In this special feature, the Director of the Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA, on Montserrat extends congratulations to the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency, CDEMA, on the agency’s 30th Anniversary.

CDEMA celebrated its 30th anniversary on September 9, 2021, of providing Disaster Response Services and support to the region in the areas of Comprehensive Disaster Risk Management including Disaster Response.

CDEMA, formerly the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency (CDERA) was created in 1991 as a specialized regional institution with a mandate to advance and deepen functional cooperation across CARICOM Member Countries, which includes Montserrat, in Disaster Risk Management.

Happy Anniversary and our best wishes for many years to come!

Thursday September 23, 2021 – The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA is closely monitoring Tropical Storm Sam located about 1635 miles East-Southeast of the Northern Leeward Islands which includes Montserrat. The system is expected to come close to a major category 3 hurricane by the end of the weekend with top winds of 111 to 129 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The majority of long-range forecast models have Tropical Storm Sam turning north or north east of the Caribbean which includes Montserrat, hence residents should continue to watch the storm closely.

At 5 PM, the center of Tropical Storm Sam was located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 39.7 West. Sam is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and a general west to west-northwest motion is expected to continue over the next several days, with a gradual slowdown in forward motion.Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast during the next several days. Sam is forecast to become a hurricane tomorrow morning and could become a major hurricane by Saturday.Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND: None.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA will continue to keep an eye on Tropical Storm Sam, and will provide regular updates as new information is released.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA is closely monitoring Tropical Storm Sam forecast to become a hurricane by tomorrow and a major hurricane (Category 3 or more) early next week.

The majority of long-range forecast models have the storm turning north or north east of the Caribbean which includes Montserrat, hence residents should continue to watch the storm closely.

At 11 AM, the center of Tropical Storm Sam was located near latitude 10.9 North, longitude 38.1 West. Sam is moving toward the west near 16 mph and this general motion is expected to continue over the next several days, but with a gradual slowdown in forward motion.

Recent sallite wind data indicates maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast over the next several days, and Sam is now forecast to become a hurricane tomorrow and be near major hurricane intensity by the end of the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND – None.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA will continue to keep an eye on Tropical Storm Sam, and will provide regular updates as new information is released.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency is closely monitoring Tropical Depression 18 located about 2030 miles ESE of the Northern Leeward Islands which include Montserrat.

At 5 PM, the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen was located near latitude 10.1 North, longitude 33.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so followed by a gradual turn to the west-northwest by Friday.Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts.

Strengthening is forecast over the next several days.

The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm by tomorrow, and could be near hurricane intensity by the weekend.The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

Residents are urged to continue to monitor the Atlantic for any changes with Tropical Depression 18 over the next several days.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA will continue to keep an eye on Tropical Depression 18, and will provide regular updates as new information is released.

In its 2 pm advisory, the National Hurricane Center said a tropical depression could form Wednesday afternoon or evening.

The NHC said Disturbance 1 known as INVEST 98L is becoming better defined and is expected to move west at 10 to 15 mph into the central Atlantic over the next few days.

Residents are urged to continue to monitor the Atlantic for any changes with Tropical Disturbance 1 over the next several days.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA will continue to keep an eye on Tropical Disturbances 1, and will provide regular updates as new information is released.

Wednesday September 22, 2021 – The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA is this morning monitoring Tropical Disturbance 1 known as INVEST 98L (red) located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.

According to the National Hurricane Center, showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in association with INVEST 98L.

It states that environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to form within a day or two while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean. INVEST 98L now has a 90% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in 2 days.

Residents are urged to continue to monitor the Atlantic for any changes with this Tropical Disturbance 1 over the next several days.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA will continue to keep an eye on Tropical Disturbances 1, and will provide regular updates as new information is released.

Tuesday September 21, 2021 – The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA is monitoring Tropical Disturbance 1 (red) located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. The tropical disturbance is designated INVEST 98L by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

The NHC said environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development of INVEST 98L, and a tropical depression is likely to form by Thursday or Friday, while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern, and central tropical Atlantic Ocean. The disturbance (INVEST 98L) has a 70% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in 5 days.

Residents are urged to continue to monitor the Atlantic for any changes with Tropical Disturbance 1 (INVEST 98L) over the next several days.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA will continue to monitor Tropical Disturbances 1 (INVEST 98L) progression, and keep you updated as new information is released from the NHC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT

ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
11:45 AM ECT MON SEP 20 2021

  
…TROPICAL STORM PETER IS PASSING SAFE DISTANCE AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS…

THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF  TROPICAL STORM PETER. 

PETER POSES LITTLE TO NO THREAT TO ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA, THE REST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. ALSO, THE SYSTEM POSES NO THREAT TO THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN.

AT 11 AM, TROPICAL STORM PETER WAS CENTRED ABOUT 175 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH. 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE NOTE THAT NO TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERTS, WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT AND NONE WILL AGAIN BE REQUIRED FOR THIS SYSTEM.

RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM PETER UNTIL IT IS OUT OF THE AREA. 

THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND 11 AM TOMORROW OR SOONER, IF REQUIRED.

FORECASTER DALE DESTIN

Monday September 20, 2021 – The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA is monitoring Tropical Disturbance 1 (red) located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic several hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. The system is showing some signs of organization and upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for further development by midweek, and a tropical depression is likely to form by Friday.

The system is moving westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean and has a 70% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in 5 days.

Residents are urged to continue to monitor the Atlantic for any changes with this Tropical Disturbance 1 over the next several days.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA will continue to keep an eye on Tropical Disturbances 1, and will provide regular updates as new information is released.

Synopsis: The center of Tropical Storm Peter continues at a safe distance away from the Caribbean Islands. However, the system has created a slack pressure gradient over the area causing the winds to be light. These light winds will allow for some daytime heating and with a trough forecast to move across the northern islands the chance for shower activity will be increased. In addition to this, a moisture band associated with Tropical Storm Peter is also forecast to move across this same area and will contribute to the unsettled weather conditions.

Weather today: Partly cloudy becoming cloudy at times with a 70 percent or a high chance of showers mainly this afternoon.

Winds: Generally south and sometimes variable where speeds will range from 11 to 24 km/h or 7 to 15 mph.

Seas: not exceeding 1.5 metres or 5 feet.

Sunset today: 6:07 pm.

Temperatures: nighttime highs reaching 32°C or 90°F.

Remember, the weather can change at a moment’s notice, Stay Ahead! Events such as flash floods can occur with little or no warning due to prolonged rain, rain showers in the higher elevations and the soil already saturated.

Weather Report: Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological ServicesLetitia Humphreys-Forecaster