His latest forecast calls for 20 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 221. These numbers are higher than average and suggest a potentially intense season.

The primary factors driving this prediction are unusually warm sea surface temperatures across the tropical North Atlantic and cooler-than-normal temperatures in the eastern Equatorial Pacific, conditions often associated with La Niña. These factors typically enhance hurricane development and intensity.

However, Destin also notes that there are uncertainties, particularly regarding the impact of Saharan dust. This dust can suppress hurricane formation, but its intensity and timing are difficult to predict beyond a few days, adding a layer of uncertainty to the overall forecast.

As we move into the peak of the hurricane season (August to October), the situation will require close monitoring.

Disturbance AL98 is expected to become a Tropical Depression by early Monday morning and then develop into Tropical Storm Ernesto.

According to the Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CARICOF), cooling temperatures in the equatorial Pacific will likely result in a progressive transition to La Niña while (near-)record warm Tropical North Atlantic Ocean is set to continue.

Therefore, an intense peak of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season and the Caribbean Wet Season and Heat Season, implying frequent and intense (i) episodes of oppressive humid heat; and (ii) tropical cyclones and severe weather, resulting in high potential for flooding, flash floods, cascading hazards and associated impacts.

It states that should the intrusion of dry Saharan air (which usually peaks through early August) be more frequent than usual, storm and shower activity may be more erratic, though intense, in between episodes, while heat will remain in record territory.

The August wet season often includes a mid-summer dry spell, while the September to October 2024 Wet Season is usually frequent heavy showers.

The Caribbean Climate Outlooks are prepared by the Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF). The Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), in its role, as WMO Regional Climate Centre, coordinates the CariCOF process.

It states that the disturbance, which could become AL97, is not expected to become a tropical Storm or hurricane before reaching the northeast Caribbean. Hence, the system poses little to no threat to Montserrat. The risk of wind, rainfall or seas is very low or low, so no action is required.