Dale Destin, Meteorologist/Climatologist for the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service Climate Section said a trough system is poised to cause wet weather across the northeast Caribbean, including Montserrat on Friday/Saturday.
He explained that several of the more reliable weather models are forecasting the potential (10 percent chance) for rainfall totals exceeding 25 mm (over 1 inch) to fall over the period Friday to Sunday of this weekend.
Destin further went on to say that the potential total for over 25 mm in 72 hours is not in and of itself a high figure. He added that whereas all models consulted are forecasting rainfall for the weekend, the forecast totals differ, as can be expected. At the lower end of the potential rainfall scale some are projecting a 10 percent chance of over 25 mm (over an inch), while others are suggesting potentially higher totals, a 10 percent chance of over 75 mm (3 in) for the weekend.
The Meteorologist stated that GFS 24hr precipitation total exceedance forecast probabilities showing all areas with at least a 10 percent chance of getting over 50 mm (2 in) of rainfall from 2 am Saturday, 30 April to 2 am Sunday, 1 May 2022.
Destin said if the models prove right, and the upper end of the rainfall potential materialises, some places across the northeast Caribbean which includes Montserrat, could see the average total for April falling in one weekend, if not one day.
The possible rainfall total for the area is 25 to 100 mm (1 to 4 in). With this kind of rainfall possible, depending on the intensity and duration, flash flooding and associated impacts are of concern.
Deterministic rainfall accumulation forecast by the GFS model from Thursday, 28 April to Sunday, 1 May 2022Destin stated that the system has already caused wet weather across the southern Caribbean with some areas receiving over 75 mm (3 in). The trough also prompted flash flood warnings for some islands.
The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA is urging residents, visitors and the vulnerable on Montserrat to be vigilant and exercise caution as flash floods, landslides and rockfalls can occur with little or no warning, due to prolonged rain, rain showers in higher elevations and soil saturation.
Source: Dale Destin, Meteorologist/Climatologist for the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service Climate Section.