Day: September 2, 2019

DMCA MONITORS TWO (2) OF FOUR (4) DISTURBANCES

by Shirlian Queeley
One of the 2 disturbances has a 90 % chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in 5 days but it's forecast to turn North away from the islands. The other disturbance has a 30% chance of formation and may be a threat.
1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure system located about 300 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to show signs of organization. A tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so while the system moves generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible over the Cabo Verde Islands today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. 2. A broad area of low pressure located over the south-central Gulf of Mexico is producing a wide area of showers and thunderstorms. This system has become better organized since yesterday, and a tropical depression could form during the next few days while the low move slowly westward across the south-central and southwestern Gulf of Mexico toward the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. 3. A trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda. Although the associated showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization, the system does not have a well-defined surface center. The gradual development of this system is possible during the next few days while the disturbance moves slowly northward or north-northwestward. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

MONTSERRAT VOLCANO OBSERVATORY (MVO) WEEKLY REPORT FOR 23RD TO 30TH AUGUST 2019

by Shirlian Queeley

Activity at the Soufrière Hills Volcano remains low.

The seismic network recorded three volcano tectonic earthquakes this week.

Six traverses were done using the boat traverse method to measure SO2 flux values on 29th August. The average flux measured was 177 t/d.

The smell of gas was reported in northern parts of the island on Wednesday, 28th August. This was due to a southerly wind blowing the gas plume to the north. It does not represent a change in activity.

Pyroclastic flows can occur at any time without warning on any side of the volcano, including Gages from where they can travel rapidly into Plymouth. Tracks across the Belham Valley can be destroyed or heavily modified by flash flooding or lahars, and caution should be exercised when crossing the valley during and after rainfall.

The Hazard Level is 1. There is no public access to Zone V, including Plymouth. Maritime Zones E and W are daytime transit only between sunrise and sunset (boats may sail through the zone but must not stop). Anyone who ignores these restrictions is liable to be prosecuted.

AIR QUALITY REMAINS AT MODERATE LEVELS AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE A SOURCE OF HEALTH ISSUES FOR SOME

by Shirlian Queeley

Saharan Dust Air Quality Bulletin Issued By The Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service

Monday 2 September 2019

Air Quality Index (AQI) Based on Particulate Matter 2.5 (PM2.5) and 10 (PM10) Concentration

Synopsis: The AQI remains at moderate levels, as a result of Saharan dust. This will keep the risks elevated for health problems for unusually sensitive people, such as asthmatics.

The worst of it will be over the next 24 hours. Alert Level: II

Location: Antigua and Barbuda

AQI: 50 to 60

AQI category: Moderate

Timing: Until Tuesday

Sensitive groups: People with respiratory or heart disease, the elderly and children are the groups most at risk.

Health implications: Air quality is acceptable; however, for some pollutants there may be a moderate health concern for a very small number of people who are unusually sensitive to air pollution.

Caution: Unusually sensitive people such as active children and adults, and people with respiratory disease, such as asthma, should limit prolonged or heavy exertion.