According to a statement issued by the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services on Saturday September 25, 2021, at 11:10 am, it states that based on current information and analysis, the forecast track of Hurricane Sam places the system sufficiently north of the area to spare the islands of tropical cyclone wind impacts; as a result, the system poses a low threat to the islands at this time.

It also adds that, notwithstanding, it is also necessary to mention that given the dynamic nature of tropical cyclones, shifts in the forecast track are possible which could bring the system closer to the area resulting in an increased threat of tropical cyclone impacts to the islands which include Montserrat.Hence, residents in Montserrat are urged to continue to closely monitor the progress of this potentially dangerous system.

At 11 am, the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 12.9 north, longitude 47.6 west or about 1095 miles east-southeast of the leeward islands. Sam is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph. A slower motion to the west-northwest is expected over the weekend, followed by a turn to the northwest on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph with higher gusts.

Sam is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson hurricane wind scale. Additional strengthening is expected over the next day or so, and Sam is forecast to become a category 4 hurricane by Sunday. Some fluctuations in the hurricane’s intensity are possible early next week. Sam is a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).

The next advisory will be at 5 pm

Forecaster Cecil Matthew