ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 9, 2025

THIS IS FOR MONTSERRAT

…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AS JERRY PASSES NEARBY LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT…

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Montserrat. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions pose a possible threat to the specified area within 48 hours.

At 5:00 AM, the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 15.7° North, longitude 57.7° West, or about 267 miles east-southeast of Montserrat.

Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue through today. A northwestward motion at a slower forward speed should begin tonight, followed by a northward motion on Friday and Saturday.

On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near or to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands later today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Jerry could become a hurricane by late Friday or Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles, mainly east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb.

Based on the latest observation and analysis, the core of Jerry is expected to be near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands later today into Friday, bringing gusty conditions mainly in showers.

Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are possible during the passage of Jerry, which could cause localized flooding in low-lying and flood-prone areas.

Swells generated by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward Islands this afternoon. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents; therefore, mariners are advised to remain in port.

No specific action is required of residents other than to closely monitor the progress of Jerry.

The next advisory will be issued at 11:00 AM.

Forecaster: Trecy Spencer-Lake