TODAY’S LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST FOR MONTSERRAT VALID UP TO 8 AM SATURDAY APRIL 14TH, 2018

SYNOPSIS: Moisture and instability trailing behind a surface to low level trough that moved over the area last night will continue to result in weak unstable weather conditions across the islands today. However, later tonight another trough will move into the area once again giving rise to similar weather conditions where cloudy spells and showers can therefore be expected.

WEATHER TODAY: Partly sunny with a 60 percent or moderate chance of showers.

WEATHER TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to cloudy with widespread showers mainly after midnight.

WINDS: East-southeast to east-northeast with speeds ranging between 19 to 33 km/h or 10 to 18 knots.

SEAS: Moderate with possible wave heights up to 0.2 meters/ 4 feet on the western side of the Islands and 2.1 meters or 7 feet on the eastern side.

SUNSET TODAY: 6:25 pm. SUNRISE TOMORROW: 5:55 am.

Please continue to monitor ZJB Radio, DMCA’s website at www.dmca.gov.ms and Facebook at Montserrat Disaster Management Coordination Agency-DMCA for regular updates. Continue reading

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PUBLIC INFORMATION RADIO PROGRAM: FEEDBACK ON 2018 HURRICANE CONFERENCE IN FLORIDA

Predictions for the upcoming 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season, Lessons learned from the destructive and deadly 2017 hurricane season and the used of drones in disaster response and relief operations were some of the major highlights from the just concluded National Hurricane Conference held in Orlando, Florida in the United States of America.

At the conference, Montserrat was represented by Operations and Logistics Officer Kelvin White and Senior Disaster Management Coordinator Astrid Wade both at the Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA.

In today’s edition of the programme “Prepare and Prevent”, we’ll bring to you feedback from Mr Wade on Montserrat’s participation in the March 26th – March 29th, 2018 Hurricane Conference held under the theme “Improving Hurricane Preparedness”.

Click below to hear the full interview…

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TODAY’S LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST FOR MONTSERRAT VALID UP TO 8 AM THURSDAY APRIL 12TH, 2018

SYNOPSIS: A moderate to fresh trade wind flow generated by a strong high pressure ridge will continue to produce rough seas as well as transport pockets of low level moisture over and around the islands today and tonight.

WEATHER TODAY: Partly sunny skies with a 40 percent or moderate chance for brief passing showers.

WEATHER TONIGHT: Fair to partly cloudy skies with a 30 percent or low chance of showers.

WINDS: E at 22-37km/h or 12-20kts.

SEAS: Moderate to rough, swells 1.8-2.8m or 6-9ft. A small craft advisory remains in effect.

SUNSET TODAY: 6:24 pm. SUNRISE TOMORROW: 5:56 am.

Please continue to monitor ZJB Radio, DMCA’s website at www.dmca.gov.ms and Facebook at Montserrat Disaster Management Coordination Agency-DMCA for regular updates. Continue reading

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EARLY FORECASTS FOR THE 2018 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON

A typical season has 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Major hurricanes have sustained wind speeds of at least 178 km/h or 111 miles per hour (e.g., Category 3 or higher), based on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was one of the most destructive for the Caribbean; several islands were almost totalled. Barbuda, one half of the twin island state of Antigua and Barbuda was left uninhabitable for a while. Ten of last year’s 17 named storms reached hurricane strength—meaning they had sustained winds of at least 119 km/h or 74 miles per hour—and six of the 10 hurricanes were major ones.

If this forecast pans out, 2018 would be the second most active since 2010; second to last year’s season.

The Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1 and concludes on November 30.

We will be updating our 2018 forecast by June 10.

According to other forecasts surveyed, the consensus is for an ACE of 105, 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. Thus, our forecast is generally calling for higher activity than most; however, regardless of the forecast, you should always prepare well each season, as it only takes one hurricane to ruin your year.

Please continue to monitor ZJB Radio, DMCA’s website at www.dmca.gov.ms and Facebook at Montserrat Disaster Management Coordination Agency-DMCA for regular updates.  Continue reading

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TODAY’S LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST FOR MONTSERRAT VALID UP TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY APRIL 11TH, 2018

SYNOPSIS: A moderate to fresh wind flow will transport pockets of low level moisture and cloud patches across the area, triggering a few passing showers.

WEATHER TODAY: Partly cloudy with a moderate or 40 percent chance of showers.

WEATHER TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with a moderate or 50 percent chance of showers.

WINDS: East-southeast at 19 to 28 km/h or 10 to 15kts.

SEAS: Moderate with wave heights of 1.2 to 1.8 m or 4 to 6 ft. Small craft operators and sea bathers should exercise caution, particularly on the eastern coastal areas.

SUNSET TODAY: 6:24 pm. SUNRISE TOMORROW: 5:57 am.

Please continue to monitor ZJB Radio, DMCA’s website at www.dmca.gov.ms and Facebook at Montserrat Disaster Management Coordination Agency-DMCA for regular updates. Continue reading

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MONTSERRAT VOLCANO OBSERVATORY (MVO) WEEKLY REPORT FOR THE PERIOD MARCH 30TH TO APRIL 6TH, 2018

Activity at the Soufrière Hills Volcano remains low.

The seismic network recorded two volcano-tectonic earthquakes this week.

Measurements of the SO2 flux were made from the helicopter on 4 April. Eight traverses were carried out, with an average flux of 513 tonnes per day.

Pyroclastic flows can occur at any time without warning on any side of the volcano, including Gages from where they can travel rapidly into Plymouth. Tracks across the Belham Valley can be destroyed or heavily modified by flash flooding or lahars, and caution should be exercised crossing the valley during and after rainfall.

The Hazard Level is 1. There is no public access to Zone V, including Plymouth. Maritime Zones E and W are daytime transit only between sunrise and sunset (boats may sail through the zone but must not stop). Anyone who ignores these restrictions is liable to be prosecuted.

Please continue to monitor ZJB Radio, DMCA’s website at www.dmca.gov.ms and Facebook at Montserrat Disaster Management Coordination Agency-DMCA for regular updates.  Continue reading

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TODAY’S LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST FOR MONTSERRAT VALID UP TO 8 AM TUESDAY APRIL 10TH, 2018

SYNOPSIS: A moderate to fresh trade wind flow generated by a relatively strong high pressure ridge will continue to transport shallow pockets of low level moisture across the islands at times, thus maintaining a moderate chance for showers over and around the islands.

WEATHER TODAY: Partly sunny skies with a 40 percent or moderate chance of brief passing showers.

WEATHER TONIGHT: Fair to partly cloudy skies with a 50 percent or moderate chance for more quick passing showers.

WINDS: ENE at 22-33km/h or 12-18kts..

SEAS: Moderate to locally rough, swells 1.5-2.1m or 5-7ft. Small craft operators and sea bathers are asked to exercise caution when venturing out to sea.

SUNSET TODAY: 6:24 pm. SUNRISE TOMORROW: 5:58 am.

Please continue to monitor ZJB Radio, DMCA’s website at www.dmca.gov.ms and Facebook at Montserrat Disaster Management Coordination Agency-DMCA for regular updates.  Continue reading

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HERE’S THE LOCAL MARINE WEATHER FOR MONTSERRAT FROM MONDAY APRIL 9TH, 2018 TO MONDAY APRIL 16TH, 2O18

Monday April 9th,, 2018.. 6AM. 6PM.
Seas.. are 3 to 4 ‘ 3 to 4 feet high.
Winds.. are Easterly @ 12. E 12 MPH.
Skies .. are Partly Cloudy, with some light overnight drizzle possible.

Tuesday April 10th, 2018… 6 AM 6PM
Seas.. are 4 to 5 ‘ 4 to 6 feet high.
Winds.. are Easterly @ 16. E 16 MPH.
Skies .. are Partly Cloudy, with some light AM. drizzle possible.

Wednesday April 11th, 2018 6AM 6PM
Seas.. are 6 to 7 ‘ 6 to 7 feet high.
Winds.. are Easterly @ 16. E 16 MPH.
Skies .. are Partly Cloudy.

Thursday April 12th, 2018 6AM 6PM
Seas.. are 6 to 7 ‘ 6 to 7 feet high.
Winds.. are Easterly @ 16. E 16 MPH.
Skies .. are SUNNY ALL DAY.

Friday April 13th, 2018 6AM 6PM
Seas.. are 6 to 8 ‘ 6 to 9 feet high.
Winds.. are Easterly @ 16. E 16 MPH.
Skies .. are Partly Sunny with possible light early AM. Rain..

Saturday April 14th, 2018 6AM 6PM
Seas.. are 6 to 9 ‘ 6 to 8 feet high.
Winds.. are Easterly @ 16. E 16 MPH.
Skies .. are Partly Cloudy..

Sunday April 15th, 2018 6AM 6PM
Seas.. are 6 to 7 ‘ 6 feet high.
Winds.. are Easterly @ 16. E 16 to 20 MPH.
Skies .. are Partly Cloudy, with early AM. Rain showers..

Monday April 16th, 2018 6AM 6PM
Seas.. are 6 ‘ 5 to 6 feet high.
Winds.. are Easterly @ 16. E 16 MPH.
Skies .. are SUNNY ALL DAY..

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THE DISASTER MANAGEMENT COORDINATION AGENCY (DMCA) PARTICIPATED IN THE 2018 NATIONAL HURRICANE CONFERENCE IN ORLANDO, FLORIDA

Operations and Logistics Officer Kelvin White and Senior Disaster Management Coordinator Astrid Wade of the Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA attended the March 26th to 29th hurricane conference.

The conference was held under the theme “Improving Hurricane Preparedness”.

The National Hurricane Conference attended by 1,500 people which included emergency managers, forecasters and meteorologists, provided a forum for education and professional training in hurricane and disaster preparedness. Continue reading

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SLIGHTLY ABOVE-AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON PREDICTED

Hurricane season 2018 officially begins on June 1, but we’re already getting a look at one forecast that calls for slightly above-average activity.

Hurricane researcher Philip Klotzbach and the team at Colorado State University released their first forecast Thursday ahead of the start of hurricane season.

The Atlantic hurricane season will be slightly above-average this year, Colorado State University (CSU) hurricane researchers predicted Thursday.

The researchers cited a “relatively low likelihood of significant El Niño” conditions as a main factor. In total, the team believes there will be 14 named storms.

Hurricane researchers predict seven of the storms will become hurricanes and three will reach “major hurricane strength with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.”

They explained why El Niño patterns are likely to make a difference.

“El Niño tends to increase upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic, tearing apart hurricanes as they try to form,” the researchers said.

CSU hurricane researchers believe this season’s activity will be about 135 percent of the average season. For reference, last year’s hurricane activity — which included one major storm after another — was nearly two and a half times greater than average.

The team forms their forecasts by using 60 years of data, referencing sea surface temperatures, vertical wind shear levels, sea level pressures, El Niño conditions and other factors. They plan to provide updates on May 31, July 2 and Aug. 2.

The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
While the CSU team said their predictions provide “a best estimate” of what to expect, they’re not foolproof, and coastal residents should be sure and take precautions to protect themselves.

“It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season,” said Michael Bell, an associate professor in the Department of Atmospheric Science, who worked on the report.

2018 Atlantic tropical storm names
Starting in 1953, the National Hurricane Center originally named all tropical storms. While you can still find a list storm names on their website, the names are now maintained and updated by the World Meteorological Organization.

Each list of names is used in a six-year rotation. That means this year’s list will be used again in 2024. However, if a storm is considered too deadly or damage caused by a storm deemed too costly, the name is no longer be used for reasons of sensitivity. In those cases, a name is replaced during an annual World Meteorological Organization meeting. Continue reading

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