On its Forecast Track, Tropical Disturbance AL95 is likely to maintain a path that places it just north of the islands which include Montserrat late Sunday or Monday.

The Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services in a Tropical Cyclone Alert Statement issued on Saturday, September 18, 2021 at 8:45pm, on Tropical Disturbance AL95, states that while significant development is not anticipated at this time, there remains some Uncertainty as to what impact, if any, AL95 will have on the islands which MONTSERRAT.

Therefore, residents should continue to closely monitor the progress of this disturbance, in the event watches or warnings are required.

The full statement below:

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL95 CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS THAT, IN THIS CASE, A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WITH OVER A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS IN OUR MONITORED AREA. WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NOT REQUIRED AT THIS TIME BUT MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 8 PM, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL95 WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT APPROXIMATELY 15 MPH AND HAS A 90 PERCENT OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN A PATH THAT PLACES IT JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. WHILE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT IMPACT, IF ANY, AL95 WILL HAVE ON THE ISLANDS.

AS A RESULT, RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE, IN THE EVENT WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED.

THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND 3 AM TOMORROW OR SOONER, IF REQUIRED. FORECASTER LENARD JOSIAH