Month: August 2018

NEAR-NORMAL AMOUNTS OF HURRICANE ACTIVITY FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS

by Shirlian Queeley
Meteorologists at the Colorado State University forecast that the next two weeks will be characterized by near-normal amounts of hurricane activity. The August 30th to September 12th, 2018 most recent seasonal forecast calls for a below-average season.
The hurricane experts say they believe that the next two weeks will be more active than the full seasonal average due to more conducive sub-seasonal conditions. According to the Colorado State University, this two-week forecast is based on a combination of observational and modeling tools. The primary tools that are used for this forecast are as follows: 1) current storm activity, 2) National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlooks, 3) forecast output from global models, 4) the current and projected state of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and 5) the current seasonal forecast. The next two-week forecast will be issued on September 13th for the September 13th to 26th period. Additional two-week forecasts will be issued on September 27th and October 11th. SOURCE: Philip J. Klotzbach1 and Michael M. Bell2

MONTSERRAT’S NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST VALID UP TO 8 AM SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 1ST, 2018

by Shirlian Queeley
SYNOPSIS: As a tropical wave moves further away from the Leewards, it has now been replaced by a drier and more stable atmosphere associated with a high pressure ridge which will restrict shower activity over and around the area today and tonight. Meanwhile trailing moisture from this wave will maintain a moderate chance for showers across the BVI.
WEATHER TODAY: Partly sunny skies with a 20 percent or slight chance of a brief morning shower. WEATHER TONIGHT: Mostly fair skies. WINDS: East-northeast at 19 to 33 km/h or 10 to 18 knots with lighter spells overnight.. SEAS: Moderate with significant wave heights of 1.2 to 1.5 metres or 4 to 5 feet. SUNSET TODAY: 6:23 pm. SUNRISE TOMORROW: 5:56 am. Please continue to monitor ZJB Radio, DMCA’s website at www.dmca.gov.ms and Facebook at Montserrat Disaster Management Coordination Agency-DMCA for regular updates. SOURCE: Antigua Meteorological Services

BULLETIN ON POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX ADVISORY

by Shirlian Queeley
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM ...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 18.4W ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Cabo Verde Islands has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the southern islands of Santiago, Fogo and Brava. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Santiago * Fogo * Brava A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM , the disturbance was centered near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 18.4 West. The system is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move near or over the southern Cabo Verde Islands on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm during the next day or so. Environmental conditions are favourable for the system to become a tropical cyclone tonight or Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The system could produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the southern Cabo Verde Islands. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods. WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the southern Cabo Verde Islands on Friday.

MONTSERRAT NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST VALID UP TO 8 AM FRIDAY AUGUST 31ST, 2018

by Shirlian Queeley
SYNOPSIS: A tropical wave along with favourable middle to upper levels winds will keep atmospheric conditions unsettled, mainly today. Possible rainfall for the forecast period is 5 to 15 mm or 0.20 to 0.60 inch.
WEATHER TODAY: Mostly cloudy with a 90 percent or a very high chance of showers and thunderstorms. WEATHER TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with a 60 percent or a moderate chance of showers before midnight. WINDS: East at 19 to 33 km/h or 10 to 18 knots with strong gusts at times. SEAS: Moderate with significant wave heights of 1 to 1.5 metres or 3 to 5 feet. SUNSET TODAY: 6:24 pm. SUNRISE TOMORROW: 5:56 am. Please continue to monitor ZJB Radio, DMCA’s website at www.dmca.gov.ms and Facebook at Montserrat Disaster Management Coordination Agency-DMCA for regular updates.

HERE ARE SOME TIPS FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE PLANNING TO TRAVEL DURING THE PEAK HURRICANE SEASON

by Shirlian Queeley
According to Travel and Leisure, while, travelling off-season can often mean getting lower prices and enjoying popular hotspots without the crowds, in some destinations it can put you at risk of coming into contact with a hurricane. He says knowing how to best avoid putting yourself in this situation — and what to do if you end up in a hurricane anyway — is crucial. Travel and Leisure spoke to Dr. Rick Knabb, a hurricane expert with The Weather Channel, to get his top tips on what you can do to try and ensure a hurricane-free vacation, and what to do to keep safe if you get caught in the midst of one. Below, you’ll find out what to do about grounded flights, destroyed hotels, loss of power, and other hurricane-related travel issues to help ensure a safe and smooth trip. KNOW YOUR TIMING According to Knabb, nearly all countries in and around the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, the Atlantic Ocean, and the eastern and central Pacific Ocean are susceptible to tropical storms and hurricanes, with the hurricane season typically running from June to November. While forecasts and predictions can shift, having sources to turn to when planning your trip can be a valuable starting point. Some websites we recommend that track local weather patterns include nhc.noaa.gov (the National Weather Service’s National Hurricane Center), and both cdema.organd stormcarib.com for local weather reports in the Caribbean. GET TRAVEL INSURANCE Having travel insurance can stop you from spending an “exorbitant amount of money” if unexpected weather occurs, Knabb said. Travel insurance can cover lost costs from a flight, cruise, or hotel cancellations, but you’ll want to buy it before a storm hits or is predicted, as this can severely limit your available options, according to travel insurance comparison website InsureMyTrip. If you’re wondering whether buying insurance is the right choice for you, InsureMyTrip has the right questions to ask yourself, along with suggestions of some of the top plans for hurricane coverage. And you’ll want to bring your insurance plan document with you on your trip, or at least have your confirmation policy and policy number on-hand, as you’ll often be asked to include these when calling your insurance company if a storm arrives. PACK SMART Knabb recommends having a small stash of “critical items” that include solar battery-powered USB chargers, cash in U.S. and the foreign currency (since ATMs and credit cards often won’t be able to be used during and immediately after a storm), a battery-powered radio, a battery-powered flashlight or lantern, toiletries, and antibacterial wipes. He also suggests bringing a first-aid kit, bottled water, and non-perishable foods, or buying them right when you get to your destination if you can’t pre-pack them to avoid crowds at local stores once a storm is looming. Finally, Knabb recommends filling your prescriptions and getting your medications before your trip, especially if they’re difficult to obtain in foreign destinations. STAY CONNECTED Having the contact information for the U.S. consulate of the country you’ll be travelling to is always a good idea in case you need help or expert advice. They can tell you where to go for shelter in case a hurricane does strike. Make sure to sign up for the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) to get relevant information about safety conditions in your destination and helps the U.S. embassy or consulate get in touch with you during an emergency. Finally, leave a family member or friend who won’t be joining you with your trip details and contact information, and make sure to charge your phone. Knabb told T+L texting is often the first form of communication to come back up after a storm. KEEP YOUR DOCUMENTS ON YOU You’ll want to keep crucial travel and identification documents, like your passport, on you so you don’t lose them once chaos strikes in the middle of a storm. Keep them in Ziploc bags to ensure they stay dry. BE THE FIRST TO LEAVE IS POSSIBLE You’ll also want to avoid driving on any even partially flooded roads, as Knabb says most inland flood fatalities tend to occur in vehicles. In fact, Knabb recommends trying to leave early once a storm threatens the area you’re traveling in to avoid the big crowds that will also be attempting to leave once a hurricane is confirmed. KNOW ABOUT HURRICANE POLICIES Do some digging into hurricane policies, as certain airlines, hotels, and tour operators will offer either perks or free rebookings when hurricanes strike. For example, American Airlines issues travel alerts as soon as they see a storm of any magnitude approaching its destinations and airports, allowing you to quickly rebook or connect through alternate hubs both before and after your scheduled departure date. If a flight is cancelled or significantly delayed with American due to hurricanes, customers will be able to cancel their itinerary and get a full refund. Meanwhile, tour operators like Travel Impressions offer travel protection plans that allow you to cancel your trip for a variety of reasons starting at just $59.

DMCA IS MONITORING A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ABOUT TO COME OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA WITH A 50% CHANCE OF BECOMING A STORM IN 5 DAYS

by Shirlian Queeley
A low pressure area is forecast to form between the coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands in association with a tropical wave that is expected to move off the west coast of Africa late Thursday or early Friday. Additional development is anticipated, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the system moves west-northwestward near the Cabo Verde Islands. Interests in those islands should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL IS AFFECTING MONTSERRAT TODAY; CONTINUE TO EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS

by Shirlian Queeley
HERE'S THE REST OF MONTSERRAT NATIONAL FORECAST VALID UP TO 8 AM THURSDAY AUGUST 30TH, 2018 SYNOPSIS: An active tropical wave is affecting the area and could result in moderate to heavy showers at times with possible rainfall total of 7 to 15 mm or 0.30 to 0.60 inch, hence minor flooding could occur.
Weather today: Generally cloudy with periodic showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms Weather tonight: Generally cloudy skies with periodic showers and a moderate chance of thunderstorms. SPECIAL WARNING: A small craft advisory is in effect for the coastal waters on the Atlantic side of the islands. Winds: Easterly with speeds ranging between 19 to 33 km/h or 10 to 18 knots with higher gusts during showers. Seas: Moderate with significant wave heights of 1.5 to 2.1 metres or 5 to 7 feet. A small craft advisory is in effect for the coastal waters on the Atlantic side of the islands. Sunset today: 6:25 pm.      Sunrise tomorrow: 5:56 am.

MONTSERRAT VOLCANO OBSERVATORY (MVO) WEEKLY REPORT FOR THE PERIOD AUGUST 17TH TO AUGUST 24TH, 2018

by Shirlian Queeley
Activity at the Soufrière Hills Volcano remains low. The seismic network recorded one rockfall and one volcano-tectonic earthquake this week.
There have been no measurements of the SO2 flux to report since 30 May. Data from the new permanent gas-monitoring stations, which are currently being tested, indicate that the flux remains in the range 100 to 400 tonnes per day. Pyroclastic flows can occur at any time without warning on any side of the volcano, including Gages from where they can travel rapidly into Plymouth. Tracks across the Belham Valley can be destroyed or heavily modified by flash flooding or lahars, and caution should be exercised crossing the valley during and after rainfall. The Hazard Level is 1. There is no public access to Zone V, including Plymouth. Maritime Zones E and W are daytime transit only between sunrise and sunset (boats may sail through the zone but must not stop). Anyone who ignores these restrictions is liable to be prosecuted.

TODAY’S LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST VALID UP TO 8 AM TUESDAY AUGUST 28TH, 2018

by Shirlian Queeley
SYNOPSIS: Weak moisture and instability associated with a tropical wave will result in a moderate chance for showers over and around the islands at times during the next 24 hours. WEATHER TODAY: Partly cloudy skies with periods of increased cloudiness and a 50 percent or moderate chance for showers. WEATHER TONIGHT: Partly cloudy skies with a 50 percent or moderate chance for showers mainly before midnight. WINDS: East at 19 to 30 km/h or 10 to 16 knots with higher gusts over open waters.. SEAS: Moderate with significant wave heights not exceeding 1.5 metres or 5 feet.. SUNSET TODAY:6:26 pm  SUNRISE TOMORROW: 5:56 am