Meteorologist/Climatologist for the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service Climate Section, Dale Destin, has forecast an active or above-normal 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season with a high chance of being well above normal or a super hyperactive one.

Mr Destin’s early prediction calls for a near record-breaking 27 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 7 major hurricanes and an accumulated cyclone energy index (ACE) of 233.

The primary factors driving Destin’s above-normal season forecast are the expectation of persistently warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the tropical North Atlantic (TNA), coupled with anticipated cooler-than-normal SSTs across the eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean or La Niña. The simultaneous occurrence of these phenomena, during the hurricane season, sets the stage for what could be near-perfect conditions for a super hyperactive season.

Notwithstanding, there are uncertainties regarding the forecast; these are mainly due to the unknowable intensity and frequency of Saharan Dust that will traverse the TNA. Dust inhibits hurricane formation, but it cannot be forecast beyond days; hence, it is not factored into the hurricane season forecast.

The programme offered a unique opportunity for young Caribbean environmental advocates and community leaders like Miss Sweeney to learn about Climate Justice, engage with global policymakers, and promote climate action.

Miss Sweeney, who is also a Geography and Agricultural Science teacher at the Montserrat Secondary School (MSS), has an opportunity to be selected to travel to the 2024 United Nations Climate Change Conference in November 2024 in Baku, Azerbaijan, which is fully funded.

In 2023, DMCA contacted Ms. Sweeney to participate in the programme, and without hesitation, she jumped at the opportunity and accepted it quickly and eagerly.

DMCA wishes Ms. Sweeney all the best in her future endeavours and looks forward to working with her on disaster management projects.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA) will conduct a tsunami evacuation drill at Woodlands Beach on Thursday, 21 March 2024 as part of Caribe Wave to test Montserrat’s preparedness and response protocols in emergency communications and evacuation procedures.

Extreme caution is also required by those using the affected non-beach or rocky coastlines.

Spear and Shoreline Fishers must exercise caution and be vigilant when venturing onto the above coastlines as powerful waves can put your life at risk.

A one-week baseline assessment workshop began today at the Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA) to review Montserrat’s Emergency Management Standard.

The assessment is being conducted by members of the Emergency Management Accreditation Program (EMAP) in the USA. EMAP is an independent non-profit organization that fosters excellence and accountability in emergency management and programs by establishing credible standards in a peer-reviewed accreditation process.

The workshop evaluates Montserrat’s disaster management programme to see where it meets EMAP standards and to look at areas for improvement to strengthen the island’s emergency preparedness measures and response capabilities efficiently and effectively.

This week’s activity is critical and timely due to an increase in catastrophic natural disasters caused by climate change.

The Emergency Management Standard covers Program Management, Administration and Finance, and Laws and Authorities; Hazard Identification, Risk Assessment and Consequence Analysis; Hazard Mitigation, Prevention; Continuity Planning and Procedures; Operational Planning and Procedures; Incident Management; Resource Management; Mutual Aid and Logistics; Communications and Warning; Facilities; Training; Exercises, Evaluations and Corrective Action and Emergency Public Education and Information.

The workshop is bringing together disaster management stakeholders from the Montserrat Fire and Rescue Services, Customs, Montserrat Port Authority, Royal Montserrat Defence Force, Royal Montserrat Police Service, John A Osborne Airport, Ministry of Health and Social Services, Ministry of Agriculture, Lands and the Environment, Ministry of Finance, Public Works Department and Montserrat Red Cross.

The workshop, which runs from Monday, 19 February to Friday, 23 February 2024, is sponsored by the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCDO) and hosted by DMCA.

Synopsis: Strong gusty winds, due to the forecast tightening of the pressure gradient, are expected. The direct wind threat level will be minimal to life, livelihood, property and infrastructure; notwithstanding, these winds could make some outdoor activities uncomfortable, if not outright dangerous. High winds could create dangerous falling or blowing objects. A high wind advisory means strong sustained winds in the range of 25 to 31 mph, 22 to 27 knots with higher gusts imminent or occurring.

Wind: East-northeast at 15 to 25 knots; 17 to 29 mph, with strong gusts to 39 knots; 44 mph. The strongest winds are expected on Wednesday.

Potential impacts: Includes injuries; very hazardous seas; soil erosion; localized disruptions of some businesses; disruptions to outdoor and sporting activities; disruptions of transportation (air and especially sea); vehicular accidents and financial losses.

Caution: Residents should secure loose, light outdoor items, which can be blown away, and caution should be taken when driving.

The 2023 Atlantic Hurricane season officially ends today, Thursday, November 30.

The last six months were filled with multiple threats and one very close. Montserrat was spared a direct hit from Hurricane Tammy, and we were extremely fortunate that the system turned away from us.

We are hopeful, that this streak will continue for many years to come!

This 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season saw above-normal activity with 20 named storms. Seven storms were hurricanes, and three intensified into major hurricanes. This season ranks fourth for the most-named storms in a year since 1950.

Today, Sunday, 5 November 2023, the Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA) unites with the global community to observe World Tsunami Awareness Day.

Tsunamis are rare, but their impact can be highly deadly and devastating. A tsunami is a series of enormous waves created by an underwater disturbance usually associated with earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, submarine landslides, and coastal rock falls.

Tsunamis are often accompanied by natural signs: FEEL, SEE, HEAR, RUN. Therefore, it’s vital residents and visitors on Montserrat know the tsunami warning signs when they’re at the beach before a wave strikes to save their lives.

If you’re near the shoreline and feel a strong or long earthquake, see a sudden rise or fall of the ocean or hear a loud roar from the ocean, a tsunami may follow. This is your warning. Run to higher ground as fast as you can.

World Tsunami Awareness Day is being held under the theme of ‘Fighting Inequality for a Resilient Future’. The main objective is to raise awareness about reducing the risks created by tsunamis and improving community preparedness on Montserrat.

In December 2015, the UN General Assembly designated 5th November as World Tsunami Awareness Day.

As a CDEMA Participating State, the DMCA on Montserrat was identified as a Technical Representative on the Committee.

The aim of the two-day meeting is to review and update the work programme of the CSSSC; create and endorse a plan of action for the implementation of the Work Programme and provide relevant updates from each CSSSC member on efforts to achieve results under the Regional Outcomes of Priority Area 4 of the CDM Strategy – Community Resilience.

The meeting will also provide an opportunity for exploring synergies and other relevant projects being undertaken within CDEMA’s 19 Participating States.

The Civil Society Sector Sub-Committee (CSSSC) is a subcommittee of the Comprehensive Disaster Management Strategy (CDM) Coordination and Harmonization Council (CDM CHC) and has the responsibility of guiding CDM implementation in the Civil Society Sector.

Photo Courtesy: CDEMA