ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES 11:45 AM ECT MON SEP 20 2021
…TROPICAL STORM PETER IS PASSING SAFE DISTANCE AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS…
THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM PETER.
PETER POSES LITTLE TO NO THREAT TO ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA, THE REST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. ALSO, THE SYSTEM POSES NO THREAT TO THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN.
AT 11 AM, TROPICAL STORM PETER WAS CENTRED ABOUT 175 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.
PLEASE NOTE THAT NO TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERTS, WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT AND NONE WILL AGAIN BE REQUIRED FOR THIS SYSTEM.
RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM PETER UNTIL IT IS OUT OF THE AREA.
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND 11 AM TOMORROW OR SOONER, IF REQUIRED.
Monday September 20, 2021 – The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA is monitoring Tropical Disturbance 1 (red) located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic several hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. The system is showing some signs of organization and upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for further development by midweek, and a tropical depression is likely to form by Friday.
The system is moving westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean and has a 70% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in 5 days.
Residents are urged to continue to monitor the Atlantic for any changes with this Tropical Disturbance 1 over the next several days.
The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA will continue to keep an eye on Tropical Disturbances 1, and will provide regular updates as new information is released.
Synopsis: The center of Tropical Storm Peter continues at a safe distance away from the Caribbean Islands. However, the system has created a slack pressure gradient over the area causing the winds to be light. These light winds will allow for some daytime heating and with a trough forecast to move across the northern islands the chance for shower activity will be increased. In addition to this, a moisture band associated with Tropical Storm Peter is also forecast to move across this same area and will contribute to the unsettled weather conditions.
Weather today: Partly cloudy becoming cloudy at times with a 70 percent or a high chance of showers mainly this afternoon.
Winds: Generally south and sometimes variable where speeds will range from 11 to 24 km/h or 7 to 15 mph.
Seas: not exceeding 1.5 metres or 5 feet.
Sunset today: 6:07 pm.
Temperatures: nighttime highs reaching 32°C or 90°F.
Remember, the weather can change at a moment’s notice, Stay Ahead! Events such as flash floods can occur with little or no warning due to prolonged rain, rain showers in the higher elevations and the soil already saturated.
Weather Report: Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological ServicesLetitia Humphreys-Forecaster
Sunday September 19, 2021 – The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA is monitoring Tropical Disturbance 1 (orange) located along the west coast of Africa. The system is forecast to emerge offshore this evening. Gradual development of this system is expected over the next several days, and a tropical depression could form late this week as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean. The disturbance has a 40% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in 5 days.
Residents are urged to continue to monitor the Atlantic for any changes with this tropical disturbance over the next several days.
The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA will continue to keep an eye on Tropical Disturbances 1, and will provide regular updates as new information is released.
HERE’S TONIGHT’S WEATHER FORECAST FOR MONTSERRAT – SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 19, 2021:
Synopsis: Tropical Storm Peter continues to move at a safe distance away from the Leeward Islands and British Virgin Islands. However its proximity to the islands will continue to lead to a high chance of cloudiness and showers over the next twenty four hours. Possible rainfall total over the next twenty four hours is 5 to 25 millimeters or 0.2 to 1 inch.
Weather tonight: Cloudy spells with a 70 percent or high chance of showers. There is also a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms.
Winds: Northeast at 7 to 19 km/h or 5 to 12 mph.Seas: 1.5 to 2.1 metres or 5 to 7 feet with northeast swells of 1.8 metres or 6 feet. A high surf advisory is in effect..Sunrise tomorrow: 5:58 am.
Temperatures: nighttime highs reaching 31°C or 88°F.
Remember, the weather can change at a moment’s notice, Stay Ahead! Events such as flash floods can occur with little or no warning due to prolonged rain, rain showers in the higher elevations and the soil already saturated.
Weather Report: Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services Orvin Paige-Forecaster
It states that Tropical Storm Peter is set to pass a safe distance away from Montserrat, and poses little to no threat to the island.
However, residents should continue to follow the progress of Tropical Storm Peter until it is out of the area.
The full statement below:..
TROPICAL STORM PETER SET TO PASS SAFE DISTANCE AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS…THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM PETER. HOWEVER, THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
PETER NOW POSES LITTLE TO NO THREAT TO ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA, THE REST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. ALSO, THE SYSTEM POSES NO THREAT TO THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN.
AT 11 AM, TROPICAL STORM PETER WAS LOCATED ABOUT 340 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 17 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST.
ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER 75 MILES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ON MONDAY AND BE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY. NOTWITHSTANDING, PETER COULD STILL CAUSE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 15 TO 30 MM OR 0.60 TO 1.20 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY. ALSO, SWELLS PROPAGATED BY THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO TRIGGER A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR MONDAY FOR SOME ISLANDS.
PLEASE NOTE THAT NO TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERTS, WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT AND NONE WILL AGAIN BE REQUIRED FOR THIS SYSTEM.
RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM PETER UNTIL IT IS OUT OF THE AREA.
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND 11 AM TOMORROW OR SOONER, IF REQUIRED.
According to the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services in a Tropical Cyclone Alert Statement issued on Sunday September 19, 2021 at 5:10 am, based on the latest information and analysis, Tropical Storm Peter poses little threat from Tropical Storm Force winds at this time; however, residents and interest in MONTSERRAT should continue to closely monitor the progress of this system.
It states that on the forecast track, the center of Tropical Peter is forecast to pass well north of the northern Leeward Islands which include MONTSERRAT on Monday and Tuesday and as a result, no watches or warnings are required at this time.
The statement further went on to say, that while no significant wind impacts are expected, outer bands from Tropical Storm Peter could produce heavy rainfall over portions of the Leewards WHICH INCLUDE MONTSERRAT beginning late Sunday; hence, residents in low lying flood prone areas should guard against possible flooding.
The Full statement Below:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES SIXTEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON AS TROPICAL STORM PETER FORMS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTICA TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS THAT, IN THIS CASE, A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS IN OUR MONITORED AREA WITH NO WATCHES AND WARNINGS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THE LATEST INFORMATION AND ANALYSIS, TROPICAL STORM PETER POSES LITTLE THREAT FROM TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AT THIS TIME; HOWEVER RESIDENTS AND INTEREST IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
AT 5 AM, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PETER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 53.5 WEST OR APPROXIMATELY 630 EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND APPROXIMATELY 830 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BVI. PETER IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H)THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A TURN BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS MOTION WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, FOLLOWED BY A SLOW WEAKENING TREND BY LATE MONDAY AND ON TUESDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF PETER IS FORECAST TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND AS A RESULT, NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.
WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT WIND IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED, OUTER BANDS FROM PETER COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER POTIONS OF THE LEEWARDS BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY; HENCE, RESIDENT IN LOW LYING A FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD GUARD AGAINST POSSIBLE FLOODING.SWELLS GENERATED BY PETER COULD ALSO REACH THE COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS COULD PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING SURFS AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL LIKELY GO INTO EFFECT TONIGHT.
RESIDENTS OF THE LEEWARD AND BVI SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM UNTIL IT CLEARS THE AREA.
On its Forecast Track, Tropical Disturbance AL95 is likely to maintain a path that places it just north of the islands which include Montserrat late Sunday or Monday.
The Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services in a Tropical Cyclone Alert Statement issued on Saturday, September 18, 2021 at 8:45pm, on Tropical Disturbance AL95, states that while significant development is not anticipated at this time, there remains some Uncertainty as to what impact, if any, AL95 will have on the islands which MONTSERRAT.
Therefore, residents should continue to closely monitor the progress of this disturbance, in the event watches or warnings are required.
The full statement below:
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL95 CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS THAT, IN THIS CASE, A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WITH OVER A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS IN OUR MONITORED AREA. WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NOT REQUIRED AT THIS TIME BUT MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 8 PM, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL95 WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT APPROXIMATELY 15 MPH AND HAS A 90 PERCENT OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN A PATH THAT PLACES IT JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. WHILE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT IMPACT, IF ANY, AL95 WILL HAVE ON THE ISLANDS.
AS A RESULT, RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE, IN THE EVENT WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED.
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND 3 AM TOMORROW OR SOONER, IF REQUIRED. FORECASTER LENARD JOSIAH
Residents on island should continue to closely monitor Tropical Disturbance AL95 and have their hurricane season disaster plans prepared in the event watches or warnings are issued, sometime in the next 24 hours.
The Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services issued the following Tropical Cyclone Alert Statement on Tropical Disturbance AL95 on Saturday, September 18, 2021 at 2:45pm:
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL95 COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND AFFECT THE AREA…
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS THAT, IN THIS CASE, A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WITH OVER A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS IN OUR MONITORED AREA. WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NOT REQUIRED AT THIS TIME BUT MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GIVEN THE CONTINUED FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING AL95, WITH RESPECT TO TIME OF FORMATION, EVENTUAL TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY, IT IS NOT YET POSSIBLE TO SAY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE WHAT EXACTLY WILL BECOME OF THIS SYSTEM. NOTWITHSTANDING, AT THE REASONABLE WORST-CASE, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL95 POSES AN ELEVATED THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE LIMITED IMPACTS FROM STORM-FORCE WINDS, HIGH SEAS AND MINOR FLOODING, RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING CONDITIONS, SOME DISRUPTIONS TO DAILY LIFE AND MINOR DAMAGE TO INFRASTRUCTURE. TO BE SAFE, BE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT YOUR HURRICANE SEASON DISASTER PLANS, AT SHORT NOTICE.
AT 2 PM , THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL95 WAS LOCATED ABOUT 740 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NOTWITHSTANDING UNFAVOURABLE WIND SHEAR, GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST AND THE SYSTEM HAS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 48 HOURS. ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL ENOUGH TIME FOR IT TO SHIFT FURTHER NORTH AND SPARE THE ISLANDS.
RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL95 AND HAVE THEIR HURRICANE SEASON DISASTER PLANS PREPARED TO SAFEGUARD LIFE, PROPERTY AND LIVELIHOOD, IN THE EVENT WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED, SOMETIME IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND 9 PM THIS EVENING OR SOONER, IF REQUIRED.
On its forecast track, the Disturbance will likely be at its closest point to Montserrat late Monday or Tuesday.
Given that the system is several hundred miles away from the islands, it is still too early to determine, with high confidence, the eventual strength of the disturbance as well as the specific impacts to the islands. For this reason, residents on Montserrat should continue to monitor the progress of Disturbance AL95.
The Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services issued the following Tropical Storm Ana (Potential Tropical Cyclone ) Alert Statement on Tropical Disturbance AL95 at 8AM:
..TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL95 CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION, AND COULD THREATEN THE AREA…
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS THAT, IN THIS CASE, A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WITH OVER A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS IN OUR MONITORED AREA. WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NOT REQUIRED AT THIS TIME BUT MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AT 8 AM, THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL95 WAS LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST AND THE SYSTEM HAS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 48 HOURS AND ALSO A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN FIVE DAYS. ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY BE AT ITS CLOSEST POINT TO ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA AND THE REST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
GIVEN THAT THE SYSTEM IS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS, IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF THE DISTURBANCE AS WELL AS THE SPECIFIC IMPACTS TO THE ISLANDS.
FOR THIS REASON, RESIDENTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DISTURBANCE.
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND 2 PM OR SOONER, IF REQUIRED.
