Yellow Hill, Montserrat – August 31, 2020 – Disturbance 1 – A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea has changed little in organization since yesterday. However, environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves westward at at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in Jamaica, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and the Yucatan peninsula should monitor the progress of this disturbance.* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.
Disturbance 2 – An area of low pressure is located about 150 miles south-southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina. This system has become better organized overnight, and a tropical depression is likely to form within a day or so while the system moves northeastward, near but offshore of the southeastern coast of the United States, and then away from land. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
Disturbance 3- A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa in a couple of days. Gradual development of this system will be possible through the end of the week while it moves slowly westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.
Disturbance 4 – Another tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean, several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is producing little shower activity, and further development of this system is not expected. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.