HURRICANE SEASON IS HERE!!! PLAN AND TAKE ACTION – PREPARE FOR THE UNEXPECTED

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MONTSERRAT NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST VALID UP TO 8 AM FRIDAY OCTOBER 12TH, 2018

SYNOPSIS: A low to mid-level trough along with some available moisture will continue to enhance the chance of shower activity across the region.

WEATHER TODAY: Partly cloudy with a 40 percent or moderate chance of showers during the morning and, cloudy with a 70 percent or high chance of showers during the afternoon. There is also a moderate chance of thunderstorms during the afternoon period.

WEATHER TONIGHT: Cloudy with a 70 percent or high chance of showers.

WINDS: East-southeast at 9 to 19 km/h or 5 to 10 knots.

SEAS: Long and northerly swells peaking to near 2.1 metres or 7 feet will continue to break on the shores of the island. A high surf advisory is in effect for beachgoers mainly for the north and east beaches.

SUNSET TODAY: 5:51 pm. SUNRISE TOMORROW: 6:01 am.

Please continue to monitor DMCA ’s facebook page -Montserrat Disaster Management Coordination Agency -DMCA and website – www.dmca.gov.ms and ZJB Radio Montserrat for regular updates.

SOURCE: Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services
Lorne Salmon-Forecaster

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MONTSERRAT VOLCANO OBSERVATORY (MV0) WEEKLY REPORT SEPTEMBER 28TH TO OCTOBER 5TH, 2018

 

Activity at the Soufrière Hills Volcano remains low.

The seismic network recorded two volcano-tectonic earthquakes this week.

Data from the new permanent gas-monitoring stations, which are currently being tested, indicate that the flux remains in the range 100 to 400 tonnes per day. This week, measurements of the SO2 flux were taken from the DOAS station at Windy Hill on 3 October. This is an additional spectrometer which has recently been installed to supplement the existing DOAS network. This will allow measurements of SO2 to be captured when the wind blows the gas plume more towards the north, away from its usual position to the west of the volcano. Measurements from six scans at this station throughout the day on 3 October gave an average SO2 flux of 261 tonnes per day.

Pyroclastic flows can occur at any time without warning on any side of the volcano, including Gages from where they can travel rapidly into Plymouth. Tracks across the Belham Valley can be destroyed or heavily modified by flash flooding or lahars, and caution should be exercised crossing the valley during and after rainfall.

The Hazard Level is 1. There is no public access to Zone V, including Plymouth. Maritime Zones E and W are daytime transit only between sunrise and sunset (boats may sail through the zone but must not stop). Anyone who ignores these restrictions is liable to be prosecuted.

Please continue to monitor ZJB Radio, DMCA’s website at www.dmca.gov.ms and Facebook at Montserrat Disaster Management Coordination Agency-DMCA for regular updates. Continue reading

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HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT

HERE’S THE REST OF MONTSERRAT’S NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST VALID UP TO 8 AM TUESDAY OCTOBER 9TH, 2018

SYNOPSIS: A moderate trade wind flow generated by a ridge of high pressure could transport shallow pockets of low-level moisture over and around the islands during the next 24 hours, thus maintaining a moderate chance of showers during that time.

WEATHER TODAY: Partly sunny skies with periods of increased cloudiness and a 50 percent or moderate chance for showers mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.

WEATHER TONIGHT: Partly cloudy skies with a 50 percent or moderate chance of late night showers.

WINDS: East at 19 to 30 km/h or 10 to 16 knots with higher gusts over open waters.

SEAS: Long, low swells with significant wave heights of 1.2 to 1.8 metres or 4 to 6 feet. High surf advisory remains in effect.

SUNSET TODAY: 5:53 pm. Sunrise tomorrow: 6:01 am.

Please continue to monitor DMCA ’s facebook page -Montserrat Disaster Management Coordination Agency -DMCA and website – www.dmca.gov.msand ZJB Radio Montserrat for regular updates. Continue reading

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7 DAY MARINE WEATHER FORECAST MON. OCTOBER 8Th TO SUN. OCTOBER 14TH, 2018

 

Monday, October 8th, 2018. 6AM. 6PM.
Seas.. are Northerly 3 to 4′ N 3 to 4 feet.
Winds.. are Easterly @ 12 E 12 MPH.
Skies.. are Cloudy most of the day.

Tuesday, October 9th, 2018
Seas.. are Northerly 3 to 4′ N 3 to 4 feet.
Winds.. are North-easterly @ 12 to 16 E 8 to 12 MPH.
Skies.. are Partly Cloudy, with a few rain showers.

Wednesday, October 10th, 2018
Seas.. are Northerly 3 to 4′ N 3 to 4 feet.
Winds.. are North-easterly @ 12 to 16 E 8 to 12 MPH.
Skies.. are Partly Sunny, with a few AM. rain showers.

Thursday, October 11th, 2018
Seas.. are Northerly 3 to 4′ N 3 to 4 feet.
Winds.. are Easterly @ 8 E 8 MPH.
Skies.. are Partly Sunny, in the AM. Cloudy in the PM.

Friday, October 12th, 2018
Seas.. are Northerly 3 to 4′ N 3 to 4 feet.
Winds.. are South-easterly @ 8 SE 8 MPH.
Skies.. are Sunny, with PM. showers.

Saturday, October 13th, 2018
Seas.. are Northerly 3 N 2 to 3 feet.
Winds.. are Easterly @ 8 E 8 MPH.
Skies.. are Cloudy with rain showers.

Sunday, October 14th, 2018
Seas.. are Northerly 3 N 2 to 3 feet.
Winds.. are Easterly @ 8 to 12 E 8 to 12 MPH.
Skies.. are Cloudy with rain showers. Continue reading

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DMCA WARNS RESIDENTS TO BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL DANGERS POSED BY SINKHOLE AT SILVER HILLS WHICH HAS GROWN PROGRESSIVELY LARGER

The sinkhole located in the area of the North West Bluff of Silver Hills has grown progressively larger engulfing the fence that was set up to restrict access to the area.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA) is warning residents, particularly livestock farmers and hikers to be aware of the potential dangers when venturing in the area and to take the necessary precautions.

The DMCA will be erecting warning signs in the area to alert residents and visitors about the dangers posed by the sinkhole.
Continue reading

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MONTSERRAT NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST VALID UP TO 8 AM SATURDAY OCTOBER 6TH, 2018

 

SYNOPSIS: Some moisture and instability persisting in the atmosphere over the region will maintain a moderate chance of showers and a low chance of thunderstorms over the islands.

WEATHER TODAY: Cloudy with a 60 percent or moderate chance of showers and a 30 percent or low chance of thunderstorms this afternoon.

WEATHER TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with a 40 percent or moderate chance of showers.

WINDS: East-southeast at 13 to 22 km/h or 7 to 12 knots..

SEAS: Slight with significant wave heights 1 to 1.2 metres or 3 to 4 feet. Some long period swells breaking on the shores of the islands will continue to produce high and hazardous surfs; therefore, a high surf advisory remains in effect for beachgoers particularly for the beaches on the north and east sides of the islands.

Sunset today: 5:55 pm. Sunrise tomorrow: 6:01 am.

Please continue to monitor DMCA ’s facebook page -Montserrat Disaster Management Coordination Agency -DMCA and website – www.dmca.gov.ms and ZJB Radio Montserrat for regular updates. Continue reading

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MONTSERRAT VOLCANO OBSERVATORY (MVO) WEEKLY REPORT SEPTEMBER 21ST TO SEPTEMBER 28TH, 2018

Activity at the Soufrière Hills Volcano remains low.

The seismic network recorded one rockfall and five volcano-tectonic earthquakes this week.

There have been no measurements of the SO2 flux to report since 11 September. Data from the new permanent gas-monitoring stations, which are currently being tested, indicate that the flux remains in the range 100 to 400 tonnes per day.

Pyroclastic flows can occur at any time without warning on any side of the volcano, including Gages from where they can travel rapidly into Plymouth. Tracks across the Belham Valley can be destroyed or heavily modified by flash flooding or lahars, and caution should be exercised crossing the valley during and after rainfall.

The Hazard Level is 1. There is no public access to Zone V, including Plymouth. Maritime Zones E and W are daytime transit only between sunrise and sunset (boats may sail through the zone but must not stop). Anyone who ignores these restrictions is liable to be prosecuted. Continue reading

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HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SEA BATHERS

HERE’S THE REST OF THE MONTSERRAT NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST

VALID UP TO 8 AM TUESDAY OCTOBER 2ND, 2018

SYNOPSIS: Despite the presence of weak instability across the area low moisture levels will restrict any significant shower activity. Meanwhile, hazy conditions will continue to reduce air quality.

WEATHER TODAY: Fair to partly cloudy and hazy with a 40 percent or a moderate chance of afternoon showers.

WEATHER TONIGHT: Partly cloudy and hazy with a 30 percent of low chance of showers.

WINDS: East at 6 to 17 km/h or 3 to 9 knots and becoming variable or near calm at times.

SEAS: Moderate with significant wave heights up to 1.8 metres or 6 feet, a high surf advisory remains in effect for sea- bathers.

SUNSET TODAY: 5:58 pm. SUNRISE TOMORROW: 6:01 am.  Continue reading

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7 DAY MARINE WEATHER FORECAST MON. OCTOBER 1ST TO SUN. OCTOBER 7TH, 2018

 

Monday, October 1st, 2018
Seas.. are Northerly 4 to 5′ N 3 to 4 feet high ..
Winds.. are Easterly @ 8 E 4 to 8 MPH.
Skies.. are mostly Sunny all day..

Tuesday, October 2nd, 2018
Seas.. are Northerly 2 to 3′ N 2 to 3 feet high
Winds.. are South-easterly @ 4 SE 4 MPH
Skies.. are mostly Sunny, some PM. light rain..

Wednesday, October 3rd, 2018
Seas.. are Northerly 2 to 3′ N 2 to 3 feet high
Winds.. are South-easterly @ 4 S 4 MPH.
Skies.. are partly Sunny..

Thursday, October 4th, 2018
Seas.. are Northerly 3 to 5′ N 4 to 5 feet high ..
Winds.. are South-easterly @ 4 SE 4 to 8 MPH.
Skies.. are Cloudy with PM. rains, A Tropical wave will go through..

Friday, October 5th, 2018
Seas.. are Northerly 5′ N 4 to 5 feet high ..
Winds.. are East-south-easterly @ 8 to 12 ESE 8 MPH.
Skies.. are Cloudy with AM. rains..

Saturday, October 6th, 2018
Seas.. are Northerly 5′ N 4 to 5 feet high
Winds.. are Easterly @ 10 to 16 E 10 to 16 MPH.
Skies.. are Cloudy with AM. rains..

Sunday, October 7th, 2018
Seas.. are Northerly 4 to 5′ N 4 to 5 feet high ..
Winds.. are Easterly @ 10 to 16 SE 10 to 16 MPH.
Skies.. are Cloudy with PM. rains. Continue reading

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POST TROPICAL STORM LESLIE TO CAUSE A MINI SWELLMAGEDDON ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN

Dale Destin, Meteorologist/Climatologist for the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service Climate Section says ex-Tropical Storm Leslie is about to cause a mini Swellmageddon across much the Caribbean, after the passage of Kirk.

He says the system is expected to be a major swell-maker, which will become very evident in 24 hours; hence, Swimming conditions at many beaches will become very hazardous.

According to Destin, currently, Leslie is not a tropical cyclone. It transitioned into an extratropical cyclone, a few days ago. However, it has not gone any place. The cyclone is forecast to be resurrected. She will strengthen, return to tropical cyclone status in the next 48 hours and eventually become the sixth hurricane for the season.

The hurricane-force winds, to be produced by the cyclone, will never reach us, but they will push, dangerous and damaging sea swells to our shorelines, particularly the Atlantic-facing ones.

Swells are forecast to steeply climb to 3 metres (10 feet) on Saturday. These large and dangerous battering swells are expected to pommel our shorelines over the upcoming weekend before subsiding to safe levels by mid next week.

Recall the swell event I dubbed Swellmageddon earlier this year – March 4-7, 2018. It was a swell episode of epic proportion – almost unheard of in the Caribbean. This upcoming swell episode is not expected to be as severe, but it won’t be your garden-variety event either.

The large swells will produce even higher breaking swells or surfs, which could be as much as twice the height of the swells. This means that surfs are expected to range between 3 and 6 metres (10 to 20 feet) this weekend, depending on the bathymetry/topography of the near shore seafloor. This is expected to cause some beach closures, as swimming conditions will become very dangerous for beachgoers, by tomorrow.

This mini Swellmageddon will likely, among other things, also cause:

major beach erosion;
flooding of some low-lying coastal roads;
disruptions to marine recreation and businesses;
disruptions to potable water from desalination;
damage to coral reefs and
Financial losses.

Advisories have already been issued by a few of the region’s national meteorological services. More advisories and or warnings are expected to be issued over the upcoming days. This event will be felt as far west as the Bahamas and as far south as Guyana, Brazil and beyond. The event will also be felt along the East Coast of the United States, Canada and perhaps, as far away as, West Africa.

The impact on shorelines will not be the same everywhere. Depending on the depth and the natural shelter of the coastal waters, the impact will be different. Shallow north-facing shorelines are expected to see the highest swells and surfs. Surfs could rise to as high as 6 metres (20 feet), at some locations.

In open waters, the swells from Mini Swellmageddon will be virtually harmless to small craft operators, as they will be long-period waves with gentle gradients.

There is no chance of any of the destructive winds, from the cyclone at the centre of this significant swell event, reaching the Caribbean. Normal seasonal winds will prevail. Continue reading

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