Month: January 2019

MONTSERRAT’S NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST VALID UP TO 8 AM FRIDAY FEBRUARY 1ST, 2019

by Shirlian Queeley
  SYNOPSIS: A low level trough will likely cause weak instability across the area, mainly this morning. Otherwise, sinking air will inhibit shower activity.
WEATHER TODAY: Mostly cloudy at first with a 70 percent or a high chance of showers, mainly before midday. Thereafter, skies will be partly sunny with a 10 percent or a slight chance of showers. WEATHER TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with a 40 percent or a moderate chance of showers, mainly after midnight. WINDS: East-northeast at 15 to 30 km/h or 8 to 16 knots, with occasional strong gusts to near 41 km/h or 22 knots. SEAS: 1 to 1.5 metres or 3 to 5 feet. Sunset today: 6:05 pm. Sunrise tomorrow: 6:38 am. TODAY'S TEMPS: HIGH: 29 °C/ 84 °F LOW: 22 °C/72 ° F

MONTSERRAT’S NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST VALID UP TO 8 AM THURSDAY JANUARY 31ST, 2019

by Shirlian Queeley
 

SYNOPSIS: Shallow moisture embedded within the trade wind flow will make for variably cloudy skies over the Leewards and BVI today and tonight

WEATHER TODAY: Partly cloudy to locally cloudy with a 40 percent or moderate chance of brief light showers

WEATHER TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with a 40 percent or moderate chance of brief light showers

WINDS: East-southeast with average speeds between 6 to 14 knots or 11 to 26 km/h becoming more easterly by tonight.

SEAS: 1.2 to 1.8 meters or 4 to 6 feet.

TODAY'S TEMPS:

HIGH: 29 °C/ 84 °F

LOW: 22 °C/72 ° F

Sunset today: 6:05 pm.                             Sunrise tomorrow: 6:40 am. 

MONTSERRAT TO BENEFIT FROM A REGIONAL FACT-FINDING STUDY TO DOCUMENT THE INFLUX OF SARGASSUM WEED IN THE CARIBBEAN WHICH WAS ALSO EXPERIENCED IN MONTSERRAT IN 2018

by Shirlian Queeley

In a press statement issued by The Caribbean Regional Fisheries Mechanism (CRFM) in January 2019, it has initiated a regional fact-finding study to document the record-breaking influx of Sargassum seaweed in the Caribbean Sea in 2018, and the impacts this phenomenon has been having on countries in the region since 2011.

The release stated that the fact-finding survey is funded by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), that has coordinated official development assistance from Japan to CARICOM States for over two decades.

According to the statement, over the past 7 years, massive Sargassum influxes have been having adverse effects on national and regional economies in the Caribbean, with substantial loss of livelihoods and economic opportunities, primarily in the fisheries and tourism sectors.

It added that the large Sargassum influxes had been experienced in this region in 2011, 2014 and 2015, but it reached unprecedented levels in 2018, with more Sargassum affecting the Caribbean for a longer period of time than had previously been observed.

The release further stated that it is estimated that clean-up could cost the Caribbean at least $120 million in 2018.

The CRFM Ministerial Council adopted the “Protocol for the Management of Extreme Accumulations of Sargassum on the Coasts of CRFM Member States” in 2016. The protocol has been guiding the drafting of national Sargassum management protocols for Grenada, St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, with support from the CC4FISH project, an initiative of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO).

Please continue to monitor DMCA ’s facebook page -Montserrat Disaster Management Coordination Agency -DMCA and website – www.dmca.gov.msand ZJB Radio Montserrat for regular updates.

MONTSERRAT’S NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST VALID UP TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY JANUARY 30TH, 2019

by Shirlian Queeley

SYNOPSIS: Relatively dry and stable conditions throughout the atmospheric column will keep shower activity across the area to a minimum for the forecast period.

WEATHER TODAY: Partly sunny with a 30 percent or low chance of showers.

WEATHER TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with a 20 percent or slight chance of showers.

WINDS: Easterly with speeds ranging between 15 to 30 km/h or 8 to 16 knots.

SEAS: 1.2 to 1.8 metres or 4 to 6 feet.

Sunset Today: 6:04 pm. Sunrise Tomorrow: 6:40 am.

TODAY'S TEMPS:

HIGH: 29 °C/ 84 °F

LOW: 20 °C/68 ° F

MONTSERRAT VOLCANO OBSERVATORY (MV0) WEEKLY REPORT JANUARY 18TH, 2019 TO JANUARY 25TH, 2019

by Shirlian Queeley
 

Activity at the Soufrière Hills Volcano remains low. The seismic network recorded one rockfall and six volcano-tectonic earthquakes this week.

Measurements of the SO2 flux were taken from the helicopter on 18 and 23 January. There were eight traverses on both days with an average flux of 355 tonnes per day on 18 January and 392 tonnes per day on 23 January.

Pyroclastic flows can occur at any time without warning on any side of the volcano, including Gages from where they can travel rapidly into Plymouth. Tracks across the Belham Valley can be destroyed or heavily modified by flash flooding or lahars, and caution should be exercised crossing the valley during and after rainfall.

The Hazard Level is 1. There is no public access to Zone V, including Plymouth. Maritime Zones E and W are daytime transit only between sunrise and sunset (boats may sail through the zone but must not stop). Anyone who ignores these restrictions is liable to be prosecuted.

7 DAY MONTSERRAT MARINE WEATHER FORECAST MON. JAN. 29th, 2019 TO SUN. FEB. 3RD, 2019

by Shirlian Queeley

Monday, January 28th, 2019 6AM. 6PM.                                                                                   Seas.. are 4 to 5' 4 feet high. Winds. are Easterly @ 16 E 12 MPH. Skies.. are mainly SUNNY.

Tuesday, January 29th, 2019 Seas.. are 3 to 4' 3 to 4 feet high. Winds. are Easterly @ 8 to 12 SE 12 MPH. Skies.. are Partly Cloudy with some possible showers between 11AM. and 2 PM...

Wednesday, January 30th, 2019 Seas.. are 3 to 4' 3 to 4 feet high. Winds. are Easterly @ 12 SE 12 MPH. Skies.. are Partly Cloudy

Thursday, January 31st, 2019 Seas.. are 4 to 5' 3 to 4 feet high. Winds. are Easterly @ 12 to 16 E 12 MPH. Skies.. are mainly SUNNY.

Friday, February 1st, 2019 Seas.. are 3 to 4' 3 to 4 feet high. Winds. are North-easterly @ 12 E 12 MPH. Skies.. are SUNNY, with an overnight shower.

Saturday, February 2nd, 2019 Seas.. are 3 to 4' 3 to 4 feet high. Winds. are Easterly @ 12 E 8 to 12 MPH. Skies.. are SUNNY, with an overnight shower.

ADVISORIES FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS AND SEA BATHERS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MONTSERRAT

by Shirlian Queeley

HERE'S THE REST OF MONTSERRAT’S NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST VALID UP TO 8 AM SATURDAY JANUARY 26TH, 2019

SYNOPSIS: A weak moisture boundary along with a moderate windflow will affect the Leewards and BVI today and into tonight

WEATHER TODAY: Partly cloudy to cloudy with a 60 percent or moderate chance of showers

WEATHER TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with a 40 percent or moderate chance of a brief shower

WINDS: Easterly at 10 to 18 knots or 19 to 33 km/h gusting higher at times.

SEAS: 1.8 to 2.8 meters or 6 to 9 feet with northerly swells between 1.5 to 1.8 meters or 5 to 6 feet. Advisories for small craft operators and sea bathers remain in effect.

Sunset Today: 6:02 pm. Sunrise Tomorrow: 6:41 am.

TODAY'S TEMPS:    HIGH: 29 °C/ 84 °F            LOW: 22 °C/72 ° F

SMALL CRAFT WARNINGS AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MONTSERRAT

by Shirlian Queeley
HERE'S THE REST OF MONTSERRAT’S NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST VALID UP TO 8 AM FRIDAY JANUARY 25TH, 2019 SYNOPSIS: Strong central Atlantic High pressure system will maintain a moderate to fresh breeze over the Leewards and their coastal waters today and tonight. These winds will push shallow clouds over these islands as well as generate hazardous marine conditions mainly in the waters north of these islands
WEATHER TODAY: Partly cloudy with a 20 percent or slight chance of a brief passing shower WEATHER TONIGHT: partly cloudy with a 20 percent or slight chance of a brief passing shower WINDS: East at average speeds between 12 to 18 knots or 22 to 33 km/h with occasional higher gust over coastal waters and elevated terrain. SEAS: 1.8 to 2.8 meters or 6 to 9 feet with northerly swells between 1.5 to 1.8 meters or 5 to 6 feet; A small craft warning and a high surf advisory remains in effect mainly for the north facing coastal water. Seas are safer for marine activity along the south and southwestern side of the islands.

MAJOR SWELL EVENT TO IMPACT THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHICH INCLUDES MONTSERRAT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY

by Shirlian Queeley

A major swell event is forecast to impact much of the Caribbean this week.

According to Dale Destin, Meteorologist/Climatologist for the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service Climate Section the swells are likely to exceed 2.5 metres (8 ft) and occasionally exceeding 3 metres (10 ft), coming out of the north.

He stated that these swells will result in dangerous surfs for beachgoers; hence, advisories and or warnings will be required.

The Meteorologist/Climatologist purported that the swell event will be generated by gale-force/storm-force winds, from a powerful low-pressure system, making its way across the northern North Atlantic.

He disclosed that this is the same system that dumped an obscene amount of snow – over 660 mm (26 in) across parts of the United States. Obviously, none of this weather will reach the Caribbean but the sea swells will.

Destin confirmed that the swells in and of themselves are not the real concern. The greater concern is the large breaking swells or high surfs that these swells will cause when they reach the shorelines across the region. Such long period swells can result in surfs as high as twice their heights i.e. up to 6 metres (20 ft).

He stated that the eventual height of the surfs is largely dependent on the bathymetry (shape and depth) of the nearshore coastal areas they interact with. Generally, the shallower the nearshore areas, the higher the surfs. The greatest impact will be on the north-facing beaches and coastlines.

According to the Meteorologist/Climatologist, the event has started across the Bahamas and will reach the western Caribbean by Tuesday. It will then spread to the Eastern Caribbean Wednesday, including Antigua and Barbuda, and the southern Caribbean on Thursday. Moderate swells and associated high surfs are also forecast to reach the coastline of northeast South America, including the Guyanas on Friday.

MONTSERRAT’S NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST VALID UP TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY JANUARY 23RD, 2019

by Shirlian Queeley
 

SYNOPSIS: A strengthening high pressure system will cause an increase in the wind flow across the area today and tonight. This flow could also transport shallow pockets of low level moisture over and around the islands at times which could lead to a moderate chance for brief showers.

WEATHER TODAY: Partly sunny skies with a 40 percent or moderate chance of brief passing showers.

WEATHER TONIGHT: Fair to partly cloudy and cool conditions with a 20 percent or slight chance of a brief shower.

WINDS: East-northeast at 19 to 33km/h or 10 to 18 knots..

SEAS: 1.2 to 2.1 metres or 4 to 7 feet. An advisory is now in effect for small craft operators and sea bathers..

Sunset Today: 6:01 pm. Sunrise Tomorrow: 6:41 am.

Please continue to monitor DMCA ’s facebook page -Montserrat Disaster Management Coordination Agency -DMCA and website – www.dmca.gov.msand ZJB Radio Montserrat for regular updates.