Be Prepared, Stay Prepared, It Only Takes One!

58 years old, on Friday, 17 September 1965, Pan-American Airways Boeing 707 Jet, crashed in Chance’s Mountain in the southern part of Montserrat, killing all 21 passengers and 9 crew members on board.

The aircraft, was on a flight from Fort-de-France, Martinique to Coolidge International Airport in Antigua and Barbuda when it crashed into Chances Peak.

While on approach to Coolidge International Airport in stormy weather, at an altitude of 2,760 ft, the aircraft hit the 3,002 ft high Chances Peak and caught fire. The cause was determined to be poor visibility and pilot error: the crew made a navigational error and descended below the safe minimum altitude while unsure of their position.

The Pan Am Flight 292, final destination was New York City.

34 years old, Montserrat was devastated by Category 4 Hurricane Hugo on Sunday, 17 September 1989, with wind speeds recorded at an average of 145 mph, and wind gusts being measured at over 180 mph.

Ten people were killed, and 89 others were injured. 98% of all homes were damaged, leaving over 2,500 people homeless.

Many schools, hospitals, and churches were destroyed, along with the police department, the government headquarters, and the main power station; Monlec (MUL).

Electricity, water and telephone services were disrupted for weeks.

RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL95 AND ENSURE THAT THEY HAVE THEIR HURRICANE SEASON PLANS PREPARED.

Yellow Hill Road, Montserrat – Sunday, 3 September 2023: The Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA) is closely monitoring the progress of Tropical Disturbance AL95 located over the central Tropical Atlantic moving generally westward, and could become a Tropical Depression mid-week. Although, the seven-day forecast cone, or “cone of uncertainty” includes Montserrat, the system is not an immediate threat to the island at this time. The system’s odds of development in 7 days have increased to 90%. No watches or warnings are in effect for Montserrat.

Tropical Disturbance AL 95 located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have become better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further development, and this system is expected to become a tropical depression around midweek. Additional strengthening is likely late this week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the central and western portions of the tropical Atlantic.

Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 50 percent.
Formation chance through seven days: low, 90 percent.

Residents are encouraged to have their hurricane kits ready with enough supplies to last for at least three days, pay close attention to information, issued by the DMCA, and be prepared,

The DMCA will continue to monitor Tropical Disturbance AL95, and provide regular updates until the system passes Montserrat.

Yellow Hill Road, Montserrat – Sunday, 3 September 2023: The Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA) is closely monitoring the progress of Tropical Disturbance AL95 located over the central Tropical Atlantic moving generally westward and could become a Tropical Depression this week. The seven-day forecast cone, or “cone of uncertainty” includes Montserrat. The system’s odds of development in 7 days have increased to 80%.

Tropical Disturbance AL 95 is located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system has become better organized since yesterday, and environmental conditions appear conducive for further development this week. A tropical depression is likely to form around midweek while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the central and western portions of the tropical Atlantic.

Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 40 percent.

Formation chance through seven days: low, 80 percent.

Residents are encouraged to have their hurricane kits ready with enough supplies to last for at least three days, pay close attention to information, issued by the DMCA and be prepared.

DMCA will continue to monitor Tropical Disturbance 1 and provide regular updates until the system passes Montserrat.

Yellow Hill Road, Montserrat – Saturday, 2 September 2023: The Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA) is closely monitoring the progress of Tropical Disturbance 1 located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic moving generally westward with a high chance of development in 7 days. The seven-day forecast cone, or “cone of uncertainty” includes Montserrat, hence, Residents are encouraged to have their hurricane kits ready with enough supplies to last for at least three days, pay close attention to information, issued by the DMCA and be prepared.

Tropical Disturbance 1 is located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system by the middle part of next week, and a tropical depression is likely to form while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the eastern and central portions of the tropical Atlantic.

Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 20 percent.
Formation chance through seven days: low, 70 percent.

The DMCA will continue to monitor Tropical Disturbance 1 and provide regular updates until the system passes Montserrat.

Yellow Hill Road, Montserrat – Saturday, 19 August 2023: The Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA) continues to closely monitor the progress of Tropical Disturbance 3 ( AL90) near the Windward Islands now with a 60% chance of development in 7 days. The seven-day forecast cone, or “cone of uncertainty” includes Montserrat, hence, Residents are encouraged to have their hurricane kits ready with enough supplies to last for at least three days, pay close attention to information, issued by the DMCA and be prepared.

Tropical Disturbance 3 formed near the Windward Islands, shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organized since yesterday. Some additional development of this system is likely and a tropical depression could form by early next week while this system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, across the Lesser Antilles and over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Windward Islands during the next couple of days. Interests in the eastern and central Caribbean should monitor the progress of this system.

Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 40 percent.
Formation chance through seven days: low, 60 percent.

According to Meteorologist, Dale Destin, Tropical Disturbance AL90, which has a 60% chance of formation in 7 days could become a Tropical Storm early next week and become a BIG problem for the central or western Caribbean.

Meanwhile, Tropical Depression 6 and Tropical Disturbances 1 (red) and 5 (yellow) are not an immediate threat to Montserrat at this time, however, DMCA continues to monitor these two systems.

The DMCA will continue to monitor Tropical Disturbance 3 and provides regular updates until the system passes Montserrat.

Yellow Hill Road, Montserrat – Saturday, 19 August 2023: The Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA) is closely monitoring the progress of Tropical Disturbance 3 ( AL90) East-Southeast of the Lesser Antilles now with a medium chance of development in 7 days. The seven-day forecast cone, or “cone of uncertainty” includes Montserrat, hence, Residents are encouraged to have their hurricane kits ready with enough supplies to last for at least three days, pay close attention to information, issued by the DMCA and be prepared.

According to Meteorologist, Dale Destin, notwithstanding the disturbance, we are still looking relatively safe from storm winds! Rain is in the forecast and flash flooding is possible across parts of the southern islands.

Tropical Disturbance 3 is located just east of the Windward Islands. Some gradual development of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form during the early and middle parts of next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, across the Lesser Antilles and over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea.

Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 20 percent.
Formation chance through seven days: low, 40 percent.

Meanwhile, Tropical Disturbances 1 (red) and 2 (yellow) are not an immediate threat to Montserrat at this time, however, DMCA continues to monitor these two systems.

The DMCA will continue to monitor Tropical Disturbance 3 and provides regular updates until the system passes Montserrat.

Yellow Hill, Wednesday, 16 August 2023 – DMCA monitors two tropical disturbances in the Tropical Atlantic both with medium chances of development over the next 7 days. The systems pose no threat to Montserrat at this time.

Disturbance 1 located over the central
tropical Atlantic is centered about 750 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression could form during the next several days while moving toward the west or west-northwest at about 10 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.

Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 30 percent.
Formation chance through seven days: low, 50 percent.

Disturbance 2 moving off the west coast of Africa is forecast to move toward the west-northwest at about 15 mph, with an area of low pressure expected to form in a day or so near or just to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Further development of the low is possible, and a tropical depression could form over the
weekend before environmental conditions become unfavourable early next week.

Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 20 percent.
Formation chance through seven days: low, 40 percent.

Residents are encouraged to have their hurricane kits ready with enough supplies to last at least three days, pay close attention to information, issued by the DMCA and be vigilant.

The DMCA will continue to monitor the systems and provides regular updates as deemed necessary.