THAT’S ACCORDING TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES TODAY….
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AND AFFECT THE AREA…
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MONTSERRAT. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN 48 HOURS. A WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL IS NOW POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN. THERE ARE STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES; HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AS IT NEARS THE ISLANDS.
AT THE REASONABLE WORST-CASE, THE SYSTEM POSES A MODERATE THREAT, WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM STORM-FORCE-WINDS, HIGH SEAS AND MODERATE FLOODING, RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING CONDITIONS, DISRUPTIONS TO DAILY LIFE AND DAMAGE TO INFRASTRUCTURE. TO BE SAFE, START TO IMPLEMENT YOUR HURRICANE SEASON DISASTER PLANS FOR A STRONG TROPICAL STORM.
AT 11 AM, THE CENTRE OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 49.3 WEST OR ABOUT 846 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE MONTSERRAT MOVING WEST AT 21 MPHMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT AND TROPICAL STORM BY SATURDAY.
FORMATION CHANCE TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS 80 PERCENT OR HIGH, THROUGH 48 HOURS.ON ITS TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY AFFECT MONTSERRAT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
AT THIS TIME, IT IS MOST LIKELY THAT WILL BE A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT REACHES THE ISLANDS; HOWEVER, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO IMPACT THE AREA AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM.
NOTWITHSTANDING, THERE IS STILL ENOUGH TIME FOR IT TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND SPARE THE ISLANDS THE WORST OF ITS WEATHER.
RESIDENTS SHOULD START TO IMPLEMENT THEIR HURRICANE SEASON PLANS FOR POTENTIALLY A STRONG TROPICAL STORM TO SAFEGUARD LIFE, PROPERTY AND LIVELIHOOD, IN THE EVENT A WARNING IS ISSUED, BY EARLY TOMORROW.
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON OR SOONER, IF REQUIRED.
FORECASTER JALEEL JACOBS/LORNE SALMON