Yellow Hill, Montserrat – August 13, 2020: At 1100 AM, the center of Tropical Storm Josephine was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 49.2 West. Josephine is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days followed by a turn toward the northwest late this weekend or early next week.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

The DMCA will continue to monitor this system and provide updates as they become available.

SOURCE: NHC NOAA

THAT’S ACCORDING TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 ALERT STATEMENT BY THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AT 5:10 AM, THU, AUG 13, 2020.

THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS…DEPRESSION IS DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME BUT STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM…

AT 5:00 AM, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 47.9 WEST OR ABOUT 971 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND 1173 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).

ON ITS PRESENT TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS IN THE LEEWARD AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 FOR ANY CHANGE IN THE FORECAST CONDITIONS AS ANY SOUTHWARDS SHIFTING OF THE PROJECTED TRACK COULD BRING THE DEPRESSION CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THE ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVENTUAL WIND IMPACTS FROM THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME UP 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST FOR THE AREA.

RESIDENTS SHOULD HAVE THEIR HURRICANE PLANS COMPLETED AND BE PREPARED TO ACT.

FORECASTER LETITIA HUMPHREYS

THAT’S ACCORDING TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ALERT STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AT 5:00 PM ON WED, AUG 12, 2020 FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

DEPRESSION NOT YET A TROPICAL STORM…

AT 500 PM, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 45.7 WEST OR ABOUT 1220 MILES ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND APPROXIMATELY 1315 MILES ESE OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SIMILAR FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH THIS MOTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).

BASED UPON THE LATEST POSITION AND ANALYSES, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 IS LIKELY TO PASS AT A SAFE DISTANCE FROM THE LEEWARD ISLAND AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER GIVEN THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THESE SYSTEMS, A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK COULD BRING THE SYSTEM CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS. IT IS ALSO TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE SPECIFIC IMPACTS, IF ANY, THAT COULD OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE DEPRESSION. AS A RESULT, NO SPECIFIC ACTION IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN TO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

REPEATING THE 5 PM POSITION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11, 12.7N 45.7W, MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 MILES PER HOUR, MOVEMENT WEST NEAR 15 MILES PER HOUR. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB.

FORECASTER ORVIN PAIGE

TROPICAL DEPRESION ELEVEN ALERT STATEMENT ISSUED BY ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES – THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDSDEPRESSION REMAINS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH…

11:00 AM WED, AUG 12, 2020

THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME IN DETERMINING THE MAGNITUDE OF IMPACTS THE DEPRESSION WILL HAVE ON THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM STILL POSES A THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE IMPACTS FROM WINDS, STORM SURGE, SEAS AND FLOODING. AT 11:00 AM, THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 44.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1450 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT 11:00AM, THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 44.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1450 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH, AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SIMILAR FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH THIS MOTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB OR 29.74 INCHES.

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN COULD BE NEAR THE ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY AS A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER, IT IS STILL A BIT EARLY TO SAY WITH CERTAINTY THE EVENTUAL PATH OF THE SYSTEM, THE WIND INTENSITY ON ARRIVAL AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL TOTALS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN COULD POSSIBLY STILL PASS OVER 120 MILES AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS AND SPARE US OF ANY SERIOUS IMPACT.

WITH ALL THIS IN MIND, RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN AND BE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT THEIR HURRICANE PLAN SHOULD THIS SYSTEM BECOME A GREATER THREAT TO THE ISLANDS.

FORECASTER BERNELL SIMON

THE PEAK PERIOD OF THE HURRICANE SEASON IS HERE; RESIDENTS, VISITORS AND BUSINESS OWNERS ARE ASKED TO ASSESS THEIR RISK NOW, ADJUST THEIR EMERGENCY PLANS AND SUPPLIES TO FACTOR IN THE IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND BE PREPARED; IT ONLY TAKES ONE!

THE PEAK PERIOD OF THE HURRICANE SEASON IS UPON US; RESIDENTS, VISITORS AND BUSINESS OWNERS ARE ASKED TO ASSESS THEIR RISK NOW, ADJUST THEIR EMERGENCY PLANS AND SUPPLIES TO FACTOR IN THE IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND BE PREPARED.

AT 5:00 AM WED, AUG 12, 2020

THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY…THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME IN DETERMINING THE MAGNITUDE OF IMPACTS THE DEPRESSION WILL HAVE ON THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM STILL POSES A THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE IMPACTS FROM WINDS, STORM SURGE, SEAS AND FLOODING AT 5:00 AM, THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 42.9 WEST OR ABOUT 1306 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1506 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH, AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY LATER TODAY.

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN COULD NEAR THE ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY AS A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER, IT IS STILL A BIT EARLY TO SAY WITH CERTAINTY THE EVENTUAL PATH OF THE SYSTEM, THE WIND INTENSITY ON ARRIVAL AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL TOTALS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN COULD STILL PASS OVER 120 MILES AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS AND SPARE US ANY SERIOUS IMPACT.

RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN AND BE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT THEIR HURRICANE PLAN SHOULD THIS SYSTEM BECOME A GREATER THREAT TO THE ISLANDS.

FORECASTER LORNE SALMON

THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS…

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORMS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN AND HAS ENTERED THE MONITORED AREA…

AT 500 PM, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 40.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1451 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND 1722 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH (26 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SIMILAR FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK BRINGING THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE NEAR OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN 4-5 DAYS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).

RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM CLOSELY AND HAVE THEIR HURRICANE PLANS COMPLETED, ESPECIALLY AS WE ARE IN THE PEAK MONTHS OF THE HURRICANE SEASON.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect, but residents should monitor this system closely as it has the potential to affect the island Saturday.

DMCA URGES RESIDENTS TO HAVE THEIR HURRICANE PLANS READY AND MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.

Yellow Hill, Montserrat – February 11, 2020 – At 500 PM, the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 40.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is forecast to begin Wednesday night and continue through the rest of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.

Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Wednesday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 MB (29.74 inches). 

Yellow Hill, Montserrat – August 10, 2020 – Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave and broad area of low pressure located about 600 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have changed little in organization since yesterday. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for development to occur, and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two while the disturbance moves generally westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic. Conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development by the end of the week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

Forecaster Berg