by Shirlian Queeley

One of the 2 disturbances has a 90 % chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in 5 days but it’s forecast to turn North away from the islands.

The other disturbance has a 30% chance of formation and may be a threat.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure system located about 300 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to show signs of organization. A tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so while the system moves generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible over the Cabo Verde Islands today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure located over the south-central Gulf of Mexico is producing a wide area of showers and thunderstorms. This system has become better organized since yesterday, and a tropical depression could form during the next few days while the low move slowly westward across the south-central and southwestern Gulf of
Mexico toward the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

3. A trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Bermuda. Although the associated showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization, the system does not have a well-defined surface center. The gradual development of this system is possible during the next few days while the disturbance moves slowly northward or north-northwestward. Interests
in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

4. A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands in a few days. Some gradual development of this disturbance will be possible late this week or over the weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.



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