THAT’S ACCORDING TO THE 5 PM TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE ALERT STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHICH INCLUDE MONTSERRAT AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

….JOSEPHINE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH…

AT 500 PM, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 50.6 WEST OR ABOUT 865 MILES ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND APPROXIMATELY 965 MILES ESE OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. JOSEPHINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH (26 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF JOSEPHINE IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).

BASED UPON THE LATEST POSITION AND ANALYSES, TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE WNW AND WILL PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY AT A SAFE DISTANCE AWAY. SOME CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS COULD STILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NO PARTICULAR ACTION IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM UNTIL IT CLEARS THE AREA.

REPEATING THE 5 PM POSITION…14.5N 50.6W, MOVEMENT WNW, MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH, MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT 11 PM ECT

FORECASTER ORVIN PAIGE

11:03 AM, THU, AUG 13, 2020 – DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE.

AT 11 AM, THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 49.2 WEST OR ABOUT …. 871 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND 1072 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LATEST SATELLITE WIND DATA HAS INDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH WITH STRENGTHENING ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 48HRS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB OR 29.68 INCHES.

ON THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF LEEWARDS ISLANDS AND VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE DISTANCE, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS. THEREFORE, ALL RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE MOVEMENT OF JOSEPHINE, MAINLY FOR ANY SOUTHERN SHIFT IN FORECAST TRACK THAT COULD BRING THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.

FORECASTER PATRICE EDWARDS

Yellow Hill, Montserrat – August 13, 2020: At 1100 AM, the center of Tropical Storm Josephine was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 49.2 West. Josephine is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days followed by a turn toward the northwest late this weekend or early next week.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

The DMCA will continue to monitor this system and provide updates as they become available.

SOURCE: NHC NOAA

THAT’S ACCORDING TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 ALERT STATEMENT BY THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AT 5:10 AM, THU, AUG 13, 2020.

THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS…DEPRESSION IS DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME BUT STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM…

AT 5:00 AM, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 47.9 WEST OR ABOUT 971 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND 1173 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).

ON ITS PRESENT TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS IN THE LEEWARD AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 FOR ANY CHANGE IN THE FORECAST CONDITIONS AS ANY SOUTHWARDS SHIFTING OF THE PROJECTED TRACK COULD BRING THE DEPRESSION CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THE ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVENTUAL WIND IMPACTS FROM THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME UP 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST FOR THE AREA.

RESIDENTS SHOULD HAVE THEIR HURRICANE PLANS COMPLETED AND BE PREPARED TO ACT.

FORECASTER LETITIA HUMPHREYS

THAT’S ACCORDING TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ALERT STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AT 5:00 PM ON WED, AUG 12, 2020 FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

DEPRESSION NOT YET A TROPICAL STORM…

AT 500 PM, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 45.7 WEST OR ABOUT 1220 MILES ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND APPROXIMATELY 1315 MILES ESE OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SIMILAR FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH THIS MOTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).

BASED UPON THE LATEST POSITION AND ANALYSES, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 IS LIKELY TO PASS AT A SAFE DISTANCE FROM THE LEEWARD ISLAND AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER GIVEN THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THESE SYSTEMS, A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK COULD BRING THE SYSTEM CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS. IT IS ALSO TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE SPECIFIC IMPACTS, IF ANY, THAT COULD OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE DEPRESSION. AS A RESULT, NO SPECIFIC ACTION IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN TO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

REPEATING THE 5 PM POSITION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11, 12.7N 45.7W, MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 MILES PER HOUR, MOVEMENT WEST NEAR 15 MILES PER HOUR. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB.

FORECASTER ORVIN PAIGE