In its Tropical Cyclone Information Statement issued at 2:30 p.m. on Friday, August 22, 2025, the Met Service notes that Tropical Disturbance AL99 has the potential to become a tropical cyclone and affect Montserrat cannot be ruled out.

It states that there are lots of uncertainties associated with the development of the disturbance, as environmental conditions along the forecast path vary from conducive to non-conducive for tropical cyclone formation. No hazards are forecast to reach Montserrat from this system. However, residents should monitor the progress of AL99. To be safe, be prepared for the rest of the hurricane season.

At 2:00 p.m., AL99 was located about 1,400 miles east-southeast of Antigua and Barbuda and the Leeward Islands, moving west at approximately 13 mph. ASCAT data indicate maximum sustained winds near 30 mph, with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend.

Formation chances:
Through 48 hours: Low (30%)
Through 7 days: Medium (40%)

There are no tropical cyclone alerts, watches or warnings in effect for Montserrat at this time.

The next statement will be issued by 2:00 p.m. tomorrow, or earlier if necessary.

Forecaster: Dale Destin