The centre of Tropical Disturbance AL95 is expected to pass south of the Leeward Islands including Montserrat tonight. Based on the forecast model tracks, the system will be the nearest to the area on Tuesday morning, and at this time, it will likely cause the area storm-force gusts and hazardous seas. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are also possible. Impacts, if any, are expected to be minimal.

That’s according to the 2 PM tropical cyclone information statement issued by the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services.

It states that Tropical disturbance AL95 is very unlikely to become a tropical cyclone before reaching the eastern Caribbean; hence, at the reasonable worst-case scenario, the system poses little threat to Montserrat. Nevertheless, you should have your hurricane disaster plan prepared for the hurricane season and monitor this disturbance until it is out of the area.

At 2 pm, Tropical Disturbance AL95 was centred about 570 miles southeast of the leeward islands and about 440 miles east of the windward Islands moving west at around 20 mph.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph with higher gusts. Some slow development is possible during the next 48 hours; the system has a 20 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next couple of hours.

Please note that no alerts, watches or warnings are currently in effect for the area and none is expected for this system.

Residents should continue to monitor tropical disturbance AL95 and ensure that they have their hurricane season plans prepared.

An update will be given around 2 pm tomorrow, or sooner if required.

The DMCA will continue to monitor the system and provide regular updates as deemed necessary.

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