Tropical Disturbance AL95 is likely to pass south of the Leeward Islands including Montserrat early next week as it continues to approach the Caribbean, however, in the reasonable worst-case scenario, the system poses little threat to the island.

Nevertheless, this assessment is subject to change; to be safe, residents are advised to have their hurricane disaster plan prepared and closely monitor this disturbance until it is out of the area, according to the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services.

It states that given the high uncertainty of the development, there is little confidence in the eventual strength and size of this system.

At 8:00 am, Tropical Disturbance AL95 is located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands. While this system has not become significantly better organized since yesterday, some slow development remains possible during the next couple of days while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic and into the eastern Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and strong gusty winds are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles during the next day or two.

The system has a 20 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in 48 hours and 20 percent in seven days.

Based on the forecast model tracks, the system could be at the nearest point to the area on Tuesday. At this time, it could be a minimal tropical cyclone and may Possibly bring storm-force gusts to the islands and hazardous seas. Impacts, if any, are expected to be minimal.

Please note that no alerts, watches or warnings are currently in effect for the area and none might be needed for this system.

Residents should continue to monitor tropical disturbance AL95 and ensure that they have their hurricane season plans prepared.

An update will be given around 2 pm Today or sooner if required.

The DMCA will continue to monitor the system and provide regular updates as deemed necessary.

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