NOAA Updated August Outlook, Still Predicts An Above-Normal Atlantic Heading into the Peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season

On Thursday, 4 August 2002, as we head into the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA has updated its outlook.

NOAA predicted we will see 14 -20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 6 -10 will become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), and 3 -5 will strengthen into major hurricanes – Category 3 or stronger with winds of at least 111 mph. This includes the three named storms we’ve already had.

Last May, it predicted 14-21 named storms, including 6-10 hurricanes and 3-6 major hurricanes.

The May outlook had a 65 percent chance of an above-normal season and a 25 percent chance of a near-normal season. The August outlook changed that to a 60 percent chance of an above-normal season while the near-normal chance increased to 30 percent.

According to NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad,”We’re just getting into the peak months of August through October for hurricane development, and we anticipate that more storms are on the way”.

Historically, 90% of all Atlantic tropical cyclone activity occurs August through October.

NOAA says Atmospheric and oceanic conditions still favor an above-normal 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.

So far, the season has seen three named storms and no hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin. An average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes. This outlook is for overall seasonal activity, and is not a landfall forecast.

As the season enters the historical peak period of August through October, the Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA urges residents if they have done so already, to begin to review their hurricane plans, assess their vulnerabilities to hurricane hazards, evaluate their emergency supplies and review their insurance coverage.

Continue to monitor DMCA for daily weather updates, public advisories and warnings and information on the wide range of natural and man-made hazards that have the potential to impact Montserrat.

Tropics Update: The Atlantic Basin remains quiet today Tuesday, and is likely to remain so for the next five days with no tropical development expected!

Yellow Hill – Tuesday, 2 August 2022 – The Atlantic hurricane season has been in slumber for exactly a month, but forecasters don’t expect it to remain quiet for too much longer because the peak of hurricane season is on the way.

Tropical Storm Colin, which briefly impacted the coastal Carolinas with heavy rain and gusty winds on July 2 and 3, was the last system to roam the Atlantic Basin.

However, it’s not unusual for a lull in activity in the tropics in June or July before the season begins to ramp up in August.

Keep in mind, that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s seasonal forecast calls for 14-21 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes and 3-6 major hurricanes. The forecast will be updated midway through August, as the peak of the season approaches.

As the peak of the Hurricane Season is just around the corner, residents are urged to use this lull in activity to review their hurricane plans, assess their vulnerabilities to hurricane hazards, evaluate their emergency supplies and review their insurance coverage.

Remember, it only takes one storm to hit Montserrat to make it a bad season. Be Prepared, Stay Prepared, It Only Takes One!

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA urges all residents and visitors to continue to monitor DMCA on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram for daily updates.

Air Quality to fall to Moderate Levels Saturday afternoon across Montserrat, associated with a fresh surge in Saharan Dust in the Atmosphere!

According to an Air Quality Alert issued by the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services today Saturday, the threat of health problems is forecast to be elevated, for mainly unusually sensitive people, such as asthmatics, and could potentially cause them limited health impacts.

Therefore, active children and adults, and, people with respiratory diseases such as asthma, should limit prolonged outdoor exertion.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA) is advising residents who are unusually sensitive to dust particles to remain extra vigilant due to moderate concentrations of Saharan dust in the atmosphere! Residents with respiratory issues such as asthma should keep windows and doors closed as much as possible.

The DMCA is further advising residents to limit dust entering their system as best as possible by using masks and protective eyewear. Any masks that filter small particles should be worn such as a surgical mask, N95 and KN95 when going outside.

Air Quality Index Based on Particulate Matters 2.5 (PM2.5) and 10 (PM10) Concentration

Air quality category: Moderate

Location: Montserrat

Timing: Saturday afternoon until Tuesday

Synopsis: The air quality is expected to fall to moderate levels as a result of particulate matters 2.5 and 10, associated with a fresh surge in the Saharan Dust.

Air quality index: 51 to 90

Alert Level: II

Sensitive groups: People with respiratory or heart disease, the elderly and children are the groups most at risk.

Health implications: Air quality is acceptable; however, for some pollutants, there may be moderate health concerns for a very small number of people who are unusually sensitive to air pollution.

Continue to monitor DMCA Facebook, Instagram and Twitter social media sites and our website http://dmca.gov.ms for daily weather updates, public advisories and warnings.

Tropics Update: The Atlantic Basin is quiet today Friday, and is likely to remain so for the next five days with no tropical development expected!

Yellow Hill – Friday, 22 July 2022 -The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season has been quiet for the past two and half weeks with no development to speak of. This quiet stretch is not uncommon this time of year with July still being early in the season.

Dry Saharan dust has helped keep tropical activity at bay with large plume after large plume coming off the coast of Africa and covering most of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico water basins.

On average, the Atlantic hurricane season picks up in August with tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa. Saharan dust usually begins to taper off as well, allowing more favourable conditions in the tropics for those tropical waves to develop.

Keep in mind, that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s seasonal forecast calls for 14-21 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes and 3-6 major hurricanes. The forecast will be updated midway through August, as the peak of the season approaches.

.As the peak of the Hurricane Season is just around the corner, residents are urged to use this lull in activity to review their hurricane plans, assess their vulnerabilities to hurricane hazards, evaluate their emergency supplies and review their insurance coverage.

Remember, it only takes one storm to hit Montserrat to make it a bad season. Be Prepared, Stay Prepared, It Only Takes One!

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA urges all residents and visitors to continue to monitor DMCA on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram for daily updates.

Monday’s Marine Weather Forecast for Montserrat!

The Small Craft Advisory for Opens Waters on the Atlantic side of Montserrat out to 20 nautical miles has been cancelled as winds and seas have subsided below the advisory criteria.

However, fishers and sailors are urged to be careful as there are still strong currents and moderately strong gusty winds. Small Craft boaters and fishers are should exercise caution on the Eastern sides of the island.

Seas are Moderate with waves between 1.4 to 1.6 metres High in Waters around the island.

The sea wind is forecast to be Moderate to Strong; ranging from 16 to 23 knots.

Always think about boat safety and plan your trip before you go. Knowledge and planning reduce the risks. Always tell someone where you will be going, when you expect to return, and what your boat looks like. Keep in mind that cell phone coverage might not be where you’re heading!

Continue to monitor DMCA Facebook, Instagram and Twitter social media sites and our website http://dmca.gov.ms for daily weather updates, public advisories and warnings and information on the wide range of natural and man-made hazards that have the potential to impact Montserrat.

Tropics Update: The Atlantic Basin remains uncannily quiet at this time and hopefully will stay that way!

Yellow Hill – Saturday, 16 July 2022 -There are no organized systems in the Atlantic and Caribbean Basin at this time, and no development is expected for at least the next five days, according to the National Hurricane Center, NHC.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s seasonal forecast calls for 14-21 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes and 3-6 major hurricanes. The forecast will be updated midway through August, as the peak of the season approaches.

As the peak of the Hurricane Season is just around the corner, residents are urged to use this lull in activity to review their hurricane plans, assess their vulnerabilities to hurricane hazards, evaluate their emergency supplies and review their insurance coverage.

It’s never too late to be proactive, especially within this season’s lull. Remember, it’s not over ‘til it’s over.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA urges all residents and visitors to continue to monitor DMCA on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram for daily updates.

Be Prepared, Stay Prepared, It Only Takes One.

Montserrat Air Quality Alert Extended to Friday, 15 July 2022, due to the continued presence of Saharan Dust particles in the Atmosphere!

According to an Air Quality Bulletin issued by the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services Tuesday at midnight, the air quality is down to moderate levels as a result of particulate matters 2.5 and 10, associated with a fresh surge in the Saharan Dust.
Hence, the threat of health problems is forecast to be elevated, for mainly unusually sensitive people, such as asthmatics, and could potentially cause them limited health impacts.

Therefore, active children and adults, and, people with respiratory diseases such as asthma, should limit prolonged outdoor exertion.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA) is advising residents who are unusually sensitive to dust particles to remain extra vigilant due to moderate concentrations of Saharan dust in the atmosphere! Residents with respiratory issues such as asthma should keep windows and doors closed as much as possible.

The DMCA is further advising residents to limit dust entering their system as best as possible by using masks and protective eyewear. Any masks that filter small particles should be worn such as a surgical mask, N95 and KN95 when going outside.

Air quality index: 51 to 80

Alert Level: II

Sensitive groups: People with respiratory or heart disease, the elderly and children are the groups most at risk.

Health implications: Air quality is acceptable; however, for some pollutants, there may be moderate health concerns for a very small number of people who are unusually sensitive to air pollution.

Continue to monitor DMCA Facebook, Instagram and Twitter social media sites and our website http://dmca.gov.ms for daily weather updates, public advisories and warnings and information on the wide range of natural and man-made hazards that have the potential to impact Montserrat.

8 AM UPDATE: Further development of Tropical Disturbance 2, located about 100 miles east of the Windward is unlikely, due to factors such as the presence of storm-shredding wind shear; the chance of formation is low – 10% in five days.

Yellow Hill – Friday, 1 July 2022 – The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA will continue to monitor Tropical Disturbance 2 which forecasters say is fizzling until the system passes Montserrat.

The National Hurricane Center, NHC states that the disturbance continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The associated shower activity and gusty winds are expected to spread across the Windward Islands later today.

It states that any development of this system should be slow to occur during the next day or so before the wave moves into unfavourable conditions over the eastern Caribbean Sea.

There is a 10 percent chance of formation into a tropical cyclone in 48 hours and a 10 percent chance of formation in 5 days.

At this time this system is currently no threat to Montserrat and, there are no watches or warnings issued for Montserrat.

The DMCA is encouraging residents to review their hurricane plans, complete their hurricane preparations now and continue to monitor the Atlantic in the event of any changes with this system.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA will continue to monitor the Atlantic for any development with Tropical Disturbance 2 and provide regular updates as information is released from the NHC.

8 AM UPDATE: Tropical Disturbance 2, located in the Western Tropical Atlantic is not expected to form before reaching Montserrat; the chance of formation is low – 10% in five days.

Yellow Hill – Thursday, 30 June 2022 – The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA will continue to monitor Tropical Disturbance 2 until the system passes Montserrat.

The National Hurricane Center, NHC states that the disturbance located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

It states that any development of this system should be slow to occur while the wave moves west-northwestward during the next day or two. The wave is forecast to move over the Windward Islands on Friday and then over the eastern Caribbean Sea by the weekend, where further development is unlikely due to unfavourable environmental conditions.

There is a 10 percent chance of formation into a tropical cyclone in 48 hours and a 10 percent chance of formation in 5 days.

At this time this system is currently no threat to Montserrat and, there are no watches or warnings issued for Montserrat.

The DMCA is encouraging residents to review their hurricane plans, complete their hurricane preparations now and continue to monitor the Atlantic in the event of any changes with this system.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA will continue to monitor the Atlantic for any development with Tropical Disturbance 2 and provide regular updates as information is released from the NHC.

High Chance of Showers Forecast for Montserrat Today, associated with a Steep Pressure Gradient producing Moderate to Fresh wind flow!

And, The Small Craft Warning for Open Waters on the Atlantic Side of Montserrat has been downgraded to a Small Craft Advisory due to an improvement in the sea conditions.

However, Inexperienced Mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions as large open water swells can be hazardous to some vessels and the operation of smaller vessels can be difficult at times due to large swells.

Continue to monitor DMCA Facebook, Instagram and Twitter social media sites and our website http://dmca.gov.ms for daily weather updates, public advisories and warnings and information on the wide range of natural and man-made hazards that have the potential to impact Montserrat.

Disclaimer: The Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA) is the national body responsible for coordinating the management of emergencies and disasters in Montserrat, and is not an official Meteorological Agency. The Information disseminated by the Department is gathered from a number of professional sources utilized by the DMCA and the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services, the agency responsible for aviation weather products and services for Montserrat.