ACCORDING TO THE 5 PM TROPICAL ALERT STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES ON TUESDAY, 20 JUNE 2023, ON ITS PRESENT TRACK, TROPICAL STORM BRET COULD BE NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

SPECIFIC IMPACTS WOULD DEPEND ON THE INTENSITY, SIZE, TRACK AND FORWARD SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM.

AT 5 PM TROPICAL STORM BRET WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2N LONGITUDE 48.6 W OR ABOUT 944 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

PRESENT MOVEMENT…WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH…30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.

ALL RESIDENTS IN MONTSERRAT ARE URGED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MOVEMENT OF TROPICAL STORM BRET CLOSELY.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT 11 PM ECT

FORECASTER CECIL MATTHEW

ACCORDING TO THE 11 AM TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES TODAY, TUESDAY, 20 JUNE 2023, TROPICAL STORM BRET CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE WEST.

THE LATEST INFORMATION AND GUIDANCE ON BRET SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

GIVEN ITS CURRENT DISTANCE FROM THE ISLANDS AND THE UNCERTAINTIES IN ITS TRACK, NO SPECIFIC ACTION IS REQUIRED OF RESIDENTS AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN TO KEEP MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM BRET.

AT 11 AM, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 47.0 WEST OR APPROXIMATELY 1053 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

BRET IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 21 MILES PER HOUR AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, BUT BRET IS EXPECTED TO BE A TROPICAL STORM AS IT APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER WITH AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1008 MB OR 29.77 INCHES.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT 5 PM.

FORECASTER JALEEL JACOBS

ACCORDING TO THE 11 PM TROPICAL STORM BRET ALERT STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, ON ITS PRESENT TRACK, TROPICAL STORM BRET COULD BE NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. SPECIFIC IMPACTS WOULD DEPEND ON THE INTENSITY, SIZE, TRACK AND FORWARD SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM. HENCE, A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR LESS.

AT 11 PM TROPICAL STORM BRET WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4N LONGITUDE 43.5W ABOUT 1117 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH…30 KM/H MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H WITH HIGHER GUSTS MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB…29.77 INCHES.

ALL RESIDENTS IN MONTSERRAT ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE MOVEMENT OF TROPICAL STORM BRET CLOSELY.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT 5 AM.

FORECASTER JALEEL JACOBS

According to a statement issued at 5 pm on Monday, June 19, 2023, it states that Tropical Storm Bret could bring locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds. The specific amount of the impacts would depend on the intensity, size, eventual track and forward speed of this system. Hence, a tropical storm or hurricane watch may be required for some of the islands in the next 48 hours or less.

At 5 pm, Bret was located near latitude 11.3N longitude 42.2W about 1191 miles east- southeast of Antigua and Barbuda and the leeward Islands including Montserrat. Maximum sustained winds…40 mph…65 km/h with higher gusts. Present movement…W or 280 degrees at 21 mph…33 km/h Minimum Central Pressure…1008 mb…29.77 inches.

The next advisory will be at 11 pm.

Forecaster Cecil Matthew

According to a statement issued by the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services at 11:58 am Monday, June 19, 2023, the system could bring locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds. The specific amount would depend on the intensity, size, eventual track and forward speed of this system. Hence, a hurricane watch may be required for some of the islands in the next 48 hours. Residents should complete their hurricane plans and be prepared to start to implement them.

AT 5 PM, the center of Tropical Storm Bret was located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 42.2 West. Bret is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next several days. On the forecast track, the system should be approaching the Lesser Antilles late this week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Bret could become a hurricane in a couple of days.

Residents on Montserrat should Closely Monitor This Tropical Storm Bret And Be Prepared To Protect Life, Property And Livelihood Should This System Becomes A Threat To The Island!

Yellow Hill – Monday, 19 June 2023 – At this time there are no watches or warnings in effect for Montserrat. Residents must continue to monitor the Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA) in case of any change with this system. DMCA will continue to monitor the progress of this system closely and provide regular updates.

At 1100 AM, the center of Tropical Depression Three was located near latitude 11.0 North, longitude 40.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next several days. On the forecast track, the system should be approaching the Lesser
Antilles late this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is forecast to become a hurricane in a few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA is encouraging residents and visitors to continue to monitor the DMCA, review their hurricane plans, assess their risks, complete their hurricane preparations, and be prepared.

THAT’S ACCORDING TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT BY ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AT 9 AM MONDAY JUNE 19 2023.

IT STATES GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE FINAL FORECAST TRACK, INTENSITY AND SIZE OF AL92, IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE WHICH ISLANDS, IF ANY, WILL BE IMPACTED, BY WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE A NAMED STORM. HOWEVER, UNDER THE REASONABLE WORST-CASE SCENARIO, DISTURBANCE AL92 CURRENTLY POSES, AT LEAST, A MINIMAL THREAT. NEVERTHELESS, THIS ASSESSMENT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE, AND IT IS LIKELY THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT WILL BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. TO BE SAFE, HAVE YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN PREPARED AND CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM.

AT 8 AM, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL92 WAS LOCATED ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WEST AT AROUND 18 MPH.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED, AND AL92 IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM BRET LATER TODAY. THERE IS A NEAR 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF FORMATION.

BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM COULD BE IN OR NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THIS COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE SPECIFIC IMPACT WILL DEPEND ON THE INTENSITY, SIZE, TRACK AND FORWARD SPEED OF THE SYSTEM.

PLEASE NOTE THAT NO ALERTS, WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA, BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TODAY.

RESIDENTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL92 AND ENSURE THAT THEY HAVE THEIR HURRICANE SEASON PLANS PREPARED TO PROTECT LIFE, PROPERTY AND LIVELIHOOD.

AN UPDATE WILL BE GIVEN AROUND 8 PM TODAY, OR SOONER IF REQUIRED.

FORECASTER DALE DESTIN

Yellow Hill – Monday, 19 June 2023 – The two tropical disturbances pose no immediate threat to Montserrat at this time, and no watches or warnings have been issued for the island. The Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA) continues to monitor the progress of both systems closely and will provide regular updates.

As of Monday morning, the National Hurricane Center says AL92 located roughly midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles has become better organized overnight and is close to becoming a tropical cyclone. If current trends continue, advisories could be initiated on a tropical depression later today. This system is forecast to move generally westward at 15 to 20 mph with further development across the central tropical Atlantic through the middle part of this week.

Disturbance 1 has a near 100% chance of formation in the next two days and, a near 100% chance of development in the next seven days.

Disturbance 2, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Further development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form within the next few days while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

Disturbance 2 has a 30% chance of formation in the next two days and, a 40% chance of development in the next seven days.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA is encouraging residents and visitors to continue to monitor the DMCA, review their hurricane plans, assess their risks, complete their hurricane preparations, and be prepared.

Be Prepared, Stay Prepared, It Only Takes One!

Yellow Hill – Sunday, 18 June 2023 – Tropical Disturbances AL92 and 2 pose no immediate threat to Montserrat at this time, and no watches or warnings have been issued for the island. The Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA) continues to monitor the progress of the AL92 closely and will provide regular updates.

As of Sunday evening, the National Hurricane Center says AL92 located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form over the next day or so. This system is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic with further development through the middle part of the week.

Disturbance 2, located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands recently emerged off the coast of Africa. Some slow development of this system is possible through the middle to the latter part of this week as the system moves westward at about 15 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.

Disturbance 1 has a 10% chance of formation in the next two days and, a 20% chance of development in the next seven days.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA is encouraging residents and visitors to continue to monitor the DMCA, review their hurricane plans, assess their risks, complete their hurricane preparations, and be prepared.

Be Prepared, Stay Prepared, It Only Takes One!

Yellow Hill – Sunday, 18 June 2023 – Tropical Disturbance AL92 poses no immediate threat to Montserrat at this time, and no watches or warnings have been issued for the island. The Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA) continues to monitor the progress of the system closely and will provide regular updates.

As of Sunday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center says AL92 located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form over the next day or so. This system is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic with further development through the middle part of the week.

Invest AL92 has a 90% chance of formation in the next two days and, a 90% chance of development in the next seven days.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA is encouraging residents and visitors to continue to monitor the DMCA, review their hurricane plans, assess their risks, complete their hurricane preparations, and be prepared.

Be Prepared, Stay Prepared, It Only Takes One!