Yellow Hill, Montserrat – August 21st, 2020 – Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Tropical Depression Thirteen has strengthened and is now Tropical Storm Laura with maximum sustained winds of around 45 mph (75 km/h). The aircraft also found that the center of Laura is located south of the previously estimated position. These changes will be reflected in the track and intensity forecasts with the upcoming advisory that will be issued at 1100 AM.
LOCATION…17.0N 59.8W ABOUT 230 MI…375 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH…33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB…29.77 INCHES
THE PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON IS HERE; IF YOU HAVE BEEN PUTTING OFF ANY FINAL PREPARATIONS AT HOME OR YOUR BUSINESS, NOW IS THE TIME TO COMPLETE THEM AND BE PREPARED
HOWEVER, RESIDENTS ON MONTSERRAT SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT AND CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND HAVE THEIR STORM PLANS PREPARED.THAT’S
ACCORDING TO DALE DESTIN, METEOROLOGIST AT THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
Yellow Hill, Montserrat – August 20, 2020 – At 8 PM, the center of poorly organized Tropical Depression Thirteen was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 55.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to move near or north of the northern Leeward Islands by late Friday, near or north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday, and near or north of Hispaniola Saturday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Friday.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter data is 1009 MB (29.80 inches).
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches over the northern Leeward Islands, and maximum totals of 3 to 6 inches over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands through Sunday.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area late Friday and Saturday.
In its 11 am Tropical Storm Arthur (Potential Tropical Cyclone ) Alert Statement today for Montserrat and the British Virgin Islands, the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services said that a Tropical Storm Watch may be required across Montserrat and the British Virgin Islands later today.
The Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service is closely monitoring the progress of tropical depression 13, this system is expected to strengthen and has the potential to become a tropical storm and impact the islands. Given the normal uncertainty in the forecast track intensity and size of the tropical cyclone it is still not certain what exact tropical cyclone hazard values, if any are expected to occur across the area. Notwithstanding, the depression could be in the vicinity by late Friday or Saturday, as a tropical storm. Therefore, it poses a threat to the with the potential to cause significant impacts from storm force winds, high seas, minor storm surges and minor flooding. Residents should monitor the progress of this system and start to implement their disaster plans.
At 11 am, the centre of tropical depression 13 was located near latitude 15.4 north, longitude 50.9 west or about 678 miles east-southeast of Montserrat and 847 miles east-southeast of the British virgin islands. This system is moving west-northwest at around 21 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 miles per hour with higher gusts and a minimum central pressure of 1008 mb. Gradual strengthening is forecast and the depression is expected to become Tropical Storm Laura today. On its present forecast track, the system will most likely pass near to or north of the leeward islands and this should result in more dangerous winds staying away from the island. However, any shift in the track to the south could bring the system dangerously close to the area late Friday. To be safe plans and preparations should be for the reasonable worst-case scenario of the depression impacting area. The system has the potential to cause limited damage, possible power outage and disruption to travel, a watch may become necessary later today. Residents should monitor this system closely and have their storm plans prepared. The next update will be at 5 pm
THE DISASTER MANAGEMENT COORDINATION AGENCY (DMCA) IS CLOSELY MONITORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13 AND IS URGING RESIDENTS TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM, BE VIGILANT AND ASSESS YOUR HURRICANE PLANS.
Yellow Hill, Montserrat – August 20, 2020 – The Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla.
At 800 AM – the centre of Tropical Depression Thirteen was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 50.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to move near or north of the northern Leeward Islands by late Friday and near or north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches through Sunday over the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Friday.
Keep your supplies in an easy-to-carry emergency-preparedness kit or duffel bag that you can use at home or take with you in case you must evacuate. BE PREPARED!
CONTINUE TO PRACTICE SOCIAL DISTANCING, WASH HANDS OFTEN & COVER COUGHS & SNEEZES. THE PEAK PERIOD OF THE HURRICANE SEASON IS HERE; RESIDENTS, VISITORS AND BUSINESS OWNERS ARE ASKED TO ASSESS THEIR RISK NOW, ADJUST THEIR EMERGENCY PLANS AND SUPPLIES TO FACTOR IN THE IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND BE PREPARED; IT ONLY TAKES ONE!
Tuesday, August 18th, 2020 – 10:40 am – Tropical cyclone expected to form and threaten the northeast Caribbean… The Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services is closely following the progress of tropical disturbance AL98 located over the central tropical North Atlantic. It is expected to become a tropical storm and has the potential to impact the leeward islands and the British virgin islands this weekend. Given the normal uncertainty in the forecast track, intensity and size of the eventual tropical cyclone, which will develop from AL98, it is impossible to predict what exact tropical-cyclone-hazard values, if any, are expected to occur, this far in advance. Notwithstanding, the disturbance could be in the vicinity around Friday/Saturday, as a tropical storm or hurricane. The threat level is little to none, at this time, but is expected to rise to, at least, elevated levels later today; hence, a tropical cyclone alert will be required then. To be safe, have your hurricane disaster plans prepared and monitor this system closely. At 10 am, tropical disturbance AL98 was located near latitude 12.0 north and longitude 36.5 west or about 1720 miles east-southeast of the leeward islands, moving west to west-northwest at around 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds are less than 35 mph. Strengthening is forecast, and there is a high chance of a tropical depression or tropical storm forming in 48 hours. Al98 could impact the northeast Caribbean, as a storm or hurricane; however, it could also follow a similar path to Josephine and spare the islands any harm. It is very early days and any number of things could happen. Prepared for the reasonable worst-case scenario and hope for the best. No alerts, watches or warnings are in effect, at this time, but an alert will be required later today. Residents should monitor this developing system closely and have their hurricane plans prepared, as the system could become a serious threat and cause damage this weekend. An update will be given around 8 pm tonight or sooner if needed. Forecaster Dale Destin
THAT’S ACCORDING TO A TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE ALERT STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AT 5:30 PM FRIDAY, AUGUST 14, 2020 FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
…HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS CENTER OF JOSEPHINE A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH…
AT 5 PM, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 56.1 WEST OR ABOUT 460 E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND 560 MILES E OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. JOSEPHINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH (26 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF JOSEPHINE IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. AFTER THAT, JOSEPHINE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT ENCOUNTERS UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM) MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).
BASED UPON THE LATEST POSITION AND ANALYSES, TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE SHOULD PASS AT A SAFE DISTANCE FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH THE PASSAGE OF JOSEPHINE AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL TOTAL IS 15 TO 25 MM OR 0.5 TO 1 INCH. SWELLS OF 6 TO 8 FEET ARE POSSIBLE AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA, ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS UNTIL SUNDAY. RESIDENTS ARE ASKED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PASSAGE OF JOSEPHINE UNTIL IT CLEARS THE AREA.
