Yellow Hill – Thursday, 15 September 2022 – The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA joins the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services in urging residents to continue to monitor Tropical Storm Fiona closely, check their Emergency Preparedness Kit and implement their Hurricane Disaster Plans in preparation for hazardous weather.

At 8 PM, The National Hurricane says that the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 56.1 West. Fiona is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday night, with a turn toward the west-northwest possible on Sunday. On
the forecast track, the center of Fiona is expected to move across the Leeward Islands Friday night and early Saturday, and move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late Saturday into Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA is urging residents and visitors to continue to monitor the DMCA and be prepared.

THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES IS URGING RESIDENTS TO MONITOR TROPICAL STORM FIONA CLOSELY, CHECK THEIR DISASTER SUPPLY KIT AND IMPLEMENT THEIR HURRICANE DISASTER PLANS IN PREPARATION FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONTSERRAT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FIONA IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE ISLAND LATE FRIDAY EVENING AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. THEREFORE, IT POSES AN MEDIUM THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM STRONG STORM-FORCE WINDS, HIGH SEAS AND MODERATE FLOODING, RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING CONDITIONS AND DISRUPTIONS TO DAILY LIFE. TO BE SAFE, IMPLEMENT YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN.

AT 5 PM, THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 55.4 WEST OR ABOUT 451 MILES EAST OF MONTSERRAT. THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 14 MPH.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO START LATE FRIDAY EVENING BUT COULD START AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE STORM-FORCE WINDS START, THEY SHOULD NOT LAST FOR MORE THAN 8 HOURS. THERE IS A REASONABLE WORST CASE OF FIONA IMPACTING THE ISLANDS AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM WITH WINDS OF 60 TO 73 MPH WITH HURRICANE-FORCE GUSTS, FOR WHICH PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE. ON THE OTHER HAND, AT THE REASONABLE BEST CASE, THE MODERATE WIND SHEAR WEAKENS OR PREVENT FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM. POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THE SYSTEM INCLUDE CLOSURE OF THE COUNTRY, WEAKLY CONSTRUCTED HOUSES SUFFERING BLOWN ROOFS OR HOUSE COLLAPSE, LOCALIZED LOSS OF COMMUNICATION AND ELECTRICITY SUPPLY DUE TO DAMAGED POWER LINES, LOSS OF CROPS AND LIVESTOCK AND FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC LOSSES. A MARINE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED AND A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED THIS EVENING FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT AROUND 12 AM TONIGHT.

FORECASTER DALE DESTIN

Yellow Hill – Thursday, 15 September 2022 – A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

At 5 PM, the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 55.4 West. Fiona is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday night, with a turn toward the west-northwest possible on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona is expected to move across the Leeward Islands Friday night and early Saturday, and move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late Saturday into Sunday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) mainly to the north of the center.

The minimum central pressure based on data from the reconnaissance aircraft is 1006 MB (29.71 inches).

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA is urging residents and visitors to continue to monitor the DMCA and be prepared.

THAT’S ACCORDING TO A STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES THIS AFTERNOON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE SPECIFIED AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.AT 1100 AM, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 54.3 WEST 454 MILES EAST OF MONTSERRAT.

FIONA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H). A WESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARDING SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY, WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF FIONA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY, AND MOVE NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM) MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).

THE LATEST OBSERVATION AND ANALYSIS SHOW THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE IMPACTS THAT COULD AFFECT THE AREA INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING:

WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS COULD CAUSE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FROM FLYING DEBRIS AND DAMAGE TO SOME INFRASTRUCTURES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AND FLOOD-PRONE AREAS AND MUDSLIDES IN SOME AREAS. RESIDENTS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUNDS AGAINST FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AREAS AND MUDSLIDES.

SEAS OF 4 TO 10 FEET COULD PRODUCE LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES WHICH COULD PRODUCE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR BEACH-GOERS.

MARINERS SHOULD STAY IN PORT AND SEEK SAFE ANCHORAGE WHILE BEACHGOERS ARE ADVISED TO AVOID THE WATERS.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

At 1100 AM, the National Hurricane Center states that the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 54.3 West. Fiona is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected to continue through late Saturday, with a turn toward the west-northwest possible on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona is expected to move across the Leeward Islands Friday night and early Saturday, and move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late Saturday into Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA is urging residents and visitors to continue to monitor the DMCA and be prepared.

Source: NHC

ALL RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE MOVEMENT OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA CLOSELY AND TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

ACCORDING TO A STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES TODAY THURSDAY, 15 SEPTEMBER, 2022, A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSE A POSSIBLE THREAT TO THE AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

AT 5 AM, THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 53.0 WEST OR ABOUT 529 MILES EAST OF MONTSERRAT.

FIONA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 13 MILES PER HOUR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTRE OF FIONA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, AND BE NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND.

SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND UP TO 140 MILES EAST OF THE CENTRE.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB OR 29.59 INCHES.

BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATION AND ANALYSIS, TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS BY FRIDAY.

THERE ARE STILL UNCERTAINTIES AS TO THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF FIONA WHEN IT APPROACHES THE AREA ON FRIDAY, GIVEN THAT ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

ALSO, SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3-5 INCHES ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE PASSAGE OF FIONA, WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 INCHES IN SOME PLACES. WITH THIS TYPE OF RAINFALL, RESIDENTS IN LOW-LYING AND FLOOD-PRONE AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUNDS AS MODERATE FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE. RESIDENTS NEAR SLOPES SHOULD PREPARE TO GUARD AGAINST MUDSLIDES.

MARINERS SHOULD STAY IN PORT AND SEEK SAFE ANCHORAGE. SEAS WILL START TO DETERIORATE SIGNIFICANTLY BY FRIDAY AND WILL PEAK NEAR 10 FEET OR GREATER DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM.

ALL RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE MOVEMENT OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA CLOSELY AND TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY WILL BE AT 11 AM ECT.

FORECASTER JALEEL JACOBS

Yellow Hill – Thursday, 15 September 2022 – The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA continues to closely monitor Tropical Storm Fiona, and will provide regular updates via ZJB Radio and Social Media Platforms.

Residents are urged to monitor Tropical Storm Fiona closely, activate their emergency plans now, assess their risks for flooding and leaking, and remove all loose objects from outdoors, especially construction sites.

At 500 AM, the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 53.0 West. Fiona is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona is forecast to move through the Leeward Islands late Friday and Friday night, and move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the northern Leeward Islands by Friday night, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.

RAINFALL: Fiona is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts across the northern Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola. These rains may produce flash and urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are expected to begin affecting the northern Leeward Islands by early Friday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA is encouraging residents and visitors to continue to monitor the DMCA and be prepared.

ACCORDING TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES THIS EVENING, A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS THAT, IN THIS CASE, A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS IN OUR MONITORED AREA OF CONCERN.

BASED ON THE LATEST INFORMATION AND ANALYSIS, THERE IS AN INCREASING THREAT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IMPACTS AFFECTING THE LEEWARDS WHICH INCLUDE MONTSERRAT DURING THE WEEKEND; HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY OF THE MAGNITUDE OF THE IMPACTS AT THIS TIME; HENCE, RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AT 500 PM, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 50.5 WEST OR 750 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARDS AND 935 MILES EAST &8211; SOUTHEAST OF THE BVI.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB (29.77 INCHES).

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND, AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM BRINGING POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL AND ROUGH SEAS.

CURRENTLY, THERE ARE NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME; BUT WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW; HENCE, RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT AROUND 11 PM OR SOONER IF NEEDED.

FORECASTER BERNELL SIMON/LENARD JOSIAH

2022 Hurricane Preparedness Guide – English

AND, A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR MONTSERRAT!

ACCORDING TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AT 11:30 AM WEDNESDAY, 14 SEPTEMBER 2022, A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS THAT, IN THIS CASE, A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS IN OUR MONITORED AREA OF CONCERN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER.

IT IS A BIT TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE FULL IMPACTS OF THE SYSTEM, IF ANY, WITH HIGH CERTAINTY. HOWEVER, TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY ON FRIDAY AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. THEREFORE, IT POSES AN ELEVATED THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE LIMITED IMPACTS FROM STORM-FORCE WINDS, HIGH SEAS AND MINOR FLOODING, RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING CONDITIONS AND MINOR DISRUPTIONS TO DAILY LIFE. TO BE SAFE, BE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN.

AT 11 AM, THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 49.6 WEST OR ABOUT 800 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OR ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 14 MPH.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND, AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. THERE IS A REASONABLE WORST-CASE SCENARIO OF THE ISLANDS BEING AFFECTED BY STORM-FORCE WINDS, HIGH SEAS AND MINOR FLOODING FROM POSSIBLE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES. NOTWITHSTANDING, IT IS A BIT EARLY TO SAY, WITH HIGH CERTAINTY, THE EVENTUAL PATH, SIZE AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AND HENCE, THE SPECIFIC IMPACTS, IF ANY. A FEW MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM PASSING NORTH SIMILAR TO EARL.

NOTE THAT THERE ARE NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER.

RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT THEIR HURRICANE PLANS IF CALLED UPON TO DO SO. THE THREAT IS MINOR, AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT AROUND 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON OR SOONER IF NEEDED.

FORECASTER DALE DESTIN