Yellow Hill – Tuesday, 4 October 2022 – The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA continues to monitor the progress of Tropical Disturbance 2 (red) located East of the Windward Islands with a medium chance of development in 48 hrs and a high probability of formation in the next 5 days. At this time, the system is not a threat to Montserrat, and there are no watches or warnings issued for the island.

According to the 2PM Tropical Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center, Tropical Disturbance 2 is located couple of hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands.
Upper-level winds are likely to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form during the next couple of days if the system stays far enough away from land while moving westward at about 15 mph across the Windward Islands and the southeastern Caribbean Sea. Conditions appear to become more conducive for development later this week when the system reaches the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected over portions of the Windward Islands tonight and Wednesday. Interests in the Windward Islands, the ABC Islands, and the northern coast of Venezuela should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating this system. The system has a 40% chance of formation in the next two days and, a 70% chance of development in the next five days.

Tropical Disturbance 1 located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is becoming better defined, and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity has become more concentrated near the low’s center. A short-lived tropical depression is likely to form later today or tonight before upper-level winds increase and become too hostile for further development on Wednesday. The low is forecast to move northwestward at about 10 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic during the next couple of days. Tropical Disturbance 1 has an 80% chance of formation in the next two days and, an 80% chance of development in the next five days.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA is encouraging residents to continue to monitor the DMCA and be prepared.

DMCA will continue to monitor Tropical Disturbances 1 and 2, and provide regular updates as information becomes available.