THAT’S ACCORDING TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ALERT STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AT 5:00 PM ON WED, AUG 12, 2020 FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

DEPRESSION NOT YET A TROPICAL STORM…

AT 500 PM, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 45.7 WEST OR ABOUT 1220 MILES ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND APPROXIMATELY 1315 MILES ESE OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SIMILAR FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH THIS MOTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).

BASED UPON THE LATEST POSITION AND ANALYSES, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 IS LIKELY TO PASS AT A SAFE DISTANCE FROM THE LEEWARD ISLAND AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER GIVEN THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THESE SYSTEMS, A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK COULD BRING THE SYSTEM CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS. IT IS ALSO TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE SPECIFIC IMPACTS, IF ANY, THAT COULD OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE DEPRESSION. AS A RESULT, NO SPECIFIC ACTION IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN TO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

REPEATING THE 5 PM POSITION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11, 12.7N 45.7W, MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 MILES PER HOUR, MOVEMENT WEST NEAR 15 MILES PER HOUR. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB.

FORECASTER ORVIN PAIGE