Meteorologist/Climatologist for the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service Climate Section, Dale Destin, has forecast an active or above-normal 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season with a high chance of being well above normal or a super hyperactive one.

Mr Destin’s early prediction calls for a near record-breaking 27 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 7 major hurricanes and an accumulated cyclone energy index (ACE) of 233.

The primary factors driving Destin’s above-normal season forecast are the expectation of persistently warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the tropical North Atlantic (TNA), coupled with anticipated cooler-than-normal SSTs across the eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean or La Niña. The simultaneous occurrence of these phenomena, during the hurricane season, sets the stage for what could be near-perfect conditions for a super hyperactive season.

Notwithstanding, there are uncertainties regarding the forecast; these are mainly due to the unknowable intensity and frequency of Saharan Dust that will traverse the TNA. Dust inhibits hurricane formation, but it cannot be forecast beyond days; hence, it is not factored into the hurricane season forecast.