The Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service says Tropical Disturbance AL99, which is approaching the Caribbean, has less than a 50 percent chance of affecting Montserrat as a tropical cyclone.

In its Tropical Cyclone Information Statement issued today, Sunday, 24 August 2025, at 10:00 a.m., the Met Service states that, regardless of development, showers and thunderstorms are possible, along with strong, gusty winds across portions of the southern Leeward Islands, including Montserrat, this evening and Monday.

It adds that the greatest threat from this disturbance is lightning, and advises residents to be prepared for some disruptions from this hazard.

Mariners should also be aware of potentially hazardous seas, although the overall wind risk remains very low.

There are no tropical cyclone alerts, watches, or warnings in effect for Montserrat, and none are likely to be required.

Residents and visitors on Montserrat should continue to monitor the progress of AL99 and remain prepared for the rest of the hurricane season.

At 10:00 a.m., Tropical Disturbance AL99 was centered about 665 miles southeast of Antigua and Barbuda and the Leeward Islands, moving quickly west at about 23 mph.

Based on ASCAT data, maximum sustained winds are around 35 mph with higher gusts. This system could still develop into a tropical depression during the next day or two. Formation chance through 48 hours is medium at 40 percent, and formation chance over seven days is also medium at 40 percent.

The next update will be around 2:00 p.m. tomorrow, or sooner if required.

— Forecaster Dale Destin