Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service
10:40 a.m. Friday, September 5, 2025

…Tropical cyclone expected to form – Residents and visitors should monitor closely…

The Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service continues to closely monitor the progress of Tropical Disturbance AL91, located over the central tropical North Atlantic Ocean. The system is expected to become a tropical depression or storm early next week as it moves in the general direction of the Caribbean.

At this stage, it is still unclear when AL91 will form or whether it will impact the region. The system currently appears weaker in satellite imagery compared to yesterday, and some reliable models have reduced its potential for formation. However, environmental conditions remain generally favourable for further development. The risk of hazards from this disturbance is low at this time.

Residents of Montserrat should remain vigilant for potential hazardous weather and continue monitoring the progress of this system. To be safe, residents are reminded to stay prepared for the remainder of the hurricane season.

At 8 a.m., Tropical Disturbance AL91 was centred about 1,743 miles east-southeast of Antigua and Barbuda and the Leeward Islands, moving west at around 9 mph.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 25 mph with higher gusts. Formation chance through 48 hours is medium (60%), and formation chance over seven days is high (90%). This means development in the next 48 hours is more likely than not, and development over the next week is expected.

Please note that there are no tropical cyclone alerts, watches, or warnings in effect for the area at this time; however, an alert will likely be required within the next 24 hours.

The next update will be issued around 2 p.m. tomorrow, or sooner if required.

Forecaster: Dale Destin