Meteorologist/Climatologist for the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service Climate Section Dale Destin in his June updated forecast for the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season calls for an above normal activity (an active season) being most likely. The probability of this happening is virtually unchanged from his previous forecast – 45%.
It also calls for an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 114 (up 1), 13 named storms (up 1), 6 hurricanes (down 1) and 3 major hurricanes (up 1). Another way of interpreting my forecast is that it is calling for an above to near normal season – 80% probability.
A typical season has 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Major hurricanes have sustained wind speeds of at least 178 km/h or 111 miles per hour (e.g., Category 3 or higher), according to the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
According to other forecasts surveyed, the consensus is for an ACE of 114, 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes – above to near normal season, which is now almost identical to my forecast. However, regardless of the forecast, you should always prepare the same each season, as it only takes one hurricane to ruin your year and or life.
The Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1 and concludes November 30.
The next update will be issued around July 10.
Please continue to monitor DMCA ’s facebook page -Montserrat Disaster Management Coordination Agency -DMCA, twitter – https://twitter.com/DMCA_MONTSERRAT and our website – www.dmca.gov.ms and ZJB Radio Montserrat for regular updates.
SOURCE: Dale Destin, Meteorologist/Climatologist for the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service Climate Section