A tropical cyclone alert remains in effect for Montserrat for Hurricane Erin, which is now a Category 4.

A tropical cyclone alert means, in this case, Hurricane Erin is within our monitored area but not close enough for a watch or warning.

In its Tropical Cyclone Information Statement issued at 5 a.m. on Saturday, August 16, 2025, the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service indicated that the best forecast remains for the centre of Erin to pass northeast then north of all the islands.

It states that the chance of storm-force winds reaching the mentioned islands is low. However, any shift towards the islands could bring the core of the system uncomfortably close to the islands today into Sunday. The risk from swells will rise; hence, those near coastal areas should be aware. Other hazards, such as heavy rainfall accompanied by strong gusty winds, are also possible within outer rain bands.

Residents and visitors on Montserrat should monitor the progress of this cyclone and, to be safe, be prepared for the rest of the hurricane season.

At 8:00 am, the center of Hurricane Erin was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 62.0 West. While the eye has wobbled westward during the past few hours, Erin is moving generally toward the west-northwest near 20 mph.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph with higher gusts.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles, mainly to the north of the center.

The minimum central pressure is 935 mb.

Swells from Erin will cause marine conditions to deteriorate, and mariners are advised to remain in port and ensure that their vessels are safely moored.

Forecaster Jaleel Jacobs

A Tropical Cyclone Alert remains in effect for Montserrat.

A tropical cyclone alert means, in this case, that Hurricane Erin is within our monitored area but not close enough for a watch or warning to be issued.

The best forecast remains for the centre of Erin to pass northeast, then north of Montserrat. The chance of storm-force winds reaching Montserrat is low. However, any shift towards the islands could bring the core of the system uncomfortably close to the islands late tonight into Sunday. The risk from swells will rise; hence, those near coastal areas should be aware. Other hazards, such as heavy rainfall accompanied by strong gusty winds, are also possible within outer rain bands.

Residents on Montserrat should monitor the progress of this cyclone and, to be safe, be prepared for the rest of the hurricane season.

At 5:00 pm, the center of Hurricane Erin was located near latitude 18.9 north, longitude 57.6 west or 365 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands.

Erin is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph. This motion is expected to continue into the weekend with some decrease in forward speed. On the current forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to pass just north of the northern Leewards during the weekend
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Erin is forecast to become a major hurricane during this weekend.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles mainly to the north of the center.

The minimum central pressure is 993 mb.

Swells from Erin would cause marine conditions to deteriorate, and mariners are advised to remain in port and ensure that their vessels are safely moored.

Rainfall amounts of 2 -4 inches are possible, which could cause flooding in low-lying and flood-prone areas; hence, residents should move to a safer location.

Forecaster Bernell Simon

A Tropical Cyclone Alert remains in effect for Montserrat.

A tropical cyclone alert means, in this case, that Hurricane Erin is within our monitored area but not close enough for a watch or warning to be issued.

In its Tropical Cyclone Information Statement issued at 12:15 p.m. on Friday, August 15, 2025, the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service indicated that the best forecast remains for the centre of Erin to pass northeast then north of all the islands. The chance of storm-force winds reaching the mentioned islands is low. However, any shift towards the islands could bring the core of the system uncomfortably close to the islands late tonight into Sunday. The risk from swells will rise; hence, those near coastal areas should be aware. Other hazards, such as heavy rainfall accompanied by strong gusty winds, are also possible within outer rain bands

Residents on Montserrat should monitor the progress of this cyclone and, to be safe, be prepared for the rest of the hurricane season.

At 11:00 am, the center of Hurricane Erin was located near latitude 18.2 north, longitude 56.1 or 460 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands.

Erin is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). This motion is expected to continue into the weekend. On the current forecast track, the center of Erin is expected to pass northeast to north of the area during the weekend

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Erin is forecast to become a major hurricane over the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles mainly to the north of the center.

The minimum central pressure is 996 mb.

Swells from Erin would cause marine conditions to deteriorate, and mariners are advised to remain in port and ensure that their vessels are safely moored.

Rainfall amounts of 2 -4 inches are possible, which could cause flooding in low-lying and flood-prone areas; hence, residents should move to a safer location.

A Tropical Storm Alert remains in effect for Montserrat… Erin is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane today.

The Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service continues to monitor the progress of strengthening tropical storm Erin. The system is forecast to become a hurricane by today and possibly pass dangerously close to Montserrat.

The best forecast remains for the centre of Erin to pass north of all the islands. The chance of storm-force winds reaching the mentioned islands is low. However, further shifts to the south or persistent westward motion could bring the core of the system uncomfortably close to the islands late tonight or Saturday. The risk from swells will increase; therefore, those living near coastal areas should be aware. Other hazards, such as heavy rainfall accompanied by strong gusty winds, are also possible.

Montserrat should monitor the progress of this cyclone and, to be safe, be prepared for the rest of the hurricane season.

At 5 am, the center of Tropical Storm Erin was located near latitude 17.8 north, longitude 54.4 west. Erin is moving toward the west-northwest at 17 mph. This motion is expected to continue into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern leeward islands over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Erin is forecast to become a hurricane later today and could become a major hurricane by this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center.

The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 997 mb.

Forecaster Patrice Edwards

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA) continues to monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Erin, which forecasters warn could come dangerously close to Montserrat this weekend if there is any southward shift in its track.

As of 5:00 a.m., the center of Tropical Storm Erin was located near latitude 16.5° North and longitude 41.9° West. Erin is moving west at around 20 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and a minimum central pressure of 1004 mb.

On the current forecast track, the center of Erin is expected to pass near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend.

Gradual strengthening is forecast to begin today, and Erin is likely to become a hurricane by late Thursday or early Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center.

At this time, no watches or warnings are in effect for Montserrat.

The DMCA urges residents to review their hurricane preparedness and business continuity plans, remain informed through official channels, and be ready to act in case conditions change.

The DMCA will continue to provide regular updates on Tropical Storm Erin.

DMCA is monitoring Tropical Storm Erin, located near 17.4°N, 34.3°W, moving west at 22 mph with winds of 45 mph.

No threat to Montserrat at this time. Erin is expected to strengthen and could become a hurricane in the next couple of days.

Review your hurricane plans.
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The Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA) today hosted a national tabletop simulation exercise to assess Montserrat’s readiness for a mass casualty incident.

The exercise was designed to test stakeholder coordination, operational readiness, standard operating procedures (SOPs), and the effectiveness of a unified command structure.

Participants included officers from the Montserrat Fire and Rescue Service (MFRS), Royal Montserrat Police Force (RMPF), and the Royal Montserrat Defence Force (RMDF). Also participating were representatives from the Montserrat Port Authority, the Ministry of Health, the Office of the Deputy Governor, GIS, the Montserrat Red Cross, and the DMCA.

Miami, May 22, 2025 – On the final day of the UK Overseas Territories Conference in Miami, the Information and Education Officer at the Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA), Shirlian Queeley, delivered a presentation on Montserrat’s strategic disaster resilience priorities for the period 2025–2028.

Her presentation supported the strategic design of a more robust and targeted disaster management project portfolio under the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) Civil Resilience Programme, which aims to enable multi-year programming across all UK Overseas Territories (UK OTs).

Key focus areas included DMCA’s Strategic Priorities (2025–2028), Core Capabilities for Development or Enhancement, and Local Priorities to Strengthen Montserrat’s Resilience.

Drawing reference to the recent heavy rainfall in May, which triggered widespread flash flooding across ghauts, culverts, low-lying, and flood-prone areas during the traditional dry season, Ms Queeley noted is a stark example of the increasing impacts of climate change, and highlighted the urgent need for significant investment in multi-hazard early warning systems and disaster risk reduction technologies.

Ms Queeley emphasized the importance of modern tools and infrastructure for managing disaster risk in Montserrat, including flood sensors, real-time weather stations, multi-hazard early warning sirens, a national emergency mobile app, properly equipped multi-hazard emergency shelters, a water bowser for emergency water distribution and comprehensive vulnerability mapping to identify at-risk populations and infrastructure.

She called for long-term funding, training in critical areas, and technological innovation to improve early warning capabilities, enhance preparedness, and reduce disaster impacts.

Through strategic partnerships and inclusive community engagement, Ms. Queeley affirmed the DMCA’s ongoing commitment to a safer, more climate and disaster resilience Montserrat.

Ms. Queeley expressed her gratitude to DMCA Director Lt. Col. Alvin Ryan for the opportunity to represent Montserrat at this important forum. Samuel Paice, Head of the Governor’s Office, and Lt. Col. Ryan also attended the conference.

The May 20–22, 2025, conference brought together representatives from disaster management agencies and Governors’ offices across the UK OTs to coordinate strategies, share lessons learned, and strengthen disaster preparedness across the Overseas Territories network.

— Ends —

The second in-country consultation to support the development of a Comprehensive Disaster Management (CDM) Country Work Programme (CWP) for Montserrat was held on Wednesday, 30 April 2025, at the Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA). The session brought together technocrats from both the public and private sectors.

This initiative aims to strengthen disaster risk reduction measures across Montserrat. In keeping with CDM’s “all people, all phases” approach, representatives from a wide range of organizations were invited to provide feedback and contribute to the activities and deliverables of the CWP, which will be a five-year strategic plan for Montserrat.

The consultation featured presentations and interactive sessions, including group discussions and participatory activities. Key areas of focus included drafting the CWP Impact Statement and its Outcome and Output statements.

Ms. Stacy-Ann Austin, Disaster Risk Management Technical Programming Associate at the University of the West Indies Disaster Risk Reduction Centre (UWI DRRC), who is leading the on-island consultations, delivered a featured presentation. She outlined the proposed approach to developing the CWP, highlighted priority areas to be addressed, and discussed the expected outcomes of the strategic plan.

Ms. Shirlian Queeley, Information and Education Officer at the DMCA reaffirmed the agency’s unwavering commitment to developing the CWP. She encouraged participants to actively contribute to this critical consultative process, which aims to build a stronger multi-hazard risk reduction culture in Montserrat.

Ms. Queeley emphasized that Montserrat’s resilience has been tested for nearly three decades—navigating life with an active volcano, the loss of two-thirds of its habitable land, and ongoing exposure to natural and technological hazards. These experiences have deepened our understanding of Montserrat’s unique vulnerabilities and strengthened our commitment to proactive, integrated disaster risk management. In this context, the Country Work Programme provides a strategic framework to address the gaps identified in the October 2024 CDM Audit, while also building on Montserrat’s existing strengths to enhance long-term resilience.

Looking ahead, the next phase of the process will focus on developing a performance Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) framework for the CWP. This framework will ensure that implementation remains data-driven, transparent, and aligned with established goals. Once finalized, the CWP is expected to be endorsed at the highest levels of government, including at the Cabinet level.

The Country Work Programme will serve as a national blueprint for implementing CDM, aligning Montserrat’s disaster management efforts across all phases of the disaster cycle: preparedness, mitigation, response, and recovery. The CWP also promotes the active involvement of key stakeholders across all sectors and will ultimately serve as Montserrat’s strategic roadmap for reducing vulnerability and enhancing resilience to both natural and technological hazards.

The development of the CWP is being guided by the results of the Montserrat 2024 Comprehensive Disaster Management Audit, which assessed the island’s disaster risk reduction systems in line with regional and international standards. These stakeholder consultations represent a significant milestone in Montserrat’s ongoing commitment to building a safer, more resilient future through coordinated and comprehensive disaster management.