ACCORDING TO A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (AL91) ALERT STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AT 8:18 PM FRIDAY, SEP 2, 2022, A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONTSERRAT.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS THAT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL91 IS IN OUR MONITORED AREA OF CONCERN BUT A WATCH OR WARNING IS NOT REQUIRED, AT THIS TIME.

AT 8 PM, THE DISTURBANCE (AL91) WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND 475 MILES EAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED AND SURFACE PRESSURE HAS FALLEN A BIT BASED ON HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA, THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY STILL POSES A LOW THREAT TO MONTSERRAT; HENCE APART FROM CONTINUED MONITORING, NO OTHER ACTIONS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

AL91 CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK, THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARDS WHICH INCLUDE MONTSERRAT ON SATURDAY; HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR IT WILL PASS FROM THE ISLANDS GIVEN THAT A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAS NOT YET FORMED.

BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATION AND ANALYSIS, SIGNIFICANT WIND IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED; HOWEVER, IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE EVENING, THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHICH INCLUDE MONTSERRAT MAINLY ON SATURDAY. IN ADDITION, SWELLS FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS FOR BEACH-GOERS DURING THE WEEKEND.

RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM UNTIL IT CLEARS THE AREA.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT AROUND 8 AM OR SOONER SHOULD IT BECOME NECESSARY.

FORECASTER BERNELL SIMON

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA will continue to monitor Tropical Disturbance AL91 and provide regular updates.