The Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA) is urging residents and visitors to exercise extreme caution when crossing the Belham Valley River as Lahars/mudflows can occur at any time without warning due to a significant amount of rainfall from a trough system approaching our area from the southeast.

According to the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services, based on the forecast models, the greater activity from this trough, the heavy shower and thunderstorm activity, should start from around midday today Friday, April 29, 2022, across the Leeward Islands, which include Montserrat.

It states that there’s a probability of rainfall totals peaking to near 100 mm or 4 inches over the next 60 hours. With this kind of rainfall possible depending on the intensity and duration, flash flooding and associated impacts are of concern.

Therefore, residents and visitors are advised to be careful in areas that are generally prone to landslides, rockfalls and flashfloods including Carrs’ Bay and Little Bay, and take the necessary precautions.

Motorists are encouraged to be extra careful when driving in these conditions as wet weather driving can be hazardous, causing skidding.

The DMCA will continue to monitor the weather conditions and, provide updates as necessary.

Dale Destin, Meteorologist/Climatologist for the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service Climate Section said a trough system is poised to cause wet weather across the northeast Caribbean, including Montserrat on Friday/Saturday.

He explained that several of the more reliable weather models are forecasting the potential (10 percent chance) for rainfall totals exceeding 25 mm (over 1 inch) to fall over the period Friday to Sunday of this weekend.

Destin further went on to say that the potential total for over 25 mm in 72 hours is not in and of itself a high figure. He added that whereas all models consulted are forecasting rainfall for the weekend, the forecast totals differ, as can be expected. At the lower end of the potential rainfall scale some are projecting a 10 percent chance of over 25 mm (over an inch), while others are suggesting potentially higher totals, a 10 percent chance of over 75 mm (3 in) for the weekend.

The Meteorologist stated that GFS 24hr precipitation total exceedance forecast probabilities showing all areas with at least a 10 percent chance of getting over 50 mm (2 in) of rainfall from 2 am Saturday, 30 April to 2 am Sunday, 1 May 2022.

Destin said if the models prove right, and the upper end of the rainfall potential materialises, some places across the northeast Caribbean which includes Montserrat, could see the average total for April falling in one weekend, if not one day.

The possible rainfall total for the area is 25 to 100 mm (1 to 4 in). With this kind of rainfall possible, depending on the intensity and duration, flash flooding and associated impacts are of concern.

Deterministic rainfall accumulation forecast by the GFS model from Thursday, 28 April to Sunday, 1 May 2022Destin stated that the system has already caused wet weather across the southern Caribbean with some areas receiving over 75 mm (3 in). The trough also prompted flash flood warnings for some islands.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA is urging residents, visitors and the vulnerable on Montserrat to be vigilant and exercise caution as flash floods, landslides and rockfalls can occur with little or no warning, due to prolonged rain, rain showers in higher elevations and soil saturation.

Source: Dale Destin, Meteorologist/Climatologist for the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service Climate Section.

Beachgoers, Spear and Shoreline Fishers are advised to use caution and remain vigilant when venturing onto affected coastlines as powerful waves can put your life at risk.

According to a High Surf Caution issued by the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services late last night, Moderate long period swells are reaching the area and are affecting mainly northern and north-facing coastlines.

Locations to be affected: Reefs and exposed northern and north-facing coastlines with relatively shallow, gently to moderately sloping, nearshore areas.

Synopsis: The threat level to the life, livelihood, property and infrastructure of those using the affected coastlines is moderate, with the potential for significant impacts. These swells are expected to cause life threatening surfs and rip currents for affected coastlines. A high surf advisory means that dangerous surfs of 2 to 3 metres or 6 to 10 feet will affect some coastlines in the advisory area, producing hazardous conditions.

Seas (significant wave heights): 1.5 to 2.1 metres (5 to 7 feet), occasionally or locally reaching near 2.7 metres (9 feet). Swell period: 9 to 13 seconds. Swells: North at 1.5 to 2.1 metres (5 to 7 feet) and occasionally higher.

Surfs (breaking swells): Over 2 metres (over 6 feet). These conditions are conducive for dangerous rip currents. Please note that surfs could be as much as twice the height of swells, depending on the bathymetry of the nearshore areas.

Coastal flooding: High tides combined with onshore wind and swell actions could result in localized coastal flooding and beach erosion.

Potential Impacts: Loss of life–strong currents that can carry even the strongest swimmers out to sea; injuries to beachgoers; beach erosion; sea water splashing onto low lying coastal roads; beach closures; localized disruptions to marine recreation and businesses; financial losses; damage to coral reefs; saltwater intrusion and disruptions to potable water from desalination. High surfs can knock spectators off exposed rocks and jetties.

Precautionary: Beachgoers, especially to the mainly affected coastlines, should be extremely cautious; bathe only where lifeguards are present or the sheltered, less affected beaches, mainly to the south. Extreme caution is also required by those using the affected non-beach or rocky coastlines.

Rip currents are powerful channels of water flowing quickly away from shore, which occur most often at low spots or breaks in the sandbar and near structures such as groins, jetties and piers. If caught in a rip current, relax and float. Don`t swim against the current. If able, swim in a direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

Forecaster: Dale Destin

The Ministry of Health and Social Services (MoHSS) is today reporting that during the period 12:01p.m. Saturday April 23, 2022 to today Wednesday April 27, 2022 (as of 12 noon) 27 new cases of COVID-19 were recorded; all of which were locally transmitted.

This brings the number of active cases on Montserrat to 38, as there was also one recovery during the reporting period.

48 results are pending and 92 people are in quarantine.

The Ministry of Health and Social Services is urging residents to be vigilant to protect themselves from the virus by wearing facial coverings and social distancing when in public spaces and by practicing good hand hygiene.

Source: GIU Montserrat

Beachgoers, Spear and Shoreline Fishers are advised to use caution and remain vigilant when venturing onto affected coastlines as powerful waves can put your life at risk.Locations to be affected: Reefs and exposed northern and north-facing coastlines with relatively shallow, gently to moderately sloping, nearshore areas.

Timing: until Saturday morning

Synopsis: Moderate long period swells are expected to reach the area and affect mainly northern and north-facing coastlines. The threat level to the life, livelihood, property and infrastructure of those using the affected coastlines is forecast to rise to high, with the potential for extensive impacts. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surfs and rip currents for affected coastlines. A high surf advisory means that dangerous surfs of 2 to 3 metres or 6 to 10 feet will affect some coastlines in the advisory area, producing hazardous conditions.

Seas (significant wave heights): 1.5 to 2.4 metres (5 to 8 feet), occasionally or locally reaching near 3 metres (10 feet). Swell period: 9 to 13 seconds. Swells: North at 1.5 to 2.1 metres (5 to 7 feet) and occasionally higher.

Surfs (breaking swells): Over 2 metres (over 6 feet). These conditions are conducive for dangerous rip currents. Please note that surfs could be as much as twice the height of swells, depending on the bathymetry of the nearshore areas.

Coastal flooding: High tides combined with onshore wind and swell actions could result in localized coastal flooding and beach erosion.

Potential Impacts: Loss of life–strong currents that can carry even the strongest swimmers out to sea; injuries to beachgoers; beach erosion; sea water splashing onto low lying coastal roads; beach closures; localized disruptions to marine recreation and businesses; financial losses; damage to coral reefs; saltwater intrusion and disruptions to potable water from desalination. High surfs can knock spectators off exposed rocks and jetties.

Precautionary: Beachgoers, especially to the mainly affected coastlines, should be extremely cautious; bathe only where lifeguards are present or the sheltered, less affected beaches, mainly to the south. Extreme caution is also required by those using the affected non-beach or rocky coastlines.

Rip currents are powerful channels of water flowing quickly away from shore, which occur most often at low spots or breaks in the sandbar and near structures such as groins, jetties and piers. If caught in a rip current, relax and float. Don`t swim against the current. If able, swim in a direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

Forecaster: Dale Destin

The Ministry of Health and Social Services is today alerting residents of a sharp increase in cases of COVID-19 on island.

The cases have been found to be primarily locally transmitted; meaning the infected individuals have no recent travel history.

Children also appear to be most affected in this current outbreak.Samples have been sent to CARPHA for genomic sequencing to determine the variant in circulation and contract tracing is on-going.

Residents are asked to assist the Ministry in containing this virus by isolating and reporting any flu-like symptoms experienced to the Ministry via telephone numbers 496-7437 or 493-4755.

Additionally, residents should be vigilant to protect themselves from the virus by wearing facial coverings and social distancing when in public spaces and by practicing good hand hygiene.

Unvaccinated individuals are invited to register for Moderna COVID-19 vaccination by contacting the St. John’s Health Centre at 492-5218.The latest COVID-19 figures will be published in the next dashboard, however as of April 23, 2022 there were twelve active cases on island.

Source: GIU

Today, World Earth Day highlights the important work being done on the island for the benefit of Montserrat and, to advance preparation in the event of an oil spill occurring on our shores.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA in collaboration with the Montserrat Port Authority, MPA continues to make significant progress in the development and implementation of a national Oil Spill Preparedness and Response programme should an oil spill occur on our shores.

The DMCA and the MPA have conducted series of oil-spill training exercises with a number of key agencies to minimize and effectively respond to any oil spill on Montserrat. They are the Royal Montserrat Defence Force (RMDF), Montserrat Fire and Rescue Service (MFRS), Royal Montserrat Police Service (RMPS) Marine Unit, Montserrat Port Authority, Delta Petroleum Limited, and the DMCA. The exercises also involved shore clean up and assessment training.

Additionally, a national oil spill plan has been drafted to take to Parliament for ratification. This Oil spill plan is the bedrock for effective preparedness and response to oil spill emergencies on Montserrat. It also provides for the establishment of an effective and coordinated national oil spill preparedness and response system.

Senior Disaster Management Coordinator at the DMCA, Astrid Wade who is spearheading Montserrat’s national Oil Spill Preparedness and Response programme, says the training exercises were well received by all the participants, however, legislation and enforcement measures are critical to the success of the national oil spill programme.

An oil spill is one of the most dangerous manmade disasters. An oil spill can poison waterways, kill vegetation, and destroy environments and wildlife and caused irreparable harm to humans exposed to oil spills.

The Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) provided the equipment, booms, skimmers and, Personal protective equipment (PPE) for the National Response to an Oil Spill on Montserrat.

Earth Day came about following a huge oil spill off the Santa Barbara coastline in Southern California on January 28, 1969.The theme for Earth Day 2022 is “Invest In Our Planet.”

June 1 marks the start of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The Colorado State University recently released their 2022 Hurricane Seasonal outlook, which predicts another active season.

No matter what the hurricane season outlook predicts, it’s important to remember that it only takes one storm to devastate Montserrat. Now is the time to prepare your home and your family.

Speaking to ZJB News, DMCA’s Information and Education Shirlian Queeley encourages residents and visitors on Montserrat to assess their vulnerabilities now, as seasonal storms can develop before June 1st.Click on the link below to here more on this story.

Beachgoers, Spear and Shoreline Fishers are advised to use caution and remain vigilant when venturing onto affected coastlines as powerful waves can put your life at risk.

According to a High Surf Caution issued by the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services today, moderate long period swells are reaching the area and affecting mainly northern and north-facing coastlines.

Locations to be affected: Reefs and exposed northern and eastern coastlines with relatively shallow, gently to moderately sloping, nearshore areas.

Timing: Friday morning until Saturday for Montserrat.

Synopsis: The threat level to the life, livelihood, property and infrastructure of those using the affected coastlines is expected to rise to moderate, with the potential for significant impacts. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surfs and rip currents for affected coastlines. A high surf advisory means that dangerous surfs of 2 to 3 metres or 6 to 10 feet will affect some coastlines in the advisory area, producing hazardous conditions.

Seas (significant wave heights): 1.5 to 2.4 metres (5 to 8 feet), occasionally or locally reaching near 3 metres (10 feet). Swell period: 9 to 14 seconds.

Swells: North at 1.5 to 2.1 metres (5 to 7 feet) and occasionally higher.

Surfs (breaking swells): Over 2 metres (over 6 feet). These conditions are conducive for dangerous rip currents. Please note that surfs could be as much as twice the height of swells, depending on the bathymetry of the nearshore areas.

Coastal flooding: High tides combined with onshore wind and swell actions could result in localized coastal flooding and beach erosion.

Potential Impacts: Loss of life–strong currents that can carry even the strongest swimmers out to sea; injuries to beachgoers; beach erosion; sea water splashing onto low lying coastal roads; beach closures; localized disruptions to marine recreation and businesses; financial losses; damage to coral reefs; saltwater intrusion and disruptions to potable water from desalination. High surfs can knock spectators off exposed rocks and jetties.

Precautionary: Beachgoers, especially to the mainly affected coastlines, should be extremely cautious; bathe only on the sheltered less affected beaches. Extreme caution is also required by those using the affected non-beach or rocky coastlines.

Rip currents are powerful channels of water flowing quickly away from shore, which occur most often at low spots or breaks in the sandbar and near structures such as groins, jetties and piers. If caught in a rip current, relax and float. Don`t swim against the current. If able, swim in a direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

Continue to monitor DMCA Facebook, Instagram and Twitter social media sites and our website http://dmca.gov.ms for daily weather updates, public advisories and warnings and information on natural and man-made hazards to which Montserrat is prone.

Activity at the Soufrière Hills Volcano remains low.

The seismic network recorded no volcanic events the week.

There are no SO2 flux measurements to report during this reporting period.

Due to the large size of the lava dome, pyroclastic flows can occur at any time without warning on any side of the volcano, including Gages from where they can travel rapidly into Plymouth. Tracks across the Belham Valley can be destroyed or heavily modified by flash flooding or lahars, and caution should be exercised crossing the valley during and after rainfall.

The Hazard Level is 1.

There is no public access to Zone V, including Plymouth. Maritime Zones E and W are daytime transit only between sunrise and sunset (boats may sail through the zone but must not stop). Anyone who ignores these restrictions is liable to be prosecuted.

Volcanic Activity Report: Graham Ryan, MVO Director