ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 9, 2025

FOR MONTSERRAT

…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AS JERRY PASSES NEARBY LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT…

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Montserrat. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions pose a possible threat to the specified area within 48 hours.

At 8:00 AM, the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 15.7°N, longitude 58.4°W, or about 263 miles east-southeast of Montserrat.

Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue through today. A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, followed by a slightly slower northward motion on Friday and Saturday.

On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near or to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands later today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds: 65 mph, with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Jerry could become a hurricane by late Friday or Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles, mainly east of the center.

Minimum central pressure: 999 mb.

Based on the latest analysis, the core of Jerry is expected to be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands later today into Friday, causing gusty conditions mainly in showers. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are possible during Jerry’s passage, which could result in minor to moderate flooding, mainly in low-lying and flood-prone areas.

Swells generated by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward Islands this afternoon. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Mariners are strongly advised to remain in port.

Residents should closely monitor the progress of Jerry and be prepared for possible storm conditions.

The next advisory will be issued at 11:00 AM ECT.

Forecasters: Letitia Humphreys / Charissa Humphreys