HURRICANE SEASON IS HERE!!! PLAN AND TAKE ACTION – PREPARE FOR THE UNEXPECTED

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SCIENTIFIC ADVISORY COMMITTEE (SAC) 23 PRELIMINARY STATEMENT – NOVEMBER 8TH, 2018

Soufrière Hills volcano has shown no significant changes in its behaviour during the past year. Measurements of sulphur dioxide emission have been carried out by helicopter and the new ground-based spectrometer network, and show a steady outgassing rate. Volcanic gases that escape through fumaroles have remained at a high temperature, as observed in the previous years. Seismicity has remained at a very low level except for occasional short episodes of volcano-tectonic earthquakes. Monitoring of ground deformation indicates a slow but continuous lengthening over the island, with a maximum uplift of about one centimetre over the last year. While this is consistent with the activity we have seen over the previous 7 years, we now begin to see a small reduction in the rate of deformation.

Taking these observations together, we conclude that the volcano remains in a state of unrest. We consider the most likely cause of this unrest to be a pressurised magma system. While a restart of lava extrusion remains a possibility in the future, there are no signs that this is imminent. We consider that the most likely scenario for the next year is a continuation of the current state.

The major part of the lava dome remains stable but continuing erosion has the potential to destabilize steep parts of the dome. The chance that pyroclastic flows will occur within the next year remains low. However, the volcano is still a potential source of hazards, some of which could occur at any time with little or no warning and could pose a threat to people working in or visiting certain areas of Zone V. Continue reading

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MONTSERRAT’S NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST VALID UP TO 8 AM THURSDAY NOVEMBER 15TH, 2018

 

SYNOPSIS: The presence of a persistent trough and lingering moisture and instability from a tropical wave will continue to generate cloudiness with showers across the Islands today and tonight. Possible rainfall total for the forecast period is 10 to 15 mm or 0.4 to 0.6 inch. The flash flood watch has been extended to 8 am.

WEATHER TODAY: Cloudy spells with a 70 percent or high chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Weather tonight: Partly cloudy with a 50 percent or moderate chance of showers.

WINDS: East southeast at 22 to 33 km/h or 12 to 18 knots.

SEAS: Significant wave heights 2.1 metres or 7 feet. The small craft advisory is in effect.

Sunset today: 5:35 pm. Sunrise tomorrow: 6:13 am.

Please continue to monitor DMCA ’s facebook page -Montserrat Disaster Management Coordination Agency -DMCA and website – www.dmca.gov.msand ZJB Radio Montserrat for regular updates. Continue reading

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ANTIGUA MET OFFICE ISSUES MINOR FLOODING ADVISORY FOR MONTSERRAT; DMCA URGES MOTORISTS TO DRIVE WITH DUE CARE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS

The Antigua Meteorological Services has issued a flash flood advisory for Montserrat.

The warning is in effect for minor flooding in low lying and flood prone areas and is valid until 5 pm today.

Therefore, the Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA) is advising motorists to drive with due care and attention and be mindful of areas prone to flooding. The areas are Robert W Griffith Drive from Little Bay to Carrs Bay – adjacent to Piper’s Pond and Pump Ghaut in St John’s.

The DMCA is also cautioning motorists especially when driving to remain alert and look out for areas prone to landslides and rockfalls namely from Forgathy to Cudjoe Head, Pump Ghaut to Look Out and the Barzey’s area.

Residents in Isles Bay Hill and other persons crossing the Belham Valley River are asked to take extra precautions during heavy rainfall associated due, to the possibility of lahars occurring with little or no warning in the area.

A flood advisory means that streams, creeks and drains may be elevated or even overflowing into streets, low lying and flood prone areas; however, property damage will be minimal.

Inconveniences can be expected but the flooding is not expected to be immediately life-threatening. however, just one foot of flowing water is enough to sweep vehicles off the road. when encountering flooded roads be extremely cautious, and if in doubt, make the smart choice, turn around don’t drown. move to higher ground.

A persistent trough over the northeast Caribbean is influencing the weather over the leeward and British Virgin Islands, causing periodic heavy showers. already, based on radar estimates, up to an inch of rainfall has fallen in the vicinity of the island. hence, minor flooding of low lying and flood prone areas is expected. Continue reading

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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN OUR AREA COULD BECOME A DEPRESSION OR STORM IN 24 HRS OR SO; RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY, BE PREPARED, IF NEEDED, TO TAKE ACTION

A vigorous tropical wave located about 200 miles east of the Leeward Islands is producing a large area of disturbed weather over much of the western tropical Atlantic Ocean. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become a little more concentrated this morning, and environmental conditions are forecast to gradually become more conducive for the development of a tropical depression or a tropical storm during the next day or so.

The disturbance is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward for the next few days, passing near or north of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern Bahamas. Interests in these areas
should closely monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent. Continue reading

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ANOTHER VERY WET 24 HRS FOR MONTSERRAT DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL98

HERE’S THE REST OF MONTSERRAT’S NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST

VALID UP TO 8 AM TUESDAY NOVEMBER 13TH, 2018

SYNOPSIS: An area of disturbed weather associated with an approaching tropical wave will result in yet another eventful day across the island. With the land already saturated, additional rainfall could easily cause streets and low lying areas to flood. Residents are therefore asked to be cautious while manoeuvring through these flood waters. Possible rainfall total for the forecast period is 10 to 50 mm or 0.40 to 2.0 inches.

WEATHER TODAY: Mostly cloudy skies with showers and a moderate chance of thunderstorms.

WEATHER TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms.

WINDS: East-northeasterly today becoming east southeasterly overnight and will range between 9 to 28 km/h or 5 to 15 knots. Higher gusts are likely as a result of shower downpours.

SEAS: 1.5 to 2.1 metres or 5 to 7 feet dominated by easterly swells reaching 1.5 meters or 5 feet. Beachgoers should, therefore, exercise caution.

Sunset today: 5:36 pm. Sunrise tomorrow: 6:12 am. Continue reading

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7 DAY MARINE WEATHER FORECAST MON. NOVEMBER 12th TO SUN. NOVEMBER 18th, 2018

 

Monday, November 12th, 2018 6AM. 6PM.
Seas.. are 4 to 5′ 5 to 6 feet.
Winds. are North-easterly @ Easterly @ 12 MPH.
Skies.. are Sunny with passing light showers as a Tropical Wave and Weather System passes in the PM.

Tuesday, November 13th, 2018
Seas.. are 5′ 4 to 5 feet.
Winds. are Easterly @ 12 to 16 SE @ 8 MPH.
Skies.. are Sunny with passing light showers in the PM.

Wednesday, November 14th, 2018
Seas.. are 5 to 6′ 6 to 7 feet.
Winds. are South-easterly @ 16 SE @ 16 MPH.
Skies.. overnight showers and partly Sunny Skies.

Thursday, November 15th, 2018
Seas.. are 6 to 7′ 7 feet.
Winds. are South-easterly @ 16 to 20 SE @ 20 to 25 MPH.
Skies.. Partly Sunny Skies.

Friday, November 16th, 2018
Seas.. are 7′ 7 feet.
Winds. are Easterly @ 18 to 20+ E @ 18 to 20+ MPH.
Skies.. Partly Sunny Skies, with a few passing showers.

Saturday, November 17th, 2018
Seas.. are 7′ 7 feet.
Winds. are Easterly @ 18 to 20+ E @ 18 to 20+ MPH.
Skies.. Overnight showers, Sunny Skies.

Sunday, November 18th, 2018
Seas.. are 5 to 6′ 5 to 6 feet.
Winds. are Easterly @ 18 to 20+ E @ 18 to 20 MPH.
Skies.. Sunny Skies, with passing showers. Continue reading

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MONTSERRAT’S NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST VALID UP TO 8 AM SATURDAY NOVEMBER 10TH, 2018

 

SYNOPSIS: A moist and unstable air mass across the Leeward Islands and British Virgin Islands will maintain a high chance for cloudiness and showers over the next twenty-four hours.

WEATHER TODAY: Cloudy with a 70 percent or high chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms.

WEATHER TONIGHT: Cloudy with a 70 percent or high chance of showers.

WINDS: East northeast at 19 to 33 km/h or 10 to 18 knots.

SEAS: Significant wave heights 1.5 to 1.8 metres or 5 to 6 feet. Small craft operators should exercise caution

Sunset today: 5:36 pm. Sunrise tomorrow: 6:10 am. Continue reading

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MONTSERRAT’S NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST VALID UP TO 8 AM FRIDAY NOVEMBER 9TH, 2018

 

SYNOPSIS: The presence of atmospheric moisture, instability, and mixing from a favourable low-level wind flow will support occasional periods of cloudiness and passing showers over the Leewards today

WEATHER TODAY: Cloudy spells with occasional brief passing showers some of which could be moderate at times. There is also a slight chance of a thunderstorm this afternoon

WEATHER TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to cloudy with a 40 percent or moderate chance of passing showers

WINDS: East-southeasterly with average speeds between 8 to 14 knots or 15 to 26km/h gusting higher in some showers.

SEAS: Combination of wave and swells reaching between 1.2 to1.8 meters or 4 to 6 feet. Small craft operators should exercise caution against marginally safe seas.

Sunset today: 5:37 pm.                                        Sunrise tomorrow: 6:10 am.

Please continue to monitor DMCA ’s facebook page -Montserrat Disaster Management Coordination Agency -DMCA and website – www.dmca.gov.msand ZJB Radio Montserrat for regular updates.

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MONTSERRAT’S NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST VALID UP TO 8 AM THURSDAY NOVEMBER 8TH, 2018

SYNOPSIS: A surface trough along with favourable conditions in the mid to upper atmosphere will contribute to cloud formation and showers over the Leewards today with improvements expected by tonight. Rainfall amounting to 12.7 mm or 0.5 inch could be realized in heavier showers later this afternoon

WEATHER TODAY: Partly cloudy in the morning becoming increasingly cloudy with occasional showers and a moderate chance of thunderstorms this afternoon

WEATHER TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with light rain this evening with a gradual reduction in shower activity overnight

WINDS: Winds: East-southeast at average speeds between 6 to12 knots or 13 to 22km/h.

SEAS: combined seas reaching between 1.4 to1.8 meters or 4 to 6 feet. Small craft operators should exercise caution against marginally safe seas.

Sunset today: 5:37 pm. Sunrise tomorrow: 6:10 am.

Please continue to monitor DMCA ’s facebook page -Montserrat Disaster Management Coordination Agency -DMCA and website – www.dmca.gov.msand ZJB Radio Montserrat for regular updates. Continue reading

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MONTSERRAT RECOGNIZES WORLD TSUNAMI AWARENESS DAY

Although no activities are being held locally, today, to commemorate the day, the Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA) continues its tsunami preparedness education to establish tsunami ready communities across Montserrat and a national tsunami plan is currently being finalized to take to Cabinet for approval.

Tsunamis are a rare event, but they can be extremely deadly, hence, the DMCA believes the observance of this day will bring greater awareness to the dangers of tsunamis and help improve residents knowledge and preparedness.

Though the topography in Montserrat has very few low lying areas, a tsunami could still impact the island depending on the intensity of the tsunami waves, the undersea features, and the land topographic elevations.

In the event, Montserrat should be impacted by a tsunami, the islandwide siren system installed will warn residents of a tsunami threat on the island. The sirens are tested daily.

A tsunami warning sign has already been erected at Little Bay as part of DMCA’s efforts to raise awareness among the general public of how to react to the threat of tsunamis.

Little Bay has been identified as the first area to benefit from the installation of the first tsunami warning sign and tsunami simulation exercise will be conducted in that area in 2019.

This project will see other tsunami-vulnerable areas benefitting from the installation signage including evacuation routes and the demarcation of rendezvous points and mapping of vulnerable coastlines.

Meantime, Director of the Montserrat Volcano Observatory (MVO) Roderick Stewart says in Montserrat, there have been three occasions when collapses of the dome entered the sea and generated tsunamis.

They are the December 26, 1997, collapse in White River valley that generated a small tsunami in Old Road Bay and the collapses on July 13, 2003, and on May 20, 2006, that, generated wave heights around the Tar River Valley up to 6-8 metres.

Mr Stewart confirmed that these tsunamis were very localised and would not have been seen at other locations.

He said the tsunami hazard in Montserrat that needs to be highlighted is from more distant sources – tsunamis generated by other volcanoes in the Caribbean Sea or generated by earthquakes.

“The Caribbean Tsunami Warning System will hopefully provide warning of these”, he stated.

The theme for this year’s observance is “reducing direct disaster economic loss in relation to GDP”.

Continue reading

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