DMCA MONITORS TWO OTHER AREAS FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT

Invest 92L, an area of low pressure located about 750 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. The shower and thunderstorm activity associated with it continues to show signs of organization. While it would take only a slight increase in organization for a tropical depression to form later today or tonight, upper-level winds are becoming less favorable for development. The low is expected to move west-northwestward at about 20 mph during the next few days, and interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance. It has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next five days.

Also, shower activity has increased during the last 24 hours in association with a tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean, several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable for some development early next week while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward at about 20 mph. It has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next five days.

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TODAY’S LOCAL WEATHER FOR MONTSERRAT VALID UP TO 8 AM TOMORROW SATURDAY AUGUST 19TH, 2017

SYNOPSIS: A steep pressure gradient will generate some fresh winds across the islands. Also, some shallow moisture moving into the area will increase the chance of showers.

WEATHER:

TODAY: Cloudy with medium chance (40 percent chance) of showers.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with a medium chance (60 percent chance) of showers.

SPECIAL WARNINGS: A small craft warning remains in effect for hazardous seas and sea bathers should exercise extreme caution.

WINDS: ENE at 26-37 km/h or 14-20kts over land and increasing at times to near 44 km/h or 24kts with higher gusts over coastal waters.

SEAS: Rough waves/swells 1.8-2.4m or 6-8ft. A small craft warning remains in effect for hazardous seas and sea bathers should exercise extreme caution. Continue reading

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ANTIGUA MET SERVICES ISSUES POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE 91L ALERT STATEMENT FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

…POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE 91L HAS ENTERED THE MONITORED AREA AND NOW HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE…

AT 8AM ECT OR 1200Z THE CENTRE OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE 91L WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 52.0 WEST OR ABOUT 475 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE 91L IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST WEST AT 15 MILES PER HOUR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ON ITS PRESENT TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND BARBADOS ON FRIDAY. THIS PATH IS WELL SOUTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WILL LIKELY INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TODAY FOR SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT.

SHOULD THE SYSTEM SHIFT FURTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTED, A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

ALL RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE MOVEMENT OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE 91L CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO ACT. Continue reading

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TODAY’S LOCAL WEATHER FOR MONTSERRAT VALID UP TO 8 AM TOMORROW FRIDAY AUGUST 18TH, 2017

SYNOPSIS: A moderate to fresh trade wind flow will transport shallow pockets of moisture and cloud patches across the area; however a relatively stable atmosphere will inhibit any significant shower activity.

WEATHER TODAY: Partly cloudy with a chance of brief passing showers.

WEATHER TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers.

SPECIAL WARNINGS: A warning remains in effect for small craft operators. Sea bathers should exercise caution.

WINDS: East-northeast to East at 22 to 37 km/h or 12 to 20 knots.

SEAS: Moderate to locally rough with wave heights of 1.8 to 2.4 meters or 6 to 8 feet. A warning remains in effect for small craft operators. Sea bathers should exercise caution. Continue reading

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ANTIGUA MET SERVICES ISSUES FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LOW LYING AND AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF MONTSERRAT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF MONTSERRAT, ST. KITTS, NEVIS, ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS VALID UNTIL MIDNIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT IMMINENT IN THE WATCH AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

RESIDENTS IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR FLOODING TO SAFE GUARD LIFE AND PROPERTY. THEY SHOULD BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF FLOODING RAINS DEVELOP OR A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL MOVING OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS CAUSING PERIODIC HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALREADY, UP TO 3/4 INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN SOME PLACES IN THE LAST 4 HOURS AND AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 8 HOURS. HENCE, MODERATE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LOCAL RADIO OR TELEVISION FOR WATCH UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

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DMCA MONITORS THREE DISTURBANCES AT ONCE IN THE ATLANTIC – INVESTS 91L and 92L, MAY BECOME THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM

Over the Atlantic basin, three areas are being watched closely, each having a medium chance (40%) of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next five days.

Invest 91L, a low pressure system located about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, continues to produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. This system is moving westward at 15 to 20 mph, and it is expected to cross into the Caribbean Sea on Friday. Upper-level winds are forecast to become a little more conducive for development during the next several days, and interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

Invest 92L, the second one, is an area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is also producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The gradual development of this system is possible during the next few days before upper-level winds become less conducive over the weekend. This system is expected to move west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent. Continue reading

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TODAY’S LOCAL WEATHER FOR MONTSERRAT VALID UP TO 8 AM TOMORROW THURSDAY AUGUST 17TH, 2017

SYNOPSIS: A tropical wave will move across the islands this morning into this afternoon, resulting in unstable weather. Possible rainfall total for the forecast period is 10 to 25 mm (0.40 to 1.00 in); hence, minor flooding is possible.

WEATHER TODAY: Mostly cloudy with periods of showers and thunderstorms, some are likely to be heavy at times.

WEATHER TONIGHT: Becoming partly cloudy with a 40 percent or a moderate chance of showers, mainly before midnight.

WINDS: Easterly at 19 to 31 km/h or 10 to 17 knots with strong gusts of up to 56 km/h or 30 knots possible, mainly during showers.

SEAS: Moderate to locally rough with heights up to 1.5 to 2.1 metres or 5 to 7 feet and occasionally reaching 2.8 metres or 9 feet. A small craft advisory remains in effect.  Continue reading

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A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES, INCLUDING INVEST 91L, MAY BECOME THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM THIS WEEK OR WEEKEND

The first area, Invest 91L, an elongated area of low pressure, located more than a thousand miles east of the Lesser Antilles, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic Ocean, crossing into the Caribbean Sea on Friday. Environmental conditions appear somewhat
supportive of tropical cyclone formation over the next few days but should become less favourable once the system moves into the Caribbean Sea. It has a medium chance (40%) of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next five days.

The second area of low pressure, immediately to the east of Invest 91L, associated with a tropical wave, is also producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions could be conducive for some slow development of this system over the next few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. It has a low chance (20%) of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next five days.  Continue reading

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SOME INTERESTING FACTS FOR THE 2017 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON SO FAR

According to Dale Destin, Meteorologist/Climatologist for the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service Climate Section, the formation of Tropical Storm Bret, a few weeks ago, resulted in several firsts or firsts in a long time for the Atlantic hurricane season, for the Eastern Caribbean and for Trinidad.

Here are some we have noted:

1st named storm to pass south of La Brea, Trinidad.

1st named storm to form between Africa and the Caribbean before summer (June 21).

1st time there were two named storms (Bret and Cindy) in June alive at the same time – June 20, 2017.

1st designated potential tropical cyclone ever by the U.S. National Hurricane Center.

1st named storm to impact the Eastern Caribbean before summer, since an unnamed hurricane in March 1908 impacted Antigua and the northeast Caribbean – the only other such system to impact the area before June 21; it formed in the Caribbean Sea.

1st named storm to impact Trinidad in June since an unnamed hurricane in 1933. There is no other June storm on record for Trinidad.

1st named storm to form between African and the Caribbean in June since Tropical Storm Anna of 1979. There has ONLY been one other in June – an unnamed hurricane of 1933. So, there have ONLY been three named storms to impact the Eastern Caribbean in June on record.

1st named storm to make landfall (pass over land) in Trinidad since Tropical Storm Bret of 1993. This has ONLY happened three other times – Fran of 1990, Alma of 1974 and an unnamed storm of 1933.

1st named storm to pass within 65 nuatical miles (nm) or 120 km of Port of Spain, Trinidad, since Joyce of 2000. There have ONLY been 11 named storms in history, dating back to 1851, to have passed within 65 nm of Port of Spain, Trinidad; ONLY four were hurricanes, the last one being Hurricane Flora of 1963.

1st time two named storms (Bret and Cindy) formed in June since 1909. It has happened ONLY two other times – 1906 and 1886. Both 1906 and 1886 turned out to be very active years; 1909 had near normal activity.

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TODAY’S LOCAL WEATHER FOR MONTSERRAT VALID UP TO 8 AM TOMORROW WEDNESDAY AUGUST 16TH, 2017

SYNOPSIS: After the passage of a tropical wave, a dry and more stable airmass returned to the area.

WEATHER: Skies today and tonight will be partly cloudy and hazy with low chances for isolated brief passing showers.

WINDS: ENE-E at 10-17kt, 19-31 km/h.

SEAS: Moderate – locally rough with waves 1.8-2.1m/6-7ft. Small craft advisory is in effect. Continue reading

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