On Thursday, 4 August 2002, as we head into the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA has updated its outlook.
NOAA predicted we will see 14 -20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 6 -10 will become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), and 3 -5 will strengthen into major hurricanes – Category 3 or stronger with winds of at least 111 mph. This includes the three named storms we’ve already had.
Last May, it predicted 14-21 named storms, including 6-10 hurricanes and 3-6 major hurricanes.
The May outlook had a 65 percent chance of an above-normal season and a 25 percent chance of a near-normal season. The August outlook changed that to a 60 percent chance of an above-normal season while the near-normal chance increased to 30 percent.
According to NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad,”We’re just getting into the peak months of August through October for hurricane development, and we anticipate that more storms are on the way”.
Historically, 90% of all Atlantic tropical cyclone activity occurs August through October.
NOAA says Atmospheric and oceanic conditions still favor an above-normal 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.
So far, the season has seen three named storms and no hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin. An average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes. This outlook is for overall seasonal activity, and is not a landfall forecast.
As the season enters the historical peak period of August through October, the Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA urges residents if they have done so already, to begin to review their hurricane plans, assess their vulnerabilities to hurricane hazards, evaluate their emergency supplies and review their insurance coverage.
Continue to monitor DMCA for daily weather updates, public advisories and warnings and information on the wide range of natural and man-made hazards that have the potential to impact Montserrat.