THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHICH INCLUDES MONTSERRAT AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES IS CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL97, WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 48 HOURS AND IMPACT PARTS OF THE CARIBBEAN.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK, INTENSITY AND SIZE OF THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE, IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT WHAT EXACT TROPICAL-CYCLONE-HAZARD VALUES, IF ANY, ARE EXPECTED OR LIKELY TO OCCUR THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. NOTWITHSTANDING, THE DISTURBANCE COULD BE IN THE AREA FRIDAY/SATURDAY, AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, THE DISTURBANCE POSES LITTLE TO NO THREAT TO THE LEEWARD AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THUS, NO IMMEDIATE PREPARATIONS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. NOTWITHSTANDING, HAVE YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLANS PREPARED AND MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.

AT 8 AM, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL97, WAS LOCATED ABOUT 1620 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 20 MPH.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE AROUND 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND THE DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN A COUPLE DAYS.

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY PASS THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS; HOWEVER, ANY PERSISTENT WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK COULD BRING IT DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA AND THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AND A LOT OF TIME FOR UNEXPECTED CHANGES TO TAKE PLACE.

PLEASE NOTE THAT NO ALERTS, WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM CLOSELY AND HAVE THEIR HURRICANE PLANS PREPARED, IN THE EVENT THE SYSTEM TAKES AN UNEXPECTED PATH AND COME TOWARD THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.AN UPDATE WILL BE GIVEN AROUND 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON OR SOONER IF NEEDED.

FORECASTER DALE DESTIN

Photo Credits: TTWeatherCenter

Montserrat is already experiencing the effects of Disturbance 1 forecasted to bring increased rainfall over the next 24 hours to the island. Residents and visitors are asked to monitor the systems and stay prepared.

The DMCA will continue to provide regular updates until the system dissipates or passes us.

The National Hurricane Center issued the following advisories @ 8 am on the disturbances:

Disturbance 1 – A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Windward Islands. This system is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that continues to show some signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear generally favourable for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 20 mph. Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should closely monitor this system as it will likely be moving through that region on Friday. Formation chance through 48 hours…60%. Formation chance through 5 days…80%.

Disturbance 2 – Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical wave located just east of the Lesser Antilles. Significant development of this system is unlikely while it moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph, passing through the Lesser Antilles today and then across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea later this week. Regardless of development, this system could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Lesser Antilles during the next day or two. Formation chance through 48 hours…10%. Formation chance through 5 days…10%.

Partly cloudy to cloudy with a 60% chance of showers today and, small craft operators should be cautious against choppy seas.

Remember, the weather can change at a moment’s notice, Stay Ahead! Events such as flash floods can occur with little or no warning due to prolonged rain, rain showers in the higher elevations and the soil already saturated!

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA is closely monitoring a slow developing disturbance which is expected to reach the Lesser Antilles which includes Montserrat by Wednesday night.Residents and visitors are asked to be vigilant and stay prepared.

The National The National Hurricane Centre @ 8 am issued the following advisory for the disturbance:

A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is producing a small cluster of showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. Some slow development is possible through the end of the week while this system moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at about 20 mph, likely reaching the Lesser Antilles Wednesday night. Formation chance through 48 hours…20%. Formation chance through 5 days…40%

Partly sunny with a 40% chance of showers.

Remember, the weather can change at a moment’s notice, Stay Ahead! Events such as flash floods can occur with little or no warning due to prolonged rain, rain showers in the higher elevations and the soil already saturated!

Seas, moderate, waves up to 4.9 feet or 1.5 metres!

Winds, fresh to strong, easterly, 18 to 24 knots!

Remember, Think about boat safety and plan your trip before you go. Knowledge and planning reduce the risks and increase the fun. Always tell someone where you will be going, when you expect to return, and what your boat looks like. Keep in mind that there might not be cell phone coverage where you are heading!

Disturbance1: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern Atlantic are associated with a strong tropical wave. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur during the next several days due to marginally conducive environmental conditions. This wave is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical eastern and central Atlantic through the middle of next week. Formation chance through 48 hours…10%. Formation chance through 5 days…20%.

The DMCA will continue to provide regular updates until the system dissipates or passes us. We would like to encourage residents to take proactive steps now to ensure that their homes, businesses, and families are well prepared for this year’s hurricane season.

2021 Hurricane Preparedness Guide – English

2021 Hurricane Preparedness Guide – Spanish

2021 Hurricane Preparedness Guide – Haitian Creole

The tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the Windward Islands poses no threat to Montserrat at this time as upper-level winds are expected to keep the system from strengthening.

The National Hurricane Centre @ 2 pm issued the following advisories for the two (2) disturbances:

Disturbance1 – Recent visible satellite imagery indicates a weak area of low pressure has formed along a tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the Windward Islands. However, shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this low is limited. Increasing upper-level winds are likely to prevent further development of this system as it moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. Formation chance through 48 hours..10%. Formation chance through 5 days…10%.

Disturbance 2- A strong tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa over the next day or so. Some gradual development of this system is possible by early next week while moving generally westward over the far eastern Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours…near 0%. Formation chance through 5 days…20%.

The DMCA will continue to provide regular updates until the systems dissipate or pass us.