TODAY IS A BEAUTIFUL SUNNY DAY HERE ON THE EMERALD ISLE! REMEMBER TO STAY HYDRATED! CONTINUE TO PRACTICE SOCIAL DISTANCING, WASH HANDS OFTEN & COVER COUGHS & SNEEZES.
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FRIDAY’S LOCAL MARINE WEATHER FORECAST FOR CAPTAINS, SAILORS, FISHERS, BOATERS & ADVENTURERS.
THE PEAK PERIOD OF THE HURRICANE SEASON IS UPON US; RESIDENTS, VISITORS AND BUSINESS OWNERS ARE ASKED TO ASSESS THEIR RISK NOW, ADJUST THEIR EMERGENCY PLANS AND SUPPLIES TO FACTOR IN THE IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND BE PREPARED.
BASED ON THE CURRENT PROJECTED TRACK & ANALYSIS, TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE IS EXPECTED TO PASS AT A SAFE DISTANCE NORTHEAST OF MONTSERRAT; HOWEVER, RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT & KEEP CLOSELY MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE UNTIL IT CLEARS THE AREA.
THAT’S ACCORDING TO THE 5 AM TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE ALERT STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
5 AM FRI, AUG 14, 2020 – JOSEPHINE CONTINUES ON ITS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
AT 5 AM, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 53.3 WEST OR ABOUT 680 MILES ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
JOSEPHINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH (28 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF JOSEPHINE IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM) FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).
BASED ON CURRENT PROJECTED TRACK AND ANALYSIS, TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE IS EXPECTED TO PASS AT A SAFE DISTANCE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS, BY TOMORROW SATURDAY. HOWEVER, RESIDENTS IN THE LEEWARD AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT AND KEEP CLOSELY MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE UNTIL IT CLEARS THE AREA.
REPEATING THE 5 AM POSITION: LATITUDE .15.3N LONGITUDE 53.3W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM. PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT 11 AM ECT
FORECASTER CECIL MATTHEW
TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WILL PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF MONTSERRAT ON SATURDAY AT A SAFE DISTANCE AWAY; NO PARTICULAR ACTION IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN FOR RESIDENTS TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM UNTIL IT CLEARS THE AREA.
THAT’S ACCORDING TO THE 5 PM TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE ALERT STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHICH INCLUDE MONTSERRAT AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
….JOSEPHINE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH…
AT 500 PM, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 50.6 WEST OR ABOUT 865 MILES ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND APPROXIMATELY 965 MILES ESE OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. JOSEPHINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH (26 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF JOSEPHINE IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).
BASED UPON THE LATEST POSITION AND ANALYSES, TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE WNW AND WILL PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY AT A SAFE DISTANCE AWAY. SOME CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS COULD STILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NO PARTICULAR ACTION IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM UNTIL IT CLEARS THE AREA.
REPEATING THE 5 PM POSITION…14.5N 50.6W, MOVEMENT WNW, MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH, MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT 11 PM ECT
FORECASTER ORVIN PAIGE
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE MOVEMENT OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE, MAINLY FOR ANY SOUTHERN SHIFT IN FORECAST TRACK THAT COULD BRING THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. SO SAYS, A TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE ALERT STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHICH INCLUDE MONTSERRAT.
11:03 AM, THU, AUG 13, 2020 – DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE.
AT 11 AM, THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 49.2 WEST OR ABOUT …. 871 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND 1072 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LATEST SATELLITE WIND DATA HAS INDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH WITH STRENGTHENING ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 48HRS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB OR 29.68 INCHES.
ON THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF LEEWARDS ISLANDS AND VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE DISTANCE, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS. THEREFORE, ALL RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE MOVEMENT OF JOSEPHINE, MAINLY FOR ANY SOUTHERN SHIFT IN FORECAST TRACK THAT COULD BRING THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.
FORECASTER PATRICE EDWARDS
TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE HAS FORMED – THE EARLIEST 10TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON ON RECORD; INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHICH INCLUDE MONTSERRAT SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
Yellow Hill, Montserrat – August 13, 2020: At 1100 AM, the center of Tropical Storm Josephine was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 49.2 West. Josephine is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days followed by a turn toward the northwest late this weekend or early next week.
Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)to the north of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
The DMCA will continue to monitor this system and provide updates as they become available.
SOURCE: NHC NOAA
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS, WHICH INCLUDE MONTSERRAT, SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON; RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT & CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM FOR ANY CHANGE IN THE FORECAST CONDITIONS AS ANY SOUTHWARDS SHIFTING OF THE PROJECTED TRACK COULD BRING THE DEPRESSION CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS.
THAT’S ACCORDING TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 ALERT STATEMENT BY THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AT 5:10 AM, THU, AUG 13, 2020.
THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS…DEPRESSION IS DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME BUT STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM…
AT 5:00 AM, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 47.9 WEST OR ABOUT 971 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND 1173 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).
ON ITS PRESENT TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS IN THE LEEWARD AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 FOR ANY CHANGE IN THE FORECAST CONDITIONS AS ANY SOUTHWARDS SHIFTING OF THE PROJECTED TRACK COULD BRING THE DEPRESSION CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THE ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVENTUAL WIND IMPACTS FROM THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME UP 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST FOR THE AREA.
RESIDENTS SHOULD HAVE THEIR HURRICANE PLANS COMPLETED AND BE PREPARED TO ACT.
FORECASTER LETITIA HUMPHREYS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 IS “LIKELY” TO PASS AT A SAFE DISTANCE FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHICH INCLUDE MONTSERRAT ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE “DYNAMIC NATURE” OF THESE SYSTEMS, A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK COULD BRING THE SYSTEM CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS – RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS.
THAT’S ACCORDING TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ALERT STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AT 5:00 PM ON WED, AUG 12, 2020 FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
DEPRESSION NOT YET A TROPICAL STORM…
AT 500 PM, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 45.7 WEST OR ABOUT 1220 MILES ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND APPROXIMATELY 1315 MILES ESE OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SIMILAR FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH THIS MOTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).
BASED UPON THE LATEST POSITION AND ANALYSES, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 IS LIKELY TO PASS AT A SAFE DISTANCE FROM THE LEEWARD ISLAND AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER GIVEN THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THESE SYSTEMS, A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK COULD BRING THE SYSTEM CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS. IT IS ALSO TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE SPECIFIC IMPACTS, IF ANY, THAT COULD OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE DEPRESSION. AS A RESULT, NO SPECIFIC ACTION IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN TO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
REPEATING THE 5 PM POSITION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11, 12.7N 45.7W, MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 MILES PER HOUR, MOVEMENT WEST NEAR 15 MILES PER HOUR. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB.
FORECASTER ORVIN PAIGE
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT (TCA) IS IN EFFECT FOR MONTSERRAT. TCA MEANS THAT THERE’S A TROPICAL CYCLONE (TD11) IN THE MONITORED AREA, BUT A WATCH OR WARNING IS NOT REQUIRED AT THIS TIME – RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN & BE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT THEIR HURRICANE PLAN SHOULD THIS SYSTEM BECOME A GREATER THREAT TO THE ISLAND.
TROPICAL DEPRESION ELEVEN ALERT STATEMENT ISSUED BY ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES – THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDSDEPRESSION REMAINS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH…
11:00 AM WED, AUG 12, 2020
THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME IN DETERMINING THE MAGNITUDE OF IMPACTS THE DEPRESSION WILL HAVE ON THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM STILL POSES A THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE IMPACTS FROM WINDS, STORM SURGE, SEAS AND FLOODING. AT 11:00 AM, THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 44.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1450 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
AT 11:00AM, THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 44.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1450 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH, AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SIMILAR FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH THIS MOTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB OR 29.74 INCHES.
ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN COULD BE NEAR THE ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY AS A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER, IT IS STILL A BIT EARLY TO SAY WITH CERTAINTY THE EVENTUAL PATH OF THE SYSTEM, THE WIND INTENSITY ON ARRIVAL AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL TOTALS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN COULD POSSIBLY STILL PASS OVER 120 MILES AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS AND SPARE US OF ANY SERIOUS IMPACT.
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND, RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN AND BE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT THEIR HURRICANE PLAN SHOULD THIS SYSTEM BECOME A GREATER THREAT TO THE ISLANDS.
FORECASTER BERNELL SIMON
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL, WARM & BREEZY DAY ON THE EMERALD ISLE; PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 40 PERCENT OF SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING; AND A 20 PERCENT OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE PEAK PERIOD OF THE HURRICANE SEASON IS HERE; RESIDENTS, VISITORS AND BUSINESS OWNERS ARE ASKED TO ASSESS THEIR RISK NOW, ADJUST THEIR EMERGENCY PLANS AND SUPPLIES TO FACTOR IN THE IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND BE PREPARED; IT ONLY TAKES ONE!
