THAT’S ACCORDING TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES TODAY, SUNDAY, 28 AUGUST 2022.

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS ENTERED THE MONITORED AREA.
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A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS THAT, IN THIS CASE, A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS IN OUR MONITORED AREA OF CONCERN, BUT A WATCH OR WARNING IS NOT REQUIRED, AT THIS TIME.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE FULL IMPACTS OF THE SYSTEM, IF ANY, WITH HIGH CERTAINTY, AT THIS TIME. AL91 IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. THEREFORE, IT POSES AN ELEVATED THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE LIMITED IMPACTS FROM STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS, RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING CONDITIONS AND MINOR DISRUPTIONS TO DAILY LIFE. TO BE SAFE, BE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN.

AT 11 AM, THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL91 WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 44.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1190 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OR ABOUT 1390 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AL91 IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 10 MPH. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST FOR AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER THIS WEEK.

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, AL91 WILL POSSIBLY BE NEAR THE ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND, AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL CYCLONE; THERE IS A REASONABLE WORST-CASE SCENARIO OF THE CYCLONE BEING A TROPICAL STORM.

NOTWITHSTANDING, IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY, WITH HIGH CERTAINTY, THE EVENTUAL PATH OF THE SYSTEM AND HENCE, THE IMPACTS, IF ANY.

NOTE THAT THERE ARE NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT, AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT AROUND 8 PM OR SOONER IF NEEDED.

FORECASTER DALE DESTIN/CECIL MATTHEW