In its 11 am Tropical Storm Arthur (Potential Tropical Cyclone ) Alert Statement today for Montserrat and the British Virgin Islands, the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services said that a Tropical Storm Watch may be required across Montserrat and the British Virgin Islands later today.

The Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service is closely monitoring the progress of tropical depression 13, this system is expected to strengthen and has the potential to become a tropical storm and impact the islands. Given the normal uncertainty in the forecast track intensity and size of the tropical cyclone it is still not certain what exact tropical cyclone hazard values, if any are expected to occur across the area. Notwithstanding, the depression could be in the vicinity by late Friday or Saturday, as a tropical storm. Therefore, it poses a threat to the with the potential to cause significant impacts from storm force winds, high seas, minor storm surges and minor flooding. Residents should monitor the progress of this system and start to implement their disaster plans.

At 11 am, the centre of tropical depression 13 was located near latitude 15.4 north, longitude 50.9 west or about 678 miles east-southeast of Montserrat and 847 miles east-southeast of the British virgin islands. This system is moving west-northwest at around 21 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 miles per hour with higher gusts and a minimum central pressure of 1008 mb. Gradual strengthening is forecast and the depression is expected to become Tropical Storm Laura today. On its present forecast track, the system will most likely pass near to or north of the leeward islands and this should result in more dangerous winds staying away from the island. However, any shift in the track to the south could bring the system dangerously close to the area late Friday. To be safe plans and preparations should be for the reasonable worst-case scenario of the depression impacting area. The system has the potential to cause limited damage, possible power outage and disruption to travel, a watch may become necessary later today. Residents should monitor this system closely and have their storm plans prepared. The next update will be at 5 pm

Forecaster Patrice Edwards