Month: September 2018

POST TROPICAL STORM LESLIE TO CAUSE A MINI SWELLMAGEDDON ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN

by Shirlian Queeley

Dale Destin, Meteorologist/Climatologist for the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service Climate Section says ex-Tropical Storm Leslie is about to cause a mini Swellmageddon across much the Caribbean, after the passage of Kirk.

He says the system is expected to be a major swell-maker, which will become very evident in 24 hours; hence, Swimming conditions at many beaches will become very hazardous.

According to Destin, currently, Leslie is not a tropical cyclone. It transitioned into an extratropical cyclone, a few days ago. However, it has not gone any place. The cyclone is forecast to be resurrected. She will strengthen, return to tropical cyclone status in the next 48 hours and eventually become the sixth hurricane for the season.

The hurricane-force winds, to be produced by the cyclone, will never reach us, but they will push, dangerous and damaging sea swells to our shorelines, particularly the Atlantic-facing ones.

Swells are forecast to steeply climb to 3 metres (10 feet) on Saturday. These large and dangerous battering swells are expected to pommel our shorelines over the upcoming weekend before subsiding to safe levels by mid next week.

Recall the swell event I dubbed Swellmageddon earlier this year – March 4-7, 2018. It was a swell episode of epic proportion – almost unheard of in the Caribbean. This upcoming swell episode is not expected to be as severe, but it won’t be your garden-variety event either.

The large swells will produce even higher breaking swells or surfs, which could be as much as twice the height of the swells. This means that surfs are expected to range between 3 and 6 metres (10 to 20 feet) this weekend, depending on the bathymetry/topography of the near shore seafloor. This is expected to cause some beach closures, as swimming conditions will become very dangerous for beachgoers, by tomorrow.

This mini Swellmageddon will likely, among other things, also cause:

major beach erosion; flooding of some low-lying coastal roads; disruptions to marine recreation and businesses; disruptions to potable water from desalination; damage to coral reefs and Financial losses.

Advisories have already been issued by a few of the region’s national meteorological services. More advisories and or warnings are expected to be issued over the upcoming days. This event will be felt as far west as the Bahamas and as far south as Guyana, Brazil and beyond. The event will also be felt along the East Coast of the United States, Canada and perhaps, as far away as, West Africa.

The impact on shorelines will not be the same everywhere. Depending on the depth and the natural shelter of the coastal waters, the impact will be different. Shallow north-facing shorelines are expected to see the highest swells and surfs. Surfs could rise to as high as 6 metres (20 feet), at some locations.

In open waters, the swells from Mini Swellmageddon will be virtually harmless to small craft operators, as they will be long-period waves with gentle gradients.

There is no chance of any of the destructive winds, from the cyclone at the centre of this significant swell event, reaching the Caribbean. Normal seasonal winds will prevail.

SMALL CRAFT AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MARINERS AND BEACH GOERS RESPECTIVELY

by Shirlian Queeley
HERE’S THE REST OF THE MONTSERRAT NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST VALID UP TO SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 29TH, 2018 AT 8AM
SYNOPSIS: Tropical storm Kirk has now moved into the eastern Caribbean Sea however, unstable conditions in its wake are likely to cause some unsettled weather across the area today. Possible rainfall total for the forecast period is 5 to 15 mm or 0.2 to 0.6 inch; hence minor flooding is possible. Weather today: Generally cloudy with an 80 percent or a very high chance of showers and a 50 percent or a moderate chance of thunderstorms. Weather tonight: Partly cloudy with a 30 percent or a low chance of showers. SPECIAL WARNING: A small craft warning and high surf advisory remain in effect for mariners and beach goers respectively. Winds: Southeasterly with speeds ranging between 15 to 33 km/h or 8- 18 knots, and occasionally gusting higher. Seas: Rough with significant wave heights of 2.7 to 3.4 metres or 9 to 11 feet in open waters and surfs breaking as high as 2.1 metres or 7 feet mainly on the north and eastern side of the islands. A small craft warning and high surf advisory remain in effect for mariners and beachgoers respectively. Sunset today: 6:01 pm. Sunrise tomorrow: 5:59 am.

DMCA ADVISES RESIDENTS TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL KIRK UNTIL IT EXITS THE AREA AND TO TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS DEPENDING ON THEIR VULNERABILITY

by Shirlian Queeley

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA) is monitoring the progress of Tropical Storm Kirk, which is expected to pass well to the south of us, between St. Lucia and Martinique. However, according to the Antigua Meteorological Services, we will experience some moderate to heavy showers and gusty winds late Thursday into early Friday September 28th. The Antigua Met indicated that on Tropical Storm Kirk’s current track, its center and tropical storm force winds will pass at a safe enough distance to the south of the forecast area. However, spiral bands associated with the storm are likely to bring cloudy skies with moderate to heavy showers and gusty winds to the island late Thursday into early Friday September 29th. Total rainfall accumulation of 1 to 2 inches with a maximum of 4 inches in isolated amounts is possible. It stated that marine conditions will further deteriorate later on tonight into early Friday September 29th; hence, small craft warnings are in effect against hazardous sea conditions. Residents and visitors are advised to closely monitor the progress of Kirk until it exits the area and to take the necessary precautions depending on their vulnerability. Residents and visitors are also warned to stay away from coastal areas across Montserrat because of the potential effects of storm surges. Residents in Isles Bay Hill and other persons crossing the Belham Valley River are asked to take extra precautions during heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Kirk, due, to the possibility of lahars occurring with little or no warning in the area. Motorists are asked to drive with due care and attention and be mindful of areas prone to landslides and rockfalls.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR DANGEROUS HIGH SURFS PRODUCED BY BREAKING SWELLS ON THE SHORES OF THE ISLAND

by Shirlian Queeley
HERE'S THE REST OF THE MONTSERRAT NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST VALID UP TO FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 28TH, 2018 AT 8AM
SYNOPSIS: The presence of Saharan dusts along with an atmosphere low on moisture will restrict shower activity and produce hazy conditions across the region during the morning. Some bands of moisture and instability surging ahead of Tropical Storm Kirk this afternoon and tonight will increase the chance of shower and thunderstorm activity along with the prevailing winds. Possible rainfall total for this afternoon and tonight is 5 to 12 mm or 0.20 to 0.50 inch. WEATHER TODAY: Cloudy and hazy with a 30 percent or low chance of showers during the morning. Skies will remain cloudy this afternoon with showers and a 40 percent or moderate chance of thunderstorms. WEATHER TONIGHT: Overcast with showers and a 60 percent or moderate chance of thunderstorms. WINDS: East-Northeast at 26 to 46 km/h or 14 to 25 knots. Some higher gusts in showers are likely tonight.. SPECIAL WARNINGS: A small craft advisory remains in effect for hazardous wave conditions while a high surf advisory remains in effect for dangerous high surfs produced by breaking swells on the shores of the island.. SEAS: Rough with a combination of wind-driven waves and swells 2.1 to 2.8 metres or 7 to 9 feet. A small craft advisory remains in effect for hazardous wave conditions while a high surf advisory remains in effect for dangerous high surfs produced by breaking swells on the shores of the island.. SUNSET TODAY: 6:01 pm. Sunrise tomorrow: 5:59 am. Please continue to monitor ZJB Radio, DMCA’s website at www.dmca.gov.ms and Facebook at Montserrat Disaster Management Coordination Agency-DMCA for regular updates.

TROPICAL STORM KIRK STRENGTHENS SOME MORE, BUT, LITTLE ADDITIONAL CHANGE IN STRENGTH EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY

by Shirlian Queeley
Current Location...12.5N 55.0W ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM E OF BARBADOS ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
Interests elsewhere in the central and northern Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Kirk as additional warnings or watches could be issued later today. At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 55.0 West. Kirk is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center will move over the Lesser Antilles within the Tropical Storm Warning area Thursday night. Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast until Kirk crosses the Lesser Antilles, followed by weakening over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter observations is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area by Thursday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Thursday afternoon or evening. RAINFALL: Kirk is expected to produce total rainfall of 4 to 6 inches across the northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands with isolated maximum totals up to 10 inches across Martinique and Dominica. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

TROPICAL STORM KIRK A LITTLE STRONGER…

by Shirlian Queeley
Current Location: 12.1N 54.3W ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM ESE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES At 1100 AM: the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 54.3 West. Kirk is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center will move over the Lesser Antilles within the Tropical Storm Warning area Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast until Kirk crosses the Lesser Antilles, followed by weakening over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter observations is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area by Thursday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Thursday afternoon or evening. RAINFALL: Kirk is expected to produce total rainfall of 4 to 6 inches across the northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands with isolated maximum totals up to 10 inches across Martinique and Dominica. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND BREAKING SURFS ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SEA BATHERS AND SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS

by Shirlian Queeley
MONTSERRAT NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST VALID UP TO THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 27TH, 2018 AT 8AM  SYNOPSIS: Weak moisture along with a moderate to fresh trade wind flow ahead of Tropical Storm Kirk will maintain a moderate chance for shower activity over and around the islands today and tonight. WEATHER TODAY: Partly cloudy skies with a 40 percent or moderate chance for showers mainly before midday. WEATHER TONIGHT: Fair to partly cloudy skies with a 40 percent or moderate chance for overnight showers. SPECIAL WARNING: An advisory against breaking surfs and dangerous rip currents remains in effect for sea bathers at this time, and will also be in effect for small craft operators later this evening into tomorrow as Tropical Storm Kirk approaches the area.. WINDS: East-northeast at 22 to 33 km/h or 12 to 18 knots with higher gusts over open waters as well as during showers.. SEAS: Moderate to rough with significant wave heights of 1.5 to 2.4 metres or 5 to 8 feet. An advisory against breaking surfs and dangerous rip currents remains in effect for sea bathers at this time, and will also be in effect for small craft operators later this evening into tomorrow as Tropical Storm Kirk approaches the area.. Sunset today: 6:02 pm. Sunrise tomorrow: 5:59 am.

MONTSERRAT VOLCANO OBSERVATORY (MV0) WEEKLY REPORT SEPTEMBER 16TH TO SEPTEMBER 21ST, 2018

by Shirlian Queeley
  Activity at the Soufrière Hills Volcano remains low.
The seismic network recorded six volcano-tectonic earthquakes this week. There have been no measurements of the SO2 flux to report since 11 September. Data from the new permanent gas-monitoring stations, which are currently being tested, indicate that the flux remains in the range 100 to 400 tonnes per day. Pyroclastic flows can occur at any time without warning on any side of the volcano, including Gages from where they can travel rapidly into Plymouth. Tracks across the Belham Valley can be destroyed or heavily modified by flash flooding or lahars, and caution should be exercised crossing the valley during and after rainfall. The Hazard Level is 1. There is no public access to Zone V, including Plymouth. Maritime Zones E and W are daytime transit only between sunrise and sunset (boats may sail through the zone but must not stop). Anyone who ignores these restrictions is liable to be prosecuted.

MONTSERRAT NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST VALID UP TO TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 25TH, 2018, AT 8AM

by Shirlian Queeley
  SYNOPSIS: The presence of a weak trough coupled with moisture and instability associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Eleven will increase the chances for shower activity over and around the islands later today into tonight and tomorrow.
WEATHER TODAY: Partly sunny skies with periods of increased cloudiness and a 60 percent or moderate chance for showers mainly after midday. WEATHER TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with a 70 percent or high chance for more showers. WINDS: East at 15 to 26 km/h or 10 to16 knots with higher gusts during showers.. SEAS: Moderate with significant wave heights of 1.2 to 1.8 metres or 4 to 6 feet. Sea bathers should exercise caution.. SUNSET TODAY: 6:04 pm. SUNRISE TOMORROW tomorrow: 5:59 am. Please continue to monitor ZJB Radio, DMCA’s website at www.dmca.gov.ms and Facebook at Montserrat Disaster Management Coordination Agency-DMCA for regular updates.

MARINE WEATHER OUTLOOK MONDAY SEPTEMBER 24TH TO SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 30TH, 2018

by Shirlian Queeley
  Monday September 24th, 2018 6AM. 6PM. Seas.. are Northerly 3 to 4' N 3 to 4 feet. Winds. are Easterly @ 12 12 MPH. Skies.. are SUNNY all day, with PM. Rains..
Tuesday September 25th, 2018 Seas.. are Northerly 3 to 4' N 3 to 4 feet. Winds. are Easterly @ 8 to 12 E 8 to 12 MPH. Skies.. Overnight Rains, Partly Sunny as a Tropical Wave goes thru.. Wednesday September 26th, 2018 Seas.. are Northerly 4 to 5' 4 to 5 feet. Winds. are North-easterly @ 12 to 16 E 12 MPH. Skies.. Overnight rains, Cloudy.. Thursday September 27th, 2018 Seas.. are 4 to 5' 4 to 5 feet. Winds. are Easterly @ 12 E 8 to 12 MPH. Skies.. Partly Sunny.. Friday September 28th, 2018 Seas.. are 5 to 7' 5 to 7 feet. Winds. are North-easterly @ 12 NE 12 MPH. Skies.. Partly Sunny, with Early AM and Late PM. Rains, due to TD Kirk, moving into the area. Saturday September 29th, 2018 Seas.. are 6 to 8' NE 6 to 8 feet. Winds. are South-easterly @ 15 to 20 SE 10 to 16 MPH. Skies.. Cloudy with lots of Rains All day, due to TD Kirk, in the area.. Sunday September 30th, 2018 Seas.. are North-easterly 6 to 8' NE 6 to 8 feet. Winds. are Easterly @ 8 to 12 E 8 to 12 MPH. Skies.. Partly Cloudy. Please continue to monitor ZJB Radio, DMCA’s website at www.dmca.gov.ms and facebook at Montserrat Disaster Management Coordination Agency-DMCA for regular updates.