recorded one rockfall this week.

Measurements of the SO2 flux were made using the helicopter on 23 August. A total of nine traverses beneath the plume were carried out, with an average SO2 flux of 438 tonnes per day.

Pyroclastic flows can occur at any time without warning on any side of the volcano, including Gages from where they can travel rapidly into Plymouth. Tracks across the Belham Valley can be destroyed or heavily modified by flash flooding or lahars, and caution should be exercised crossing the valley during and after rainfall.

TODAY’S LOCAL WEATHER FOR MONTSERRAT VALID UP TO 8 AM TOMORROW TUESDAY AUGUST 29TH, 2017

by Shirlian Queeley

SYNOPSIS: Lingering moisture and instability associated with the passage of a tropical wave will continue to affect the area. Possible rainfall total for the forecast period is 0 to 5 mm (0 to 0.20 inch).

WEATHER TODAY: Occasionally cloudy with a 70 percent or high chance of showers with the slight chance of thunderstorms mainly this morning.

WEATHER TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with a 20 percent or a slight chance of showers.

WINDS: East-southeasterly at 6 to 15 km/h or 3 to 8 knots with lighter spells at times.

SEAS: Slight to moderate with heights not exceeding 1.2 metres or not exceeding 4 feet. 

TODAY’S LOCAL WEATHER FOR MONTSERRAT VALID UP TO 8 AM TOMORROW SATURDAY AUGUST 26TH, 2017

by Shirlian Queeley

SYNOPSIS: A dry and stable airmass sitting over the Northeast Caribbean ahead of a low level trough will maintain a low chance of showers over the islands today. The trough moving over the area tonight and overnight with weak instability and shallow available moisture will increase the chance of some brief passing showers.

WEATHER:

TODAY: Partly sunny with a low chance of showers.

TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT: Cloudy with a moderate chance of showers.

WINDS: ENE at 13-24 km/h or 07-13kts over land and increasing to near 28 km/h or 15kts over coastal waters..

SEAS: Slight to moderate waves 1.2-1.5m or 4-5ft.

TODAY’S LOCAL WEATHER FOR MONTSERRAT VALID UP TO 8 AM TOMORROW FRIDAY AUGUST 25TH, 2017

by Shirlian Queeley
SYNOPSIS: A ridge of high pressure is the dominant feature. WEATHER: Skies today and tonight will be partly cloudy with a low chance of isolated showers.
WINDS: ENE-E at 8-15 kt, 15-29 km/h. SEAS: Moderate with heights 1.5m/5ft. ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE: Below normal. SUNSET TODAY: 6:28 pm. SUNRISE TOMORROW: 5:55 am. Source: Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services
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TODAY’S LOCAL WEATHER FOR MONTSERRAT VALID UP TO 8 AM TOMORROW THURSDAY AUGUST 24TH, 2017

by Shirlian Queeley

SYNOPSIS: A surface trough, stemming from an upper level low pressure system, is expected to cause some instability across the area today; otherwise, relatively stable weather will prevail. The possible rainfall total for the forecast period is 1 to 10 mm (0.04 to 0.40 in).

WEATHER TODAY: Cloudy at times with a 70 percent or a high chance of showers and a 30 percent or moderate chance of thunderstorms.

WEATHER TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with a 10 percent or a slight chance of showers.

WINDS: East-southeasterly at 9 to 24 km/h or 5 to 13 knots.

SEAS: Slight with heights of less than 1.2 metres or less than 4 feet.

TODAY’S LOCAL WEATHER FOR MONTSERRAT VALID UP TO 8 AM TOMORROW WEDNESDAY AUGUST 23RD, 2017

by Shirlian Queeley

SYNOPSIS: Notwithstanding the presence of a low pressure system in the vicinity, low humidity levels will result in minimum shower activity. Possible rainfall total for the forecast period is 0 to 5 mm (0 to 0.25 inch).

WEATHER TODAY: Partly sunny with a 30 percent or moderate chance of showers.

WEATHER TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with a 30 percent or a moderate chance of showers.

WINDS: East-northeasterly at 7 to 19 km/h or 4 to 10 knots with lighter spells at times.

SEAS: Slight to moderate with heights not exceeding 1.2 metres or not exceeding 4 feet.