THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHICH INCLUDES MONTSERRAT AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES IS CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL97, WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 48 HOURS AND IMPACT PARTS OF THE CARIBBEAN.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK, INTENSITY AND SIZE OF THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE, IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT WHAT EXACT TROPICAL-CYCLONE-HAZARD VALUES, IF ANY, ARE EXPECTED OR LIKELY TO OCCUR THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. NOTWITHSTANDING, THE DISTURBANCE COULD BE IN THE AREA FRIDAY/SATURDAY, AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, THE DISTURBANCE POSES LITTLE TO NO THREAT TO THE LEEWARD AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THUS, NO IMMEDIATE PREPARATIONS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. NOTWITHSTANDING, HAVE YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLANS PREPARED AND MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.

AT 8 AM, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL97, WAS LOCATED ABOUT 1620 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 20 MPH.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE AROUND 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND THE DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN A COUPLE DAYS.

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY PASS THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS; HOWEVER, ANY PERSISTENT WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK COULD BRING IT DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA AND THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AND A LOT OF TIME FOR UNEXPECTED CHANGES TO TAKE PLACE.

PLEASE NOTE THAT NO ALERTS, WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM CLOSELY AND HAVE THEIR HURRICANE PLANS PREPARED, IN THE EVENT THE SYSTEM TAKES AN UNEXPECTED PATH AND COME TOWARD THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.AN UPDATE WILL BE GIVEN AROUND 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON OR SOONER IF NEEDED.

FORECASTER DALE DESTIN

Photo Credits: TTWeatherCenter