Tuesday, August 18th, 2020 – 10:40 am – Tropical cyclone expected to form and threaten the northeast Caribbean…
The Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services is closely following the progress of tropical disturbance AL98 located over the central tropical North Atlantic. It is expected to become a tropical storm and has the potential to impact the leeward islands and the British virgin islands this weekend.
Given the normal uncertainty in the forecast track, intensity and size of the eventual tropical cyclone, which will develop from AL98, it is impossible to predict what exact tropical-cyclone-hazard values, if any, are expected to occur, this far in advance. Notwithstanding, the disturbance could be in the vicinity around Friday/Saturday, as a tropical storm or hurricane. The threat level is little to none, at this time, but is expected to rise to, at least, elevated levels later today; hence, a tropical cyclone alert will be required then. To be safe, have your hurricane disaster plans prepared and monitor this system closely.
At 10 am, tropical disturbance AL98 was located near latitude 12.0 north and longitude 36.5 west or about 1720 miles east-southeast of the leeward islands, moving west to west-northwest at around 18 mph.
Maximum sustained winds are less than 35 mph. Strengthening is forecast, and there is a high chance of a tropical depression or tropical storm forming in 48 hours.
Al98 could impact the northeast Caribbean, as a storm or hurricane; however, it could also follow a similar path to Josephine and spare the islands any harm. It is very early days and any number of things could happen. Prepared for the reasonable worst-case scenario and hope for the best.
No alerts, watches or warnings are in effect, at this time, but an alert will be required later today.
Residents should monitor this developing system closely and have their hurricane plans prepared, as the system could become a serious threat and cause damage this weekend.
An update will be given around 8 pm tonight or sooner if needed.
Forecaster Dale Destin

THAT’S ACCORDING TO A TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE ALERT STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AT 5:30 PM FRIDAY, AUGUST 14, 2020 FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

…HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS CENTER OF JOSEPHINE A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH…

AT 5 PM, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 56.1 WEST OR ABOUT 460 E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND 560 MILES E OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. JOSEPHINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH (26 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF JOSEPHINE IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. AFTER THAT, JOSEPHINE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT ENCOUNTERS UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM) MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).

BASED UPON THE LATEST POSITION AND ANALYSES, TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE SHOULD PASS AT A SAFE DISTANCE FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH THE PASSAGE OF JOSEPHINE AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL TOTAL IS 15 TO 25 MM OR 0.5 TO 1 INCH. SWELLS OF 6 TO 8 FEET ARE POSSIBLE AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA, ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS UNTIL SUNDAY. RESIDENTS ARE ASKED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PASSAGE OF JOSEPHINE UNTIL IT CLEARS THE AREA.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT 11 PM

FORECASTER ORVIN PAIGE

THAT’S ACCORDING TO THE 11 AM TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE ALERT STATEMENT ISSUED BY ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

11:00 AM, FRI, AUG 14, 2020 – A TROPICAL STORM ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM ALERT MEANS THAT A TROPICAL STORM IS IN OUR MONITORED AREA BUT A WATCH OR WARNING IS NOT REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

BASED ON THE PRESENT POSITION OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE, AND THE THREAT IT POSES TO THE REGION, THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM DANGEROUS WINDS, MODERATE STORM SURGE, MAJOR FLOODING AND EXTREME SEAS ARE MINIMAL.

AT 11 AM, THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 54.7 WEST OR ABOUT 475 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 660 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 MILES PER HOUR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS, AND SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB OR 29.71 INCHES.

ON ITS PRESENT TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS AT LEAST 150 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ALL RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE MOVEMENT OF JOSEPHINE CLOSELY UNTIL IT CLEARS THE AREA.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT 5 PM ECT.

FORECASTER LORNE SALMON

THE PEAK PERIOD OF THE HURRICANE SEASON IS HERE; RESIDENTS, VISITORS AND BUSINESS OWNERS ARE ASKED TO ASSESS THEIR RISK NOW, ADJUST THEIR EMERGENCY PLANS AND SUPPLIES TO FACTOR IN THE IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND BE PREPARED; IT ONLY TAKES ONE!

THE PEAK PERIOD OF THE HURRICANE SEASON IS UPON US; RESIDENTS, VISITORS AND BUSINESS OWNERS ARE ASKED TO ASSESS THEIR RISK NOW, ADJUST THEIR EMERGENCY PLANS AND SUPPLIES TO FACTOR IN THE IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND BE PREPARED.

THAT’S ACCORDING TO THE 5 AM TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE ALERT STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

5 AM FRI, AUG 14, 2020 – JOSEPHINE CONTINUES ON ITS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

AT 5 AM, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 53.3 WEST OR ABOUT 680 MILES ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

JOSEPHINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH (28 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF JOSEPHINE IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM) FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).

BASED ON CURRENT PROJECTED TRACK AND ANALYSIS, TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE IS EXPECTED TO PASS AT A SAFE DISTANCE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS, BY TOMORROW SATURDAY. HOWEVER, RESIDENTS IN THE LEEWARD AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT AND KEEP CLOSELY MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE UNTIL IT CLEARS THE AREA.

REPEATING THE 5 AM POSITION: LATITUDE .15.3N LONGITUDE 53.3W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM. PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT 11 AM ECT

FORECASTER CECIL MATTHEW

THAT’S ACCORDING TO THE 5 PM TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE ALERT STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHICH INCLUDE MONTSERRAT AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

….JOSEPHINE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH…

AT 500 PM, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 50.6 WEST OR ABOUT 865 MILES ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND APPROXIMATELY 965 MILES ESE OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. JOSEPHINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH (26 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF JOSEPHINE IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).

BASED UPON THE LATEST POSITION AND ANALYSES, TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE WNW AND WILL PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY AT A SAFE DISTANCE AWAY. SOME CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS COULD STILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NO PARTICULAR ACTION IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM UNTIL IT CLEARS THE AREA.

REPEATING THE 5 PM POSITION…14.5N 50.6W, MOVEMENT WNW, MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH, MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT 11 PM ECT

FORECASTER ORVIN PAIGE

11:03 AM, THU, AUG 13, 2020 – DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE.

AT 11 AM, THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 49.2 WEST OR ABOUT …. 871 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND 1072 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LATEST SATELLITE WIND DATA HAS INDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH WITH STRENGTHENING ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 48HRS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB OR 29.68 INCHES.

ON THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF LEEWARDS ISLANDS AND VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE DISTANCE, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS. THEREFORE, ALL RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE MOVEMENT OF JOSEPHINE, MAINLY FOR ANY SOUTHERN SHIFT IN FORECAST TRACK THAT COULD BRING THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.

FORECASTER PATRICE EDWARDS

Yellow Hill, Montserrat – August 13, 2020: At 1100 AM, the center of Tropical Storm Josephine was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 49.2 West. Josephine is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days followed by a turn toward the northwest late this weekend or early next week.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

The DMCA will continue to monitor this system and provide updates as they become available.

SOURCE: NHC NOAA

THAT’S ACCORDING TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 ALERT STATEMENT BY THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AT 5:10 AM, THU, AUG 13, 2020.

THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS…DEPRESSION IS DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME BUT STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM…

AT 5:00 AM, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 47.9 WEST OR ABOUT 971 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND 1173 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).

ON ITS PRESENT TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS IN THE LEEWARD AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 FOR ANY CHANGE IN THE FORECAST CONDITIONS AS ANY SOUTHWARDS SHIFTING OF THE PROJECTED TRACK COULD BRING THE DEPRESSION CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THE ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVENTUAL WIND IMPACTS FROM THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME UP 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST FOR THE AREA.

RESIDENTS SHOULD HAVE THEIR HURRICANE PLANS COMPLETED AND BE PREPARED TO ACT.

FORECASTER LETITIA HUMPHREYS