According to the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services in a Tropical Cyclone Alert Statement issued on Sunday September 19, 2021 at 5:10 am, based on the latest information and analysis, Tropical Storm Peter poses little threat from Tropical Storm Force winds at this time; however, residents and interest in MONTSERRAT should continue to closely monitor the progress of this system.
It states that on the forecast track, the center of Tropical Peter is forecast to pass well north of the northern Leeward Islands which include MONTSERRAT on Monday and Tuesday and as a result, no watches or warnings are required at this time.
The statement further went on to say, that while no significant wind impacts are expected, outer bands from Tropical Storm Peter could produce heavy rainfall over portions of the Leewards WHICH INCLUDE MONTSERRAT beginning late Sunday; hence, residents in low lying flood prone areas should guard against possible flooding.
The Full statement Below:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES SIXTEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON AS TROPICAL STORM PETER FORMS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTICA TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS THAT, IN THIS CASE, A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS IN OUR MONITORED AREA WITH NO WATCHES AND WARNINGS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THE LATEST INFORMATION AND ANALYSIS, TROPICAL STORM PETER POSES LITTLE THREAT FROM TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AT THIS TIME; HOWEVER RESIDENTS AND INTEREST IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
AT 5 AM, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PETER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 53.5 WEST OR APPROXIMATELY 630 EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND APPROXIMATELY 830 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BVI. PETER IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H)THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A TURN BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS MOTION WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, FOLLOWED BY A SLOW WEAKENING TREND BY LATE MONDAY AND ON TUESDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF PETER IS FORECAST TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND AS A RESULT, NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.
WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT WIND IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED, OUTER BANDS FROM PETER COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER POTIONS OF THE LEEWARDS BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY; HENCE, RESIDENT IN LOW LYING A FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD GUARD AGAINST POSSIBLE FLOODING.SWELLS GENERATED BY PETER COULD ALSO REACH THE COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS COULD PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING SURFS AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL LIKELY GO INTO EFFECT TONIGHT.
RESIDENTS OF THE LEEWARD AND BVI SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM UNTIL IT CLEARS THE AREA.
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND 11 AM TODAY.
FORECASTER BERNELL SIMON