ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
THU, OCT 9, 2025

THIS IS FOR MONTSERRAT

…JERRY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT…

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Montserrat. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case, within 12 hours.

At 5:00 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 17.3° North, longitude 60.6° West, or about 111 miles east-northeast of Montserrat.

Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph. A turn toward the northwest is expected this evening, followed by a slightly slower northward motion on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near the northern Leeward Islands this evening and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tomorrow, but slow strengthening is possible over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles, mainly east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb.

Based on the latest observations and analysis, the core of Jerry is expected to pass near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands later today into Friday, causing gusty conditions mainly in showers.

Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are possible during Jerry’s passage, which could cause minor to moderate flooding, mainly in low-lying and flood-prone areas.

Swells generated by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward Islands this afternoon. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents; hence, mariners are strongly advised to remain in port.

Residents should continue preparing for the possibility of storm conditions, and if the watch is upgraded to a warning, be ready to complete preparations quickly.

The next advisory will be issued at 11:00 PM ECT.

Forecaster: Orvin Paige