TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN… RESIDENTS ON MONTSERRAT SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM…
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORMED; IT COULD BECOME HURRICANE IMELDA IN OUR VICINITY ON FRIDAY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY, WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED IN 24 HOURS
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SLOWLY, LIKELY BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM BY FRIDAY AND BE NEAR THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL97 CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE INCREASED TO 90% IN 5 DAYS AND 60% IN 48 HOURS; RESIDENTS ASKED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY, AS IT CONTINUES ON A WESTERLY PATH
September 16th, 2019 – Disturbance AL97 (red x) is located along 42.0 degrees West Longitude 10.5 degrees North. It is moving towards the west at around 14 mph. The disturbance is forecast to turn to the northwest this week. The disturbance is becoming better organized as an area of low pressure has formed. Conditions are forecast to be favourable for development over the next several days. The disturbance could become a tropical storm by Wednesday or Thursday. The chance of tropical development is estimated at 90 percent.
Forecasters have the disturbance passing north or near the islands which include Montserrat around Saturday, however, this is based on current information. The system is still moving west and has not begun to turn West North West. Montserrat is located 62.2 degrees West Longitude 16.8 degrees North Latitude.
Residents and visitors on Montserrat are urged to monitor this system as it continues to progress further west. Residents should continue to prepare and be ready in any event.
Please continue to monitor DMCA’s Facebook Page -Montserrat Disaster Management Coordination Agency -DMCA, twitter – https://twitter.com/DMCA_MONTSERRAT and our website – www.dmca.gov.ms and ZJB Radio Montserrat for regular updates.
SOURCE: NOAA NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER Forecaster Stewart
AIR QUALITY IS EXPECTED TO FALL TO MODERATE LEVELS AS A RESULT OF A FRESH SURGE OF SAHARAN DUST; PEOPLE WITH RESPIRATORY OR HEART DISEASE, THE ELDERLY AND CHILDREN ARE ASKED TO TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
MONDAY SEPTEMBER 16TH, 2019 6AM 6PM
Seas: 1.5M. or 4’9″ 1.6M. or 5’2″ High.
Winds: Easterly @ 15 with Gusts up to 29 MPH. E 16 with Gusts up to 22 MPH. in Squalls.
Skies: Cloudy with Rain Squalls.
Sign: Capt. John @ 2:40PM. Sunday 15 Sept. 2019
The seismic network recorded three volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes this week.
SO2 flux measurements via traverse were not possible during the reporting period.
Pyroclastic flows can occur at any time without warning on any side of the volcano, including Gages from where they can travel rapidly into Plymouth. Tracks across the Belham Valley can be destroyed or heavily modified by flash flooding or lahars, and caution should be exercised crossing the valley during and after rainfall.
The Hazard Level is 1. There is no public access to Zone V, including Plymouth. Maritime Zones E and W are daytime transit only between sunrise and sunset (boats may sail through the zone but must not stop). Anyone who ignores these restrictions is liable to be prosecuted.
SOURCE: MVO Director Graham A. Ryan