HURRICANE SEASON IS HERE!!! PLAN AND TAKE ACTION – PREPARE FOR THE UNEXPECTED

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DMCA URGES RESIDENTS TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TROPICAL STORM KIRK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IN THE EVENT IT POSES A THREAT TO MONTSERRAT

Current location…9.3N 30.2W
ABOUT 545 MI…880 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH…33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES

At 1100 AM, the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was
located near latitude 9.3 North, longitude 30.2 West. Kirk is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). An even faster westward motion across the tropical Atlantic is expected through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two. Weakening is likely during the middle to latter part of the week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ALERT STATEMENT ISSUED BY ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK AND SPEED, THE SYSTEM COULD HAVE SOME EFFECT ON THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN BY EARLY MONDAY, ALL RESIDENTS ARE THEREFORE 
ASKED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN CLOSELY.

…TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN MOVES VERY SLOWLY TOWARDS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN A DAY OR TWO…

AT 5 AM ECT OR 0900Z THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 53.5 WEST OR ABOUT
621 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND 809 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THIS DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT NEAR 5 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74) INCHES. OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY LATE SUNDAY.

GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK AND SPEED, THE SYSTEM COULD HAVE SOME EFFECT ON THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN BY EARLY MONDAY, ALL RESIDENTS ARE THEREFORE
ASKED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN CLOSELY. Continue reading

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DMCA IS CLOSELY MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE WHICH NOW HAS AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT

Residents should continue to monitor this system and be prepared to take action in the event it poses a threat to Montserrat.

Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become better organized near the center of a low pressure system located about 500 miles south of the southern Cabo Verde Islands, and a tropical depression appears to be forming. If these trends continue, advisories will be initiated on this system later today while the low moves westward at about 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NOT MOVING VERY MUCH… …EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR TWO…

LOCATION…13.0N 53.5W
ABOUT 505 MI…810 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES

At 500 AM , the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 53.5 West. The depression is moving slowly toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow westward or west-northwestward motion is expected during the
next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, and the depression is expected to dissipate east of the Lesser Antilles by Sunday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). Continue reading

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FOUR DISTURBANCES PRESENT IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC; HOWEVER, THE ONE OF GREATEST INTEREST TO THE CARIBBEAN HAS JUST EMERGED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA

According to the Antigua Meteorological Service, there are four disturbances present, however, the one of greatest interest overall and specifically to the Caribbean has just emerged off the coast of Africa ( shown in orange in the image below) and now has a 60% chance of becoming a storm. Please monitor!

Disturbance 1 (shown in orange in the image below) – Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located about 600 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands are showing some signs of organization. The environment is forecast to be conducive for slow development, and a tropical depression could form early
next week while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the low latitudes of the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

Disturbance 2: A weak low pressure area located about 600 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The combination of dry mid-level air and strong
upper-level winds is expected to hinder any further development of this low while it moves west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

Disturbance 3. A broad area of low pressure located just southeast of Bermuda is producing minimal shower activity while it moves southward at 10 to 15 mph. Although a combination of dry air and strong upper-level
winds is expected to inhibit any significant development over the next few days, the environment could become conducive for slow development when the system moves over the southwest Atlantic Ocean during the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

Disturbance 4: A non-tropical low pressure system is forecast to develop tonight over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean midway between Bermuda and the Azores. Conditions are expected to be conducive for the low to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics, and a
subtropical or tropical cyclone is expected to form late this
weekend or early next week while the low meanders over the central Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

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MONTSERRAT NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST VALID UP TO 8AM SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 22ND, 2018

SYNOPSIS: Weak instability over the Leewards and BVI will give way to a more stable environment over these islands today resulting in mimimal shower activity; but a slight increase in moisture is expected again tonight

WEATHER TODAY: Partly cloudy and slightly hazy with a 20 percent or slight chance of a brief shower

WEATHER TONIGHT: Partly cloudy and slightly hazy with a 40 percent or moderate chance of a brief overnight shower

WINDS: East -northeast at 8 to 14 knots or 15 to 26km/h.

SEAS: Moderate with significant wave heights of 1.5m or 5ft.

SUNSET TODAY: 6:06 pm. SUNRISE TOMORROW: 5:58 am.

Please continue to monitor ZJB Radio, DMCA’s website at www.dmca.gov.ms and Facebook at Montserrat Disaster Management Coordination Agency-DMCA for regular updates. Continue reading

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MONTSERRAT NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST VALID UP TO 8AM THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 21ST, 2018

 

Synopsis: A rather dry and very hazy atmosphere due to the presence of Saharan dust haze will persist across the area during the next 24 hours. A moderate to fresh trade wind flow could transport shallow pockets of low level moisture across the islands at times.

Weather today: Partly sunny and very hazy.

Weather tonight: Fair to partly cloudy and hazy with a 20 percent or slight chance of a late night shower.

Winds: East-northeast at 22 to 33 km/h or 12 to 18 knots with higher gusts over open waters..

Seas: Moderate with significant wave heights of 1.2 to 1.8 metres or 4 to 6 feet. Small craft operators should continue to exercise caution..

Sunset today: 6:07 pm. Sunrise tomorrow: 5:58 am. Continue reading

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TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR MONTSERRAT; HOWEVER, HEAVY RAIN THREAT REMAINS

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA) is still advising residents and visitors to take the necessary precautions depending on their vulnerability and to stay away from coastal areas across Montserrat because of the potential effects of storm surges.

Residents in Isles Bay Hill and other persons crossing the Belham Valley River are asked to take extra precautions during heavy rainfall, due, to the possibility of lahars occurring with little or no warning in the area.

Motorists are asked to drive with due care and attention and be mindful of areas prone to landslides and rockfalls.

Please continue to monitor ZJB Radio, DMCA’s website at www.dmca.gov.ms and Facebook at Montserrat Disaster Management Coordination Agency-DMCA for regular updates.

Please continue to monitor ZJB Radio, DMCA’s website at www.dmca.gov.ms and Facebook at Montserrat Disaster Management Coordination Agency-DMCA for regular updates. Continue reading

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MONTSERRAT REMAINS UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH

2:00 PM POSITION

…ISAAC BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA…

Current location: 14.9N 62.5W
ABOUT 80 MI…130 KM WSW OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 240 MI…385 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH…30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES

At 200 PM, the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was
located by satellite images near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 62.5 West. Isaac is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A westward track with a slower forward motion is forecast to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, Isaac should move farther away from Lesser Antilles today, and then move across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days as Isaac moves through the Caribbean Sea.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
\Next complete advisory at 500 PM . Continue reading

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SCHOOLS AND GOVERNMENT OFFICES CLOSE AT 12 NOON AND THE PRIVATE SECTOR ENCOURAGED TO DO LIKEWISE

Cabinet has taken a decision to close all schools and government offices at 12 noon today for the passage of Tropical Storm Isaac. The private sector is also encouraged to close their businesses at 12 noon today as well, especially those with parents who have school-aged children.

According to Major Alvin Ryan, Interim Director at the Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA), although, tropical storm conditions on Montserrat are not expected to get significantly worst, they are not anticipated to improve before 3 pm today and significant rainfall activity is forecast for this afternoon. Therefore, Mr Ryan says to err on the side of caution, all schools, government offices be closed at mid-day and the private sector is encouraged to do likewise.

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