ACCORDING TO A TROPICAL STORM EARL ALERT STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AT 11:00 AM, SAT, SEP 3, 2022, A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONTSERRAT!
THERE REMAINS SOME LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH, TRACK AND SIZE OF TROPICAL STORM EARL. THE STORM-FORCE WINDS, WHICH ARE MAINLY LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTRE OF THE SYSTEM ARE ALSO FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE CYCLONE POSES MINOR THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE LIMITED IMPACTS FROM STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS NEVERTHELESS, YOU SHOULD BE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN AT VERY SHORT NOTICE SHOULD THE NEED ARISE.
AT 1100 AM, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST. OR ABOUT 91 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF BARBUDA AND ABOUT 62 MILES, NORTHEAST OF ANGUILLA. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF EARL IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY, AND NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES (280 KM), MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB (29.62 INCHES) STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA. NOTWITHSTANDING, ANY SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF EARL’S CENTRE WOULD INCREASE THE THREAT OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS REACHING, AT LEAST, SOME OF THE ISLANDS.
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO KEEP CLOSELY MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM EARL AS IT CONTINUE TO PASS CLOSELY TO THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT AROUND 5 PM.
FORECASTER CECIL MATTHEW