HURRICANE SEASON IS HERE!!! PLAN AND TAKE ACTION – PREPARE FOR THE UNEXPECTED

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MONTSERRAT VOLCANO OBSERVATORY (MVO) WEEKLY REPORT FOR THE PERIOD JULY 6TH TO 13TH, 2018

Activity at the Soufrière Hills Volcano remains low.

The seismic network recorded three volcano-tectonic earthquakes this week.

There have been no measurements of the SO2 flux to report since 30 May.

Pyroclastic flows can occur at any time without warning on any side of the volcano, including Gages from where they can travel rapidly into Plymouth. Tracks across the Belham Valley can be destroyed or heavily modified by flash flooding or lahars, and caution should be exercised crossing the valley during and after rainfall.

The Hazard Level is 1. There is no public access to Zone V, including Plymouth. Maritime Zones E and W are daytime transit only between sunrise and sunset (boats may sail through the zone but must not stop). Anyone who ignores these restrictions is liable to be prosecuted.

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TODAY’S LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST FOR MONTSERRAT VALID UP TO 8 AM TUESDAY JULY 17TH, 2018

SYNOPSIS: Lingering moisture and instability from the passage of a wave will support brief showers over the Leewards this morning with a reduction in shower activity expected by this afternoon. As a ridge of high pressure builds, it will maintain a moderate breeze and slightly hazy skies over the islands.

WEATHER TODAY: Brief cloudy spells this morning with a 50 percent or moderate chance of passing showers becoming partly cloudy and slightly hazy this afternoon

WEATHER TONIGHT: Partly cloudy and slightly hazy with a 20 percent or slight chance of a brief overnight shower

WINDS: East at 19 to 33km/h or 10 to 18 knots.

SEAS: Moderate with significant wave heights between 1.5 to 1.8 meters or 5 to 6 feet; Small craft operators are still advised to be cautious against choppy seas.

SUNSET TODAY: 6:46 pm. SUNRISE TOMORROW: 5:45 am. Continue reading

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TODAY’S LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST FOR MONTSERRAT VALID UP TO 8 AM SATURDAY JULY 14TH, 2018

SYNOPSIS: An atmosphere low on instability and moisture will keep the chance of showers low across the Leeward Islands today. However, later tonight, a slight increase in moisture and instability in the atmosphere over the area will increase the chance of light showers across the islands.

WEATHER TODAY: Partly sunny with a 30 percent or low chance of showers.

WEATHER TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to cloudy with a 50 percent or moderate chance of some light showers.

WINDS: Easterly at 22 to 33 km/h or 12 to 18 knots..

SEAS: Moderate, significant wave heights 1.5 to 1.8 metres or 5 to 6 feet. Small craft operators should continue to exercise caution on the Atlantic side of the islands..

SUNSET TODAY: 6:46 pm.SUNRISE TOMORROW : 5:44 am.

Please continue to monitor ZJB Radio, DMCA’s website at www.dmca.gov.ms and Facebook at Montserrat Disaster Management Coordination Agency-DMCA for regular updates.

SOURCE: Antigua Meteorological Service

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TODAY’S LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST FOR MONTSERRAT VALID UP TO 8 AM FRIDAY JULY 13TH, 2018

SYNOPSIS: Notwithstanding the presence of a weak low level trough moving across the area, low moisture levels along with dry dusty air from the Sahara Dessert will inhibit significant shower activity.

WEATHER TODAY: Partly cloudy and hazy with a 30 percent or a low chance of showers.

WEATHER TONIGHT: Partly cloudy and hazy with a 10 percent or a slight chance of showers.

WINDS: Easterly with speeds ranging between 19 to 30 km/h or 10 to 16 knots.

SEAS: Moderate with significant wave heights of 1.2 to 1.8 metres or 4 to 6 feet. Small craft operators should be cautious especially when venturing into open waters on the Atlantic side of the island.

SUNSET TODAY: 6:46 pm SUNRISE TOMORROW: 5:44 am.

Please continue to monitor ZJB Radio, DMCA’s website at www.dmca.gov.ms and Facebook at Montserrat Disaster Management Coordination Agency-DMCA for regular updates. Continue reading

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TODAY’S LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST FOR MONTSERRAT VALID UP TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY JULY 11TH, 2018

WEATHER: Weak instability associated with a weak trough will generate brief localize cloudiness and brief light showers over Trinidad and Tobago and the southern Windwards today. Partly cloudy to cloudy skies are expected over Puerto Rico and the BIV today due to debris clouds from the remnants of Beryl but shower activity will be minimal. The rest of the islands which includes the Leewards and northern Windwards, will be partly cloudy, breezy and hazy with a low chance of showers as a ridge of high pressure dominates

WINDS: ENE to ESE at 19 to 37km/h or 10 to 20 knots with higher amounts over elevated terrain.

SEAS: Moderate to rough with significant wave heights between 1.8 to 2.4m or 6 to 8ft. A small craft warning remains in effect for today; however seas will gradually return to normal levels tomorrow.

Please continue to monitor ZJB Radio, DMCA’s website at www.dmca.gov.ms and Facebook at Montserrat Disaster Management Coordination Agency-DMCA for regular updates. Continue reading

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PRESS RELEASE

NDPRAC ADVISES RESIDENTS TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL; BUSINESS RESUME AS NORMAL ON MONTSERRAT ON MONDAY JULY 9TH, 2018

July 8th, 2018 – Yellow Hill, Montserrat – The National Disaster Preparedness Response Advisory Committee (NDPRAC) is advising residents to continue to monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Beryl which is forecast to pass a safe distance to the South of the Leeward Islands.

The committee met again on Sunday July 8th, 2018 at the Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA) to discuss the impending storm, which is expected to pass Sunday evening into early Monday morning.

According to forecasters, due to the continuing uncertainties associated with Tropical Storm Beryl, any possible motion towards the north could bring the system closer to the islands thus watches and warnings cannot be ruled out.

Possible rainfall total of up to half an inch is also possible with the passage of Beryl.

NDPRAC is also advising residents that business resume as normal on Montserrat on Monday July 9th, 2018 and all public servants are asked to report to work at the usual time.

All public and private schools will be opened on Monday July 9th, 2018 as normal.

Air and Seas Access in and out of Montserrat will resume on Monday July 9th, 2018 in the afternoon if safe to do so.

The message now is for residents to remain vigilant and to continue to monitor the path of Tropical Storm Beryl and not be complacent as tropical storms and hurricanes are fluid by nature and can change at a moment’s notice.

“Plan and Take Action… Always Prepare for the Unexpected”
Ends…

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TROPICAL STORM BERYL ALERT STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES 11:10 AM ECT SUN, JUL 8, 2018

THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

…BERYL MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH…

AT 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 57.9 WEST OR APPROXIMATELY 314 MILES ESE OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA AND APPROXIMATELY 523 MILES ESE OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 23 MPH (37 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF BERYL OR ITS REMNANTS WILL APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY, CROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TONIGHT, AND MOVE NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS, AND BERYL IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).

THE FORECAST TRACK IS FOR BERYL TO PASS A SAFE DISTANCE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE CONTINUING UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL, ANY POSSIBLE MOTION TOWARDS THE NORTH COULD BRING THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS THUS WATCHES OR WARNINGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

POSSIBLE RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO HALF AN INCH IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF BERYL. WINDS FROM THE EAST AVERAGING BETWEEN 28-46KM/H OR 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF BERYL; HENCE A HIGH WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF UP TO 2.4 TO 3 METRES OR 8 TO 10 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT.

ALL RESIDENTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BERYL.

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TROPICAL STORM BERYL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES

LOCATION…13.7N 56.0W
ABOUT 240 MI…380 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 340 MI…550 KM E OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH…31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES

According to the National Hurricane Centre, at 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 56.0 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h) and this motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will approach the Lesser Antilles today, cross the island chain tonight, and move near or south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Beryl is forecast to degenerate into a trough of low pressure as it moves across the eastern Caribbean Sea on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in Dominica and Guadeloupe tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas of the Lesser Antilles by later today or Monday. Strong gusty winds are also possible in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday.

RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches through Monday across the southern Leeward and the northern Windward Islands. Across Puerto Rico, rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches are expected. Across the remainder of the Leeward and Windward Islands and the Virgin Islands, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected, with locally higher amounts possible.

NEXT ADVISORY 8:00 AM

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA) will continue to monitor the system and provide updates accordingly. Please visit the DMCA’s website at www.dmca.gov.ms and subscribe for updates or like us on facebook at facebook.com/MontserratDisasterManagement/

Residents and visitors are encouraged to expedite preparations as we are moving further into 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The DMCA will continue to provide updates as the system progresses. Continue reading

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HURRICANE BERYL NOW MOVING WEST NORTH WEST

LOCATION…11.1N 49.8W
ABOUT 830 MI…1685 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…995 MB…29.39 INCHES

According to the National Hurricane Centre at 5:00AM, the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 48.9 West. Beryl is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest and a faster forward speed are expected on Saturday,
with this motion continuing through early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will approach the Lesser Antilles over the weekend and cross the island chain late Sunday or Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Due to the small size of the hurricane, short-term changes in intensity, up or down, could occur over the next day or two, but Beryl is forecast to be near hurricane strength as it nears the Lesser Antilles. Weakening is expected once Beryl reaches the eastern Caribbean Sea on Monday, but the system may not degenerate into an open trough until it reaches the vicinity of Hispaniola and the central Caribbean Sea on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Beryl is a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).

The next advisory will be issued by 11AM

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA) will will continue to monitor the system and provide updates accordingly. Please visit the DMCA’s website at www.dmca.gov.ms and subscribe for updates or like us on facebook at facebook.com/MontserratDisasterManagement/

Residents and visitors are encouraged to expedite preparations as we are moving further into 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The DMCA will continue to provide updates as the system progresses.

Please continue to monitor ZJB Radio, DMCA’s website at www.dmca.gov.ms and Facebook at Montserrat Disaster Management Coordination Agency-DMCA for regular updates. Continue reading

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HURRICANE BERYL INTENSIFIES

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Location: 10.7N, 46.5W

Geographic Reference: 1045 miles ESE of The Lesser Antilles

Movement: West at 15 mph

Max Winds: 80 mph with higher gusts

Current Radius of Hurricane Force Winds: 10 miles

Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 35 miles

HERE’S THE REST OF THE FORECAST

6th July , 11:00 am Beryl has intensified further. Winds are now estimated at 80 mph. Some additional intensification is possible today. Wind shear is likely to increase tomorrow, which should lead to a gradual weakening trend. Most of the guidance now brings Beryl through the islands as a tropical storm instead of a tropical wave. Winds are forecast to be 50 mph when Beryl moves through the northern Windward Islands. Beryl is also a very small storm. When it moves into the Caribbean, winds of tropical storm force winds will only extend about 35 miles north of the center.

Beryl is expected to move on a track slightly north of due west for the next few days. The forecast takes Beryl through the northern Windward Islands late Sunday.

The next advisory will be issued by 5 PM

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA) will will continue to monitor the system and provide updates accordingly. Please visit the DMCA’s website at www.dmca.gov.ms and subscribe for updates or like us on facebook at facebook.com/MontserratDisasterManagement/

Residents and visitors are encouraged to expedite preparations as we are moving further into 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The DMCA will continue to provide updates as the system progresses. Continue reading

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